The Boston Red Sox had a fantastic offseason. They added multiple star players who were expected to come in and make an immediate impact. Among those names were Garrett Crochet as a legitimate ace, Walker Buehler in the middle of the rotation, Alex Bregman as a big bat in the infield, and Aroldis Chapman as a closer. Combine this with their exciting young core, and the Red Sox were set up for success and a trendy pick to win the American League pennant.
It is only a few weeks into the season, but so far, the Red Sox have not looked like the team they were expected to be. They sit at 9-10 as of Tuesday morning, which is only two games out of first place in the division and in the American League as a whole. The team, however, has shown many flaws and holes, something that needs to be identified and addressed if the team has hopes of making a run in the postseason.
The pitching staff has and will continue to be a concern for the squad, especially as injuries continue to pile up. Several metrics, however, indicate this area has been a relative strength for the team. With the fifth highest fWAR (wins above replacement) total, the eighth highest FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching), and the thirteenth highest xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching), the Red Sox grade out as well above average in pitching despite a mediocre ERA that is buoyed by blowout games. Those numbers can be worked with.
What is not acceptable, however, is the performance of the offense. What was supposed to be a strength of the 2025 Red Sox has become a glaring hole that has hurt the team in multiple losses thus far this year. To the naked eye, it does not seem as though much is working. They are whiffing far too often, and when the players do make contact, it feels like it is soft contact.
The naked eye cannot always discern everything, though. Taking a deep dive into the actual analytics can give some insight into where this Red Sox team is offensively, and whether it is an easy fix, bad luck, or an indication of a much larger problem. Individually, several players are having a good start to the season, but how bad is the overall product under the surface?
Looking purely at fWAR, the Red Sox offense looks decent in comparison to the league. They are a bit above average, ranking 11th overall. Yet with just 2.4 fWAR today, that comes in more than 50% less than the leader, the Chicago Cubs, at 5.8. Furthermore, the team wRC+ (runs per plate appearance scaled) is exactly 100. 100 means precisely average in the rating scale, but it places the Red Sox 18th compared to teams thus far this season.
Looking at some other stats, the tale of the Red Sox looks even worse. Their .132 ISO (isolated power) is 21st in the league, their total home runs are 20th, and their 25.7 K% (percent strikeout) is the 3rd HIGHEST in the entire league. While they place in the top half in batting average and are third in stolen bases, it appears the naked eye is correct here, at least in part. The team strikes out too much and does not hit the ball for power. The question then becomes, why?
First, the narrative that the Red Sox do not hit the ball hard is factually wrong, as it turns out. They have a collective 34.1% hard hit rate, fourth in the league, and their soft hit rate of 14.7% is fifth best. They are top ten in exit velocity, barrels, and barrel percentage. If the team is collectively hitting the ball hard, why are the results not there?
Part of the issue is the way the Red Sox are hitting the ball. They are not lifting the ball in the air enough. They are ranked 22nd in fly ball rate, and their ground ball rate is the ninth highest. While they have a top half line drive rate, that is not enough to make up the difference. Hitting the ball hard into the ground is not going to provide the team with power, and that is something that is lacking right now.
A look at the BB/K rates also digs deeper into some of the problems the Red Sox team is having. Their BB/K rate is bottom fourth of the league. The team strikes out a lot, but they also walk at about a league-average rate. What this means is that batters are going deep into counts and taking a lot of pitches.
In and of itself, that is not bad, but it is hurting the Red Sox’s pitch selection. They let pitches go, and in turn let pitchers get ahead in the count, forcing them to chase. It is a passive approach. In general, they are near the middle of the pack in terms of what pitches other teams throw to them, except that they get a much higher dose of curveballs and a much lower dose of sliders than league average. Some of that should stabilize, but it appears curveballs specifically are something the team struggles with.
This is where pitch selection becomes crucial. The Red Sox have the best Z-swing percentage in the league, swinging at more pitches in the strike zone than any other team. They are also in the top 5 in swinging at pitches outside the zone, and overall, they have the second-highest swing rate in the league. Conversely, they are dead last in called strike percentage, yet top 5 in swinging strike percentage.
This is a lot of stats to be throwing out there, but maybe the most essential is the contact percentage. The Red Sox are near the bottom of the league in contact percentage overall. It is not just pitches outside the zone that they struggle with, as they are 25th in both O-contact percentage and Z-contact percentage. In other words, the team does not make contact, period.
A lot of statistics and metrics were just compiled together, and it can be overwhelming. What, precisely, does it all mean? Can the Red Sox offense be fixed, or is it doomed to fail this season?
The short answer is, yes, it can be fixed. It just involves a change of approach at the plate. All the noise in the metrics essentially points to two simplified things: the Red Sox see a lot of pitches and they swing at most of them, especially later in the count, and they cannot hit the pitches they swing at. In other words, they are hacking at pitches in and out of the zone, even if they are not pitches the player is comfortable hitting.
Therefore, a change of approach at the plate is necessary. The Red Sox need to be more aggressive in identifying pitches they can hit. They need to be better at pitch selection, and regardless of the count, they need to swing at those pitches. Whether it is the first pitch in the sequence or a pitch 3-2, if they identify a pitch that they can hit, they need to swing.
This concept seems basic, but it is harder than it seems. When a player falls behind in the count, like the Red Sox have been doing, it makes it harder to identify pitches that they can swing at. Players need to protect the strike zone, and are forced to swing whether the pitch is in or out of the strike zone. This allows the pitcher more flexibility to challenge hitters with pitches they are weak at hitting. Therefore, being aggressive if the opportunity is there becomes critical.
This is something that can be taught, but it is not an immediate fix either. There is no small mechanical tweak or adjustment that can be made, or simple batted ball luck that will improve the results (in fact, the Red Sox have one of the best BABIP luck in the league right now). The players will need to be committed, take advice from the coaching staff, review replay often, and hit the batting cages often to see a variety of pitches. Coaches will also need to push hard on practice to get players fully bought in, but it can be done.
There are a lot of metrics available to measure the start of the Red Sox season. The results have been poor, but some elements of their game remain favorable. They are still hitting the ball very hard when they make contact, so the solution is to make contact more often. Every team would say that, but this team specifically has the foundations in place to do real damage. They just need to be more selective about their swings.
The 2025 Red Sox team is well suited to get there, as they have one of the best lineups on paper in the majors. Add Roman Anthony and, at some point, Marcelo Mayer into the mix, and the lineup becomes a true murderers’ row. No pitcher would want to face that one through nine when it is all clicking. Now, the team just needs to get itself there. They can do it, but the jury is still out on whether they will. If they do, this team vaults back into the championship contention discussion.
For more daily coverage of the MLB on Stadium Rant, click here.
If you love sports, download Stadium Rant from the Apple App Store and join one of the fastest-growing social sports communities. Be sure to follow us on socials too — you can find all our profiles on our Linktree.
