One Question For Every Atlanta Falcons Position Group
7-10 again? No, but your floor is set. This Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot regime has produced back-to-back 7-10 years with 4-5 win talent amidst one of the biggest burning trash can fires the NFL has seen in recent memory.
So what’s the ceiling now? The record-breaking 2022 Falcons' dead salary cap of $62 Million (30% of the team’s cap space) is buried in a hallow, shallow grave. The stench of a stale hangover has burned off with the demise of the Dan Quinn/Thomas Dimitroff days. The money is spent and you did not have to shop with coupons and discounts this time.
Week One against divisional foe the Carolina Panthers is only days away, yet we are still anxiously awaiting fateful answers. Let’s now explore a few of those questions by position group with what we know.
Quarterbacks
Why is the third quarterback (Logan Woodside) on the 53-man roster?
The San Francisco 49ers’ NFC Championship quarterback injury dilemma made us forebodingly aware of the importance of quarterback depth beyond your starter, and even your backup. When Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson went down, the competition with the Philadelphia Eagles was over.
The NFL’s acceptance of a bylaw by the owners to not count a third quarterback toward the active 48 on gamedays proves the league-wide commitment to not let this happen again. Logan Woodside is the Falcons’ proof of that emergency commitment as well.
The former Tennessee Titans’ practice squad quarterback did well to finish punching his ticket against the Steelers to end the preseason with a 24/31 for 196 yards performance. “I thought he played with pretty good poise," coach Arthur Smith said. "Wasn’t perfect, but I thought the ball placement was pretty good. I thought his decision-making was pretty solid. Logan’s a guy who’s continuing to improve.”
The Falcons may have questions to be answered with starter Desmond Ridder, but we know this much already: Taylor Heinicke is an elite, elite backup. Woodside looks to continue answering the questions that he’s an additional safe, security blanket and deserving of a 53 spot himself.
Running Backs
What is a realistic statistical “expectation” for Bijan?
Strictly looking at running backs, let’s break down Year Two of Arthur Smith’s third-ranked rushing offense. 454 carries, 2,207 yards (4.86 YPC), and 13 rushing touchdowns. That group also added 52 catches, 325 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
RB1 Tyler Allgeier saw 49% of the carries and 31% of the reception share. RB2 Cordarrelle Patterson saw 33% of the carries and 40% of the reception share. The remaining 18% of the carries and 29% of the reception share are gone this year (No Avery Williams or Caleb Huntley).
This team only carries three running backs, so the 18%/29% of volume for Williams and Huntley goes straight to Bijan/Allgeier/CP. The quantity leading RB rusher was Tyler Allgeier with 1,035 rushing yards on 210 carries.
The quantity leading RB receiver was Cordarrelle Patterson with 21 catches for 122 yards. Bijan is going to shatter that receiving number. Whether out of the backfield or slot, this is the biggest area of improvement for this room the average fan is not considering enough.
Acknowledging these are college numbers, still marvel Bijan hung 19 catches and 314 yards in just 12 games last year at Texas. All these stats and concepts considered, it is perfectly within reason to forecast Bijan at 50% of the carries and 50% of the receptions share. Using this and his college averages (within transferable expectations from NCAA to the NFL), I would lock in a projected stat line for Bijan his rookie Falcons season at 227 carries, 1237 yards, and 7 touchdowns. 26 catches, 400 yards, 2 TDs.
Wide Receivers
What is the chain of command after Drake London?
The big receiver duo days of Roddy/Julio and Julio/Ridley are not this era schematically. Arthur Smith is never going to have the amount of capital interest in a WR2 that revs the fan base up like those guys. Drake London and his elite body control, length, and power-forward tendencies are perfect for Smith and his offensive philosophy as a WR1. Beyond him?
Go back to my “offensive philosophy” comment. Trying to classify this depth chart on the receiving end from a general viewpoint is shortsighted. Smith and Fontenot have repeatedly harped on their positionless scheme. Kyle Pitts will be featured outside significantly more than the traditional tight end along with his core inline and slot opportunities.
For perspective, in Pitts’ Pro Bowl rookie year in 2021, he played 248 snaps as an in-line tight end, 286 in the slot, and 237 as a wide receiver in X or Z roles. Bijan Robinson is going to offer slot value more than the standard running back. Jonnu Smith has TE1 upside from a TE2 parking spot.
Consider the variety of personnel packages at Smith’s disposal with this diverse repertoire of athletes. Straight from Smith’s mouth, “It allows you a lot of flexibility," Smith said. "You can get unique with your personnel packages - you can line up where it looks like 22 personnel, 10 personnel, 11, get into empty ... it allows you to put a lot of stress, even just pre-snap, logistically as you're going onto the field. Obviously [Robinson] can carry the football, that's obvious, but you're talking about the screen games, the intermediate stuff, so we feel really good where we're at skill-wise."
I would address it as such from a “traditional” standpoint and a usage/target share standpoint within Ridder’s progressions: London WR1, Pitts WR2, Hollins WR3, Scotty Miller WR4, etc. Jonnu serves more as a traditional inline TE1, while Bijan serves as RB1 with WR2-3 upside in progressions. Make no mistake though: Drake London is the most valuable player on this team in terms of health.
Tight Ends
How does Arthur Smith plan for this room after the “surprising” John Fitzpatrick roster spot over Parker Hesse?
Only three offensive skill-position players played a higher percentage of snaps for the Atlanta Falcons in 2022 than Parker Hesse (62%). Consider that when you ask Arthur Smith what the staff apparently thinks of John Fitzpatrick to give him the final TE spot.
Fitzpatrick has to have shown the team a higher receiving upside than the consensus fan has seen. Even in his championship-winning days at the University of Georgia, Fitzpatrick served the role of inline blocker more than a receiver, posting a three-year stat line of 17 catches, 200 yards, and one touchdown. Maybe the staff also sees an inline skillset that this room lacks outside of him.
Offensive Line
Matthew Bergeron? That's the question.
Matthew Bergeron is the starting left guard for Week One against Carolina. A four-year starter with over 40+ starts, Bergeron’s main experience at Syracuse is at left tackle, with a full season at right tackle to go along with rotational offensive guard experience (very, very minimal).
This positional versatility and extensive snap count repertoire (1,500+ snaps at LT, 400+ snaps at RT, etc.) was Bergeron’s greatest pre-draft trait to go along with his smoothly defined run-blocking technique. In a previous pre-draft article, I explored why I thought Bergeron was a top 7-8 tackle in last year’s class, but flying under the radar as a top three guard prospect in the class, even adding “Bergeron would leave a run-heavy scheme team like the Atlanta Falcons or Tennessee Titans wanting to dial the phone real fast on Day Two.”
All that to say: Bergeron is in the perfect fit to maximize his skillset. The offensive scheme is perfect. The head coach is perfect. The winning window is perfect. The depth chart is perfect. Random, but I’ll never get over this all-access look into the Dallas Cowboys having Bergeron #13 on their big board, and nearly taking him at 26th overall, before ultimately choosing the #12 player on their board, Mazi Smith.
This offensive line returns four out of five starters. Can Bergeron be an improvement over Elijah Wilkinson/Matt Hennessy? I will be stunned if Bergeron is not a second-contract guy for Atlanta.
Defensive Line
What’s a realistic sack goal for the Falcons?
The Falcons had the 31st-ranked sack total in the NFL last year with just 21 sacks. Hell, that was an improvement from a 2021 team that finished last in the NFL by 11 sacks with just 18. Perspectively, the Saints were fifth in the NFL last year with 48 sacks. Not even remotely close.
Here’s the allocation of sacks last year: Grady Jarrett (6.0), Lorenzo Carter (4.0), Arnold Ebiketie (2.5), Adetokunbo Ogundeji (2.0), Rashaan Evans (2.0), Mykal Walker (1.0), Isaiah Oliver (1.0), Abdullah Anderson (1.0), DeAngelo Malone (1.0), and Dee Alford (0.5). 33% (7/21) of last year’s sacks came from players no longer with the team. Now let’s look at who is new and what they brought to their teams last year in terms of sacks: Kaden Elliss (7.0), Calais Campbell (5.5), David Onyemata (5.0), and Bud Dupree (4.0).
Seven sacks walked out the door this off-season, and 21.5 sacks walked into the door this off-season. This doesn’t even include rookie 4th-round pick edge Zach Harrison. Harrison has seemingly exceeded expectations thus far through camp and preseason. We haven’t even started the talk of how these additions help who you already had.
Do you think Grady Jarrett isn’t going to eat not being double-teamed constantly now that he has a legit DT2? Does Arnold Ebiketie take that Year Two breakout step? He finished the season with 28 quarterback pressures and nine quarterback hits in 303 pass-rush snaps. All of this considered, it is perfectly within reason to have the Falcons at 35-40+ sacks this year, which would be up there with the best the team has seen in a decade of thirsting for a rush.
Linebackers
Is this the scariest depth room?
You could argue this linebacker room needs the injury bug vaccine more than any other unit. Mykal Walker’s release was not as surprising as it was for some in the consensus. Switching from Dean Pees’s hybrid 3-4 to Ryan Nielsen’s multiple fronts 4-3 with a sizable run defense specialty opened a window for Nate Landman to shine over Walker for a backup MIKE linebacker role.
It has to be mentioned that your leading tackler for 2022, WILL linebacker Rahsaan Evans, is gone and leaves you 149 tackles worth of production for Kaden Ellis and Troy Andersen to account for this year.
Does DeAngelo Malone take that next step in Year Two as well? Yes, I included Edge rushers (Ebiketie, Carter) in the defensive line/sack discussion from a base package standpoint versus getting too picky with nickel/hybrid players. If Kaden Ellis doesn’t match his green dot potential, this team could be in trouble. If Troy Andersen doesn’t take that expected Year Two step, this team could be in trouble.
Secondary
What is the chain of command beyond A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates III?
Working out Malcolm Butler last week made me question where the staff values the depth in the corner room in terms of health currently. Mike Hughes did return to practice Monday, but what about Jeff Okudah? What Jeff Okudah are we getting when he is back, whenever that may be? Arthur Smith left a lot to be desired with the subtle “We’re optimistic to have Jeff back in the first few weeks.” Nothing burger.
In the meantime, expect veteran Tre Flowers to man the boundary opposite A.J. Terrell with Dee Alford starting at nickel. Catch me being the most excited to see how long Clark Phillips III can be kept off the field as a starter…..Until then he feuds with Mike Hughes for rotational minutes and puts heat on Flowers on the boundary. This safety room is clear as day now that DeMarcco Hellams has claimed the fourth spot over Micah Abernathy and others after a polarizing, dominating, fan-favorite preseason.
In terms of proper expectations and reallocated depth chart position, Richie Grant could be the most exciting going into 2023. Grant played 1,117 defensive snaps last year in a strong safety role. The Falcons played 1,122 snaps in total. A nice 99.6% share of the defensive minutes. The 25-year-old heading into Year Three tallied the most returning tackles on the team with 123, second on the team last year and fourth amongst all NFL safeties.
This was an astronomical Year Two leap for Grant after a rookie season primarily spent in a rotational nickel role, playing roughly 25% of the defensive snaps and special teams starter. Now that a premier back-end center fielder is in place in Jessie Bates III, Grant can naturally play more box safety with increased physicality and cater to his natural skillset.
Lastly, Jaylinn Hawkins brings so much in a backup safety role, a third safety on this depth chart/rotation if you will. Versus boo hoo hoo-ing Hawkins for losing a starting role to Jessie Bates III, relish a backup bringing 20 starts over the past two seasons in your system. Speaking of momentum, Hawkins saw a drastic upgrade in his missed tackle rate from Year One to Year Two from 17% to less than 8%. Having fewer responsibilities/expectations could bring out even more good in Hawkins in Year Three in a developed defensive backroom.
Specialists
Who should be filling in for Avery Williams?
That 79-yard punt return touchdown in the preseason sure was a nice audition tape for Dee Alford. Look, Avery Williams is going to be hard to replace this year while he recovers from injury. His NFL Leading 16.2 yards per punt return led the second-place finisher by an entire three yards. It was not even close. You know what you have in kick return legend Cordarrelle Patterson. In terms of competition for the starting punt return spot, Zay Malone and Matthew Sexton were the only other players to receive punt returns in the preseason besides Alford. Considering neither made the active 53-man roster, seems this was an easy choice for the staff.
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