Why The Jaguars’ AFC South Lead Is No Guarantee Of A Division Title

After the recent trades by the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans and the drop-off from the Houston Texans, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC South. Jacksonville is 4-2 and sits in first place in the division while holding a two-and-a-half-game lead. If Jacksonville maintains its lead, it will repeat as division champs for the first time since the AFC Central era in 1998 and 1999.

Here’s why the Jaguars should not get complacent even with the division unfolding:

Don’t Forget 2023

Coming off a magical 2022 season, the Jaguars entered 2023 with high expectations after finishing 9-8 to capture the AFC South crown and advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs after overcoming a 27-0 deficit to the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card game.

Jacksonville opened the 2023 season strong, winning six of its first eight games entering its bye week at 6-2. Under head coach Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence was coming off the best season of his career. In 2022, Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions while earning a Pro Bowl nod.

The supporting cast included 1,000-yard rusher Travis Etienne Jr. and a trio of weapons in Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. The Jaguars also added former first-round pick wide receiver Calvin Ridley, whom they acquired from the Atlanta Falcons in 2022 via trade. On paper, Jacksonville had all the pieces to make another playoff run and qualify for the postseason for the second consecutive season.  

After the bye week, Jacksonville rolled past Tennessee and picked up a pivotal win over the Houston Texans in Week 12, which improved them to 8-3 and built a two-game division lead over Houston and the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture. However, the Jaguars watched it all slip away in the blink of an eye.

Injuries piled up, and dreams of a second consecutive playoff appearance turned into a nightmare of a season. The Jaguars lost five of their next six games by an average margin of 9.8 points, with the offense averaging 18.4 points per game during that stretch after averaging 23.8 points per game through the first 11 games.

It all came down to Week 18, when a win-and-in scenario against the Tennessee Titans awaited, the team they defeated in Week 18 the previous season to clinch the division. This time, Tennessee handed Jacksonville a loss that kept them out of the playoffs. That season, the Houston Texans, led by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans, captured their first AFC South title since 2019 and would repeat that success in 2024.

In the years that followed, Jacksonville failed to sustain any success like in 2022 and after a 4-13 season in 2024, Pederson was fired. Several key players from 2023 remain, including Trevor Lawrence, Foyesade Oluokun, Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. The 2023 campaign will remain a staple in the franchise to never get complacent.

You Cannot Afford To Overlook Anyone

The saying goes, “Any Given Sunday,” and the Jaguars cannot afford to look ahead with the division title in sight and 11 games left in the season. The NFL season is nowhere near over, and the Indianapolis Colts have firsthand knowledge of this.

Last season, the Colts started 7-1 and were among the heavy favorites to win the AFC South. They went as far as trading for Jets Pro Bowl cornerback Sauce Gardner. Indianapolis then lost seven consecutive games and missed the playoffs.

The NFL is a tricky game; any team can be beaten on any given day. This should be a constant reminder for Jacksonville. Before their bye week, the Jaguars faced a 1-4 Houston Texans that, with a win, would have allowed Jacksonville to tighten its hold on the division. However, Houston handed them their second loss of the season heading into the bye week.

Coming up this Sunday, they face a Colts team that has lost three straight games and allowed opponents to score 23.3 points per game over their last three games, while they have not scored 23 points in four of their last five games.

Daniel Jones has struggled this season, throwing for 1,398 yards, four touchdowns and seven interceptions, while completing 59% of his passes and taking 10 sacks in his last two games. Indianapolis fired general manager Chris Ballard, traded Pro Bowl players guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, while running back Jonathan Taylor is on the trade block. Indianapolis has not won in Jacksonville since 2014.

Jacksonville cannot afford to allow the recent news to affect its approach. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence echoed that statement for their upcoming matchup against Indianapolis.

“You always respect your opponent,” Lawrence said. “It’s the NFL you have to play well every week. It doesn’t really matter what’s going on with the team we’re playing. They’re still gonna have a team full of guys ready to go that are going to want to beat us.”

End Of My Jaguars Rant

Fresh off a bye week, the Jaguars enter the second half of the season with the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, with opponents holding a combined winning percentage of .408. Last season, Jacksonville was 4-3 coming out of its bye week before winning nine of its final 10 games. With a favorable schedule, Jacksonville cannot afford another late-season collapse or to get stagnant. Though teams in your division may not have the best record, they are still coming to defeat you.