Like last weekend, this weekend will be two parts. We have five stakes races at Saratoga Race Course on Friday, highlighted by the Grade 1, $750,000 Belmont Derby Invitational as part one. A wide open field of eight, led by Kentucky Derby participant Final Gambit, will line up for the nine-furlong contest on the turf.
Before moving forward with a look at this weekend’s action, there were several items about last weekend’s races that should be pointed out.
Starting with The Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs. The winner, Romeo, who set a stakes record (1:08.3), was impressive. However, I noted the runner up Comport, who also ran well, looks to have a running motion that is built for turf racing. He’s only two, and I’m sure it’ll be quite some time before that, if ever, comes to fruition.
In the next race at Churchill, Debutante Stakes winner Percy’s Bar certainly looks like the real deal. Albeit it is early in her career, she possesses a devastating late run and is a beautiful and efficient mover, especially on her right lead. She appears to have a tremendous future.
In the Maxfield Stakes, three races after the Debutante, Verifire, a $1 million son of Authentic, showed a new dimension as he rated slightly off the pace and ran by the early leaders relatively easily late, stopping the clock in a near stakes record of 1:20.3. He improved his record to three for three in the process.
The interesting part about this is that I noticed in his first two races, he ran with his head a little too high. On Saturday, his head was in a much better (normal) spot, signaling maturity and improvement. If he is unbeaten now, while still learning how to run, exactly how good will he be when he has it completely figured out?
One last thought about the Maxfield Stakes, had I seen Flood Zone in the post parade (a clear disadvantage for me writing these articles one or two days beforehand) I never would have selected him to win. It was no wonder he drifted up to 8-1 on the tote board several minutes before post time.
Lastly, Bob Baffert, trainer of Los Alamitos Derby winner Nevada Beach, said he would “probably run in the Travers” at Saratoga Aug 23 next. Good choice, this colt has a big, beautiful stride that is tailor-made for the longer, classical distance races. The only question will be… is he “fast” enough to win that race?
1) My Sweetheart ran her competition off their feet in her (turf) debut. Her most recent works say she will handle the surface switch just fine.
2) Simone closed well, late in her debut after being wide on the turn. With a better trip and more ground, she could be a menace here.
3) Evolution dueled for the lead and pulled away late at Gulfstream in her last.
Also consider: Miss Magical, who rallied late to get second in her debut…another who should like the added distance here….Bay Yaupon will be making her debut in a $150K Stakes race. That’s interesting, being I don’t see anything special in her works, so what gives? The only advice I have is to watch the tote board 3-5 minutes before post time for further clues.
1) Zulu Kingdom is five for six in his career, including winning at G1 last time out.
2) Reagan’s Wit finished a neck behind my top choice while running greenly in March. I love that they scratched last weekend for a rematch this weekend.
3) Again, I say, Tiz Dashing is not as bad as his last two or three races suggest. Monster work last week signals a possible big effort forthcoming. No excuses this time!
Also consider: Revolutionaire overcame a slow early pace to just miss in his last….Strate Cash was visually impressive, winning his debut in California….If you are looking for a longshot, take a look at Flat to da Mat who has quietly improved steadily since late 2024.
1) Luther has been facing much better, and holding his own, overseas of late.
2) New Century is another who has run very well vs better…looms a major threat here.
3) Test Score always fires his best shot and beat New Century by a nose last time.
Also consider: Final Gambit is a late runner who prefers synthetics but was a surprising fourth in the Derby two races back. He stood no chance in his last (short field/paceless race)…..Tank looks to be the dominant early speed and could conceivably take this field gate to wire.
1) I’m sticking to my guns about the very talented Locked. Yes, he is just one for three this year but had legit excuses in both defeats. Don’t forget, his Santa Anita Handicap win was otherworldly.
2) Having won his last two, Awesome Aaron is razor sharp right now.
3) I loved the way Antiquarian battled for the lead, dropped back to third, then dug in to reclaim second in his last as it shows guts and determination.
Also consider: Phileas Fogg who has excellent speed and draws the rail….Honor Marie may have quietly rounded back into top form.
1) Works for Me is an inch shy of coming into this on a three race win streak. The final times of his last two races were excellent and Flavien Prat is your reinsman.
2) Witty is a stretch runner who has clearly and methodically rounded into top racing form.
3) The same can be said for Felix as he too is in good form right now and beat my top pick two races back.
Also consider: Our Shot who was beaten by only five lengths vs much better than these.
End of Rant!
**** Jockey Flavien Prat secured his 2,000th career victory in North America aboard Iron Max as part of a memorable five-win day June 27 at The Belmont at the Big A meet
“Honestly, when I started riding, I never thought in my wildest dreams that I would be here in New York and celebrating 2,000 wins, so I’m very grateful,” Prat said.
**** Two time champion Essential Quality was represented by his first winner June 27 when 2-year-old filly Chopsticks won a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs in her career debut.
*** Trainer Baffert said that Goal Oriented, who finished fourth in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 17, is an expected starter in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational for 3-year-olds at Monmouth Park on July 19. Baffert has won the Haskell a record nine times.
Plans for other notable runners, such as Grade: 1 winner Gaming, 2024 two year old champion Citizen Bull, and Rodriguez, who was fourth in the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga on June 7, have not been finalized.
Gaming worked a half-mile in 47.3 last week.
“Gaming is a good horse,” Baffert said. “I’m glad that he’s back to what he was. But is he better at one turn or two turns?”
“I haven’t decided what I’ll do,” Baffert said of plans for Rodriguez and Citizen Bull.
Other runners such as Barnes, winner of the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes in January (4F- :48 flat) and Madaket Road, second in the Woody Stephens, (3F- :37.4) had recent works, but plans are up in the air for them as well.
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