This week’s Diamondbacks-Mets series is one that prognosticators and informed baseball fans should pay close attention to. The Arizona Diamondbacks have carried their weight and had a respectable start to the 2025 MLB season.
The New York Mets have absolutely fulfilled the hopes and expectations of fans and MLB analysts for the season’s first month. They have overcome early injuries and slow starts from key players to grind out and win the majority of their April games.
Now, as the season enters the warmer month of May on the East Coast, the Mets find themselves sitting alone atop their division. Ace pitcher Sean Manaea is yet to return, but the Mets’ starters have established themselves as a top-shelf rotation. In addition to the solid pitching and steadily productive offence, Juan Soto is starting to show signs of returning to proper form. The New York Mets are looking to lock in their playoff berth early and crush their NL East rivals’ hopes of an eventual pennant race.
The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have been continuing to play in their role. They are an offensive force, with good if not great starting pitching. This is the tag that has been affiliated with this Diamondbacks team for some time. In 2024, power and production came from top to bottom in the batting order.
The same holds for the 2025 version of this National League West contender. Yes, there have been some changes, including key acquisitions and upgrades. Eugenio Suarez is clearing the yard at a career-high pace, while Josh Naylor has already seemingly usurped the run production and power potential that Christian Walker provided.
The highly anticipated signing of 2021 Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes has yet to yield any dividends. Burnes’ last start offered some indication that his stuff is returning to proper form. Tonight, though, will be the first actual test of the former Brewers and Orioles ace as he takes the mound at Citifield in a matchup that, despite being played at the very end of April, could indeed have heavy implications upon season’s end and with the NL wildcard.
Consider the 2024 wildcard race, where the Mets, the Braves, and the Diamondbacks were in a three-way dog fight right to the end, eventually leading to a thrilling tie-breaker double-header. The Mets, Braves, and Diamondbacks were all neck and neck, tied with an 89-73 final record.
The Diamondback, however, were left packing as the odd team out. Why? Well, due to the MLB wildcard tie-breaking rule that reverts to the head-to-head matchups between the teams in contention, the Diamondbacks were left with the worst record of the three.
It was close, wow was it ever, as the Diamondbacks were down 4-3 against the Mets for the season series, and lost five of the seven games that they played against the Braves.
If the Diamondbacks had a slightly more successful April in 2024, they would have easily punched their ticket to the dance. Their April performance was abysmal by their standards. Their record of 11-16, which included a series where the Atlanta Braves swept them, proved to haunt them in the end. One more win, that’s all it would have taken.
The Mets, who also had a slow start to the season, demonstrated the same type of grit, character, and resilience that the Diamondbacks showed to conclude the season. Their record in head-to-head was just a tad better when it came down to the wire.
We all witnessed the Mets’ OMG playoff run in 2024, and it was only made possible due to the Diamonbacks’ terrible showing in April of that season. The Diamondbacks are poised not to make the same mistake again. Corbin Burnes is taking the ball in game two, and with the Mets having already taken game one relatively easily, there is no time to waste. There will be a dog fight for the wildcard once again in 2025. The Diamondbacks cannot afford to let the head-to-head series against any NL contender dictate their fate when it’s all said and done.
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