Following the end of the 2024 season, the dominance of the Houston Astros in the American League appeared to be coming to an end. The team just got swept out of the wild card at home against an upstart Detroit Tigers team, outscored 8-3 over two games, and had their lowest full-season win total since 2016. The offense hit a paltry .194/.271/.481 with no home runs, while pitching to a dismal 1.611 WHIP and 4 ERA.
It was a subpar performance for a team that had the sixth-best ERA and second-best batting average in the league. The team was good, but bouts of poor play plagued their season, especially early in the year when they started 10-19 through March and April. The team’s consistency was called into question, signaling the Astros reign on the American League was ending. That wasn’t to mention the slew of players set to be free agents after 2024.
Fast-forward to halfway through the 2025 season, the team holds the third-best record in the MLB, while still maintaining a high-powered offense and pitching staff. In addition, the team is riding a 19-7 June record directly into the All-Star break. It’s the best record from any team by at least two games, per Statmuse.
They did lose a few key offensive players during the offseason, but retained core pitchers to their rotation and staff. It’s clear that letting some of their players go might have not only done little damage, but might have actually helped them to a degree. Why are the Astros doing so well?
Following the conclusion of the 2024 World Series, the Astros had eight players hit free agency. Some of the names included perennial All-Star Alex Bregman, coming off his lowest season since his rookie year, and once seemingly-ageless wonder Justin Verlander. The team also had to deal with the looming prospect of losing pitchers Yusei Kikuchi and Hector Neris.
Out of the eight players that were expected to walk, only outfielder Ben Gamel resigned with the team. That’s not even mentioning the blockbuster trade with the Chicago Cubs, sending Kyle Tucker out of Houston for third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith. On the offensive, side, the loss of Tucker and Bregman signaled a loss of 8.8 war and significant raw power in the lineup.
The team made one major signing in the offseason, Arizona first baseman Christian Walker for a three-year, $60 million deal. In addition, the team made the gusty move to bump longtime second baseman Jose Altuve to left-field, a decision that seemingly made, and still makes no sense. It made even less sense when Bregman chose to sign with Boston rather than return to Houston.
Most of the Astros moves have panned out well save for one major acquisition and one departure.
First, the bad news for the team is that Bregman is once again having a career season. He has the highest OPS of his career since 2019 and continues to boast a strikeout rate under 20%. He’s also on the cusp of hitting .300 for the first time in his career. The veteran third baseman maintains one of the best chase and whiff rates in the entire league this year. Kyle Tucker is also mashing just as good without the Astros.
Second, Walker has performed subpar for the team since his arrival. Every single batting metric has reversed in his first year with Houston, from a home run rate under three percent to nearing a 30% strikeout rate. He’s also on track to have his lowest walk rate since 2018. It’s hard to pinpoint the exact cause of the decline, but an increase first-pitch swings along with more whiffs might explain it. His decline in bat speed doesn’t help.
The good news for the Astros is that their other pickups have performed well. Smith, for example, made his major-league debut this year and has hit very well, batting a .279/.351/.777 slash line. He has seven home runs along with a triple and 13 doubles, plus 33 RBIs. The 22-year-old rookie is jumpy at the plate, but he has the beginning tools to morph into a solid right-fielder.
Paredes, on the other hand, leads the team in home runs, RBIs, and has the second-best OPS on the team. With a strikeout rate under 20% and a jump in his home run rate, he is the perfect candidate for the cleanup spot. Wesneski was a decent fifth-starter before his injury, tossing a 4.50 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP. He does have a problem with the long-ball, surrendering seven home runs in 32 innings.
For the guys that left, they may have saved a lot of money and headaches. Verlander, who the team decided to let walk after a lackluster 2024, is continuing his decline with San Francisco. His strikeout rate is once again under nine, and his home run rate is still inflated. Kikuchi, despite sporting a 2.79 ERA, his dealing with a heightened walk rate and stubbornly-elevated home run rate.
The Astros placed a lot of faith in rebound seasons from their younger and more valuable players. No player needed a breakout season more than shortstop Jeremy Peña.
The 27-year-old placed fifth in Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 and earned a gold glove, stepping in for Carlos Correa’s departure from the team. In 2023 and 2024, however, he was good, but not great, struggling with a low walk-rate and a heightened strikeout rate. He did suffer an injury, however, which could pose a challenge for the team.
Peña’s batting value has surged, thanks to an increase in his batting average from .266 to .322 between 2024 and 2025. He’s seeing his career low in strikeouts and nearing a career high in walk rate. Thanks to a high squared-up rate and wider stance, his contact has gotten much better. If he can bring his chase rate down, he might easily eclipse .400 OBP.
Hunter Brown has turned into an absolute ace for the team, even inserting himself into the Cy Young conversation. The 26-year-old right-hander currently leads the entire league in ERA, the American League in WAR and is in the top-five for strikeouts. You can thank the development of his sinker and slider, along with fantastic control, for his success this year.
Elsewhere, Josh Hader is returning to his All-Star form. His numbers have gone back to his pre-2024 numbers: High strikeouts with low walks and even leading the league in saves. Left-hander Framber Valdez is continuing his streak of dominance, keeping his ERA under 3 with a low home run rate. Even outfielder Jake Meyers is on track to have his best season.
Remember that the Astros are coming off a 19-7 record in the month of June, with the team riding high on excellent pitching and an offense providing support. It’s hard to imagine the pace will be kept up for most of the season, but even an extended streak throughout July could see the team knock off the Detroit Tigers as the kings of the American League.
Look for two things from the Astros in July: One, can they keep up their momentum after the All-Star break? Two, can they remain healthy? If the answer is yes to both questions, expect another appearance in the playoffs.
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