Pitchers have had to endure some polarizing playing conditions at this early stage of the season, and the stat metrics so far indicate some trends that also reflect that. Polar is the appropriate word used to describe the weather on the East Coast. Apart from the four games that were rescheduled due to rain and frigid temperatures, the ones that were played in New York, Boston, Detroit, and even Washington and Baltimore were subjected to temperatures in the 30-degree range.
This only enhanced the already overpowering stuff of the game’s top starters as opening day arrived in some of the colder venues across MLB. Reigning American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal took to the hill on April 8th on a sunny, but 34-degree day and handcuffed a powerful Yankees batting order, with six shutout innings. Zac Gallon also stymied Yankees hitters when the D-Backs visited the Bronx on April 3rd.
The Arizona ace struck out an incredible 13 while allowing just 3 hits in an otherwise perfect six innings. Then there was up-and-coming Washington Nationals star lefty MacKenzie Gore, who fanned a Nationals opening day record 13, while surrendering just one single through six innings himself.
Colder conditions favor pitchers at this early stage of the season. That is not to suggest that their stuff is any different than what was shown in Spring training or, in the case of these three aces, their careers up to this point. They are elite, and their metrics consistently demonstrate dominance across most measurable categories. There have been some starting pitchers, though, who have shown a considerable jump in their level of efficiency.
What was good is now seemingly great in a few cases. While it might be too early to suggest that the following pitchers are on their way towards All-Star selections and inevitable Cy Young consideration, it is worth noting that their metrics are showing increased dominance. They are proving to be almost unhittable as we approach the second month of the 2025 MLB season.
On the flip side, there are some examples of ace pitchers and household names in terms of pitching prowess who are showing signs of a steady decline. Of course, they are proven MLB stars themselves and have the ability to turn things around on any given start.
Still, it is worth noting that some of the games’ superstars, true artists on the mound and former masters of their craft, are not showing measurable trends consistent with the value and expectations their respective clubs have placed on them.
Here are two examples of pitchers whose micro-level metrics, as well as their more widely known stats, are simply off the charts right now. Conversely, here also, are two well-known hurlers who we are used to seeing deal steady outs, but just aren’t getting it right so far.
Fresh off a dominant 14k performance and win over Cincinnati, Meyer has built a repertoire that is quickly becoming among the very best in the game. His slider and changeup are baffling MLB hitters as the 26-year-old Minnesotan’s slider is currently tops in the game for secondary pitch run value.
Couple this with his above-average fastball and lethal change, and you have a budding ace that carries a whiff rate in the 92nd percentile. Hitters are just plain swinging and missing, while Meyer is delivering.
With an MLB-leading, minuscule ERA of 0.77 heading into his mid-week start in Houston, Bassitt has been dealing like never before in his 11-year MLB career. His cut, 2-seamer is simply dominating at this stage of the season, carrying the kind of run back into the zone that reminds fans of Mariano Rivera, who essentially pioneered the pitch.
The run value on both his cutter and his curveball is in the 98th percentile in MLB. Metrics aside, Bassitt is carrying a confident swagger to his game that can accurately be described as intimidating. He is riding high with confidence right now, and Blue Jays fans are hoping that the rest of the team will follow suit.
Most had predicted the front of the Padres’ rotation to be one of the best in the game for 2025. While Michael King has started off strong, the other perceived ace of San Diego’s rotation, Cease, has not panned out at all so far. His velocity has not changed, but what has is that plain fact that Cease is getting hit hard.
Hitters are barreling him up at a rate of more than 10% of all hit balls. This is a considerably higher rate than last season and especially higher than his during his years in Chicago as the White Sox ace. Cease has the stuff to recover, but will need to locate his fastball more effectively. The Padres have total faith that he will find his way back to form.
The Diamondbacks are betting heavily on Burnes. They hope that he will combine with resident ace Zac Gallon to put pressure on their stacked division rivals, including the newly upstart and rejuvenated San Francisco Giants.
While Burnes has looked gradually better, he has not yet shown any evidence that he deserves a six-year, 210 million (35 million AAV) contract.
Burnes’ cutter is not running with the same level of spin or movement that he has shown in previous years, or even last year. He has the elite curveball that will allow him to get by, but when his 4-seamer loses velocity year over year, hitters will start to sit on it and expect it.
Burnes will continue to battle. The expectations of him are sky high, and he will continue to take the ball every fifth day, but the cutter has to return to proper form for Corbin Burnes to be successful in the stacked National League West.
End of Rant:
It’s still very early in the 2025 MLB season, and the momentum can shift so quickly in baseball. It is still worth noting the electric start that some pitchers have shown so far. While we have come to expect dominance from the ace pitchers that are mentioned here, there have been some high-end, very handsomely paid fireballers who just haven’t lived up to the hype just yet.
As the weather continues to get warmer across all MLB cities, the hitters are bound to start recognizing pitchers’ patterns and capitalizing on their mistakes. There is undoubtedly a grace period among the fan base in Arizona and San Diego, but their patience will begin to run out before too long.
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