After a tumultuous race weekend in Canada, Formula One’s crown jewel, the Monaco Grand Prix, is the race to which everyone’s attention has shifted. It is only made more interesting by the fact that changes are being introduced to the rules, possibly affecting multiple teams, with the leading Mercedes at the helm. So, what will the transition look like, and who will benefit from it most?
The Canadian Grand Prix, entertaining as it may have been for the fans, broke the hearts of many drivers. Lando Norris was forced to retire after an engine problem, his teammate tumbled down the order after an unfortunate early strategy and contact that cost him a penalty, and Fernando Alonso and Sergio Perez both parked their cars in the pit lane long before the race had finished. For no one, however, were the fates as cruel as they were to George Russell.
The Brit began the season at the very top of the standings, taking first place in Australia. It seemed like luck was finally on his side… Only for him to never win again. The following three races were all won by Kimi Antonelli, who had thus created a comfortable cushion between himself and his teammate-turned-rival. Canada was therefore crucial for Russell’s campaign, with many people claiming that it could be the difference between him winning and losing the season.
The race didn’t look exactly like Russell might have wanted it to. Having gotten the pole position on Saturday, he was at the very front, but a bad start put him behind Norris and Antonelli. Russell regained the lead on lap six, beginning a vicious fight between himself and his teammate. The two Mercedes were never too far apart, both pushing with everything they had to win the coveted 25 points.
Entertaining as the fight may have been, the fans didn’t get to see who was better that Sunday, as it finished long before the finish line through the fault of neither of them. On lap 30, Russell’s engine simply gave out, forcing the Brit to retire from a Grand Prix that he was leading. He let his frustration show as he climbed out of the car and watched it be cleared off the track. Antonelli went on to win the race, further increasing the gap between himself and his teammate. The 19-year-old is now 43 points ahead.
Lucky or not, the two Mercedes drivers dominated the Canadian Grand Prix, just like they have been dominating most other races of the 2026 season. However, the status quo might change as new technical regulations are introduced ahead of the Monaco race. One of them might end up being especially impactful for the British team.
Before the season even began, it was revealed that Mercedes had found a way to increase the compression ratio of their engines, creating a loophole that allowed their car to gain additional power. With the introduction of the new regulations, that loophole will now be closed, leading some fans to believe that the team is bound to lose some performance.
Of course, these are only speculations that might end up being nothing more than wishful thinking. Yes, Mercedes is losing their advantage, but they had a lot of time to prepare for it. The car they have created may be simply that good, and there is a chance that the pecking order will stay the same. On the other hand, if it was the increased ratio that kept them on top, the season might get more interesting from Monaco onwards.
All the divagations culminate in one question: Who will win the Monaco Grand Prix? Will Mercedes’ reign continue, or will someone else swoop in and take the glory?
The British team is still the frontrunners, even if simply because of the substantial lead it currently has over all others. No one can be sure how the new regulations will impact their performance, but it is not unlikely that they will achieve something worth being proud of.
On the other hand, there is Ferrari. While they have not had as good a season as they may have hoped for, their performance has been solid. They are the favourites to win in Monaco, as confirmed by many drivers such as Antonelli or Norris. Their car is quick in corners and low-speed sectors and loses time in straights, a combination that has previously caused issues, but which is perfectly fitted for the prestigious street circuit.
If the fight for pole, more important in Monaco than on any other circuit, and then the win is to be held between the two Ferrari drivers, which one of them is more likely to come out on top? The answer is far from straightforward, but I would place my bets on Charles Leclerc. Although his teammate, Lewis Hamilton, beat him last week in Canada, the Monegasque is higher in the standings. On top of that, he is famously quick around his home circuit.
In the past years, only the infamous “Monaco curse” was able to stop Leclerc from succeeding, and with it being removed by his 2024 win, nothing is standing in the way of yet another success. That, paired with the recent extension of his Ferrari contract, bodes well for the driver’s chances.
The jump from Canada to Monaco might end up being more consequential than people currently expect it to be. With the closing of the loophole they’ve been exploiting, Mercedes, among other teams, will find themselves in uncharted territory. Will they be able to persevere despite the changes? Or will someone take advantage of their possible fall from grace?
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