The Boston Red Sox have been unable to sustain any real run this season, or, truthfully, the last multiple seasons. The team had a five-win streak in April this year, but by and large, they simply hover around .500. The team has the talent to be performing much better, and the general metrics back that up. What exactly is the problem, then?
One major flaw so far for the Red Sox this year has been their lack of success in one-run games. This has been especially evident in the past week, where they have lost four out of five games, three of which by one run and the other by two. They are a competitive team, but ultimately cannot close the deal. With just a slight regulation to the mean from their 4-9 record in one-run games would have them in first place within the AL East.
Why does the team struggle so much in close games? There are several factors, all of which are potentially fixable. The question is, will they be able to fix it? Too many losses now can make their job harder down the line, and the team cannot afford to dig itself too deep a hole to dig out of.
In the aggregate, the Boston Red Sox have strong team statistics and metrics. They have bounced back from a poor start on offense, withstanding injuries in the process. The starting pitching has been solid as well, and in a mediocre American League, this formula should be enough to be near the top of the standings. They sit sixth in fWAR and ninth in wRC+ in the league on offense, and eighth in both fWAR and xFIP on the mound.
It requires a bit more digging to see why the Red Sox struggle to pull out wins in close games and remain hovering around .500 despite ranking far higher than the league average in most statistics. Three flaws stand out in this analysis: defensive metrics, bullpen depth, and clutch-hitting statistics.
Starting with defense, the Red Sox appear to grade out fairly well when it comes to analytical defensive metrics. They are third in overall DEF score as calculated by Fangraphs, which measures Defensive Runs Above Average, but this score is misleading. The sabermetric approach applies positional adjustment, which can skew a team based on specific high-value positions. In this case, Carlos Narvaez and his phenomenal defensive catching metrics, as well as Ceddanne Rafaela in CF, dramatically boost Boston’s score.
When one digs into the defensive metrics, the actual performance is less flattering. They slip about five spots when looking at DRS, and they have committed more errors than any other team in the league, putting them 30 out of 30 in fielding percentage. Those numbers, regardless of DEF, are unacceptable for any team making a playoff push. One error can be the difference between one run scoring and not. In one-run games, that issue is magnified.
The second flaw of the 2025 Red Sox is their bullpen depth. Most fans likely saw that coming. While their ERA on its own sits middle of the pack (at 4.11), and Aroldis Chapman has been a solid closer thus far, other problems have arisen. The team has eight saves, but also eight blown saves (keep in mind, many blown saves happen outside of the ninth inning). They have accumulated just ten holds, the least in the major leagues, and allow tons of inherited runners to score. Clearly, these are all major issues in retaining a lead late in games.
The third and final concerning element, perhaps the hardest to measure, is the Red Sox’s ability to hit in the clutch. Fangraphs have a metric, called “Clutch”, they are used to measure a player or team’s performance when hitting in high-leverage situations (runners on, late game, close game, etc.). In this metric, the Sox sit dead last in the league, despite sitting ninth in batting average with runners in scoring position. In other words, with the game on the line, the 2025 team does not come through with a big hit.
This seems intuitive, given the Red Sox are bad in one-run games. Still, to rank last is alarming. A positive spin is that the team is in more high-leverage situations in the first place, which indicates that one good hit here and there would make the season look completely different. The team has goals to work on, and now it is all about execution.
The three weaknesses for the 2025 Red Sox are all fixable. The team has some strong defensive assets and should decrease its errors as the season rolls on. Alex Bregman, for example, will not put up the number of errors he made in the first few weeks. The offense will be able to hit if they change their process in high-level situations to work with what the pitcher is giving them. The opportunities are there, and the hits will eventually fall.
The area that may require the most work is the bullpen depth. The team did not do enough in the offseason to fill gaps, and it is showing in the regular season. That said, Slaten and Whitlock will be okay and bounce back from a couple of rough outings. Perhaps players from AAA can replace struggling veterans such as Liam Hendricks to give a boost there. If not, a trade may be the best option.
Fans have a right to be frustrated, but most advanced metrics have the Red Sox as the top 10 team they should be. They have the potential, and a few tweaks should turn the close games around and give the Sox a real chance to push for the AL pennant.
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