Jonathan Kuminga, Timberwolves: On Wednesday, we received the news that Kuminga finally found a landing spot. The former top-ten pick and the Minnesota Timberwolves agreed on a two-year, $12.4 million contract. For more NBA breakdowns, check out this article by us here.
Included in this deal is Kuminga having a player option in the second year of the contract. Minnesota has been searching for an answer at the power forward spot after trading Julius Randle and Naz Reid earlier this offseason. Is, Kuminga, the former Atlanta Hawk, actually the right answer to fill this spot?
After declining offers from multiple teams, including the Los Angeles Lakers, Portland Blazers, and Chicago Bulls. Los Angeles specifically offered Kuminga a starting role, unlike Minnesota, but with a more lucrative contract.
It was reported that the Lakers offered the former lottery pick a three-year contract for over $12 plus million annually. Yet he chose to sign with the Timberwolves, signing with their available $6.1 million taxpayer mid-level exception.
In order to make the signing official, Minnesota had to shed salary since they didn’t have space within the second apron. To create the $2.1 million apron space needed to sign Kuminga, the Timberwolves traded Josh Green and cash to the Utah Jazz for Cody Williams and John Konchar. Minnesota also waived and stretched Konchar’s contract to create $2.5 million in cap space.
Kuminga’s offensive fit has some positives as well as some drawbacks. His high-end athleticism makes him a good weapon in transition or cutting into an open lane.
Transition and open-lane basketball situations allow Kuminga to showcase his athleticism. Minnesota’s big acquisition in LaMelo Ball will enable Kuminga to shine. Ball loves to push the pace and get out to play in transition.
Plenty of defensive attention will be paid to Ball and Anthony Edwards. Combine this with Ball being an elite passer and playmaker, and Kuminga will have plentiful opportunities to cut backdoor for easy looks at the rim.
Ball’s and Edwards’ involvement will limit how many times Kuminga will have to create a scoring opportunity himself. This is good because anytime Kuminga has to try to create a scoring opportunity on his own, more often than not he fails to do so. Whether that be attempting to self-create shots at the rim, midrange, or from three.
Kuminga’s never had a creation true and relative shooting percentage over 55.2 percent and +1.1 percent, excluding his rookie season. That year, he was at best the eleventh man in the rotation. In three out of the past four seasons, his creation-relative true shooting was -9.7 percent, -10 percent, and -4.1 percent. When it comes to scoring in the midrange in particular, Kuninga really doesn’t have a midrange game.
Despite Kuminga’s affinity for the midrange, especially short midrange jumpers, he’s never been particularly efficient. These shots, just like his self-creation rim attempts, come after he fails to create any separation from his defender.
For his career, Kuminga has been anywhere from a bad to below-average three-point shooter. Over the past three seasons, his spacing true shooting has never been above 51 percent, while his spacing relative true shooting has been -4.3 percent or worse.
Kuminga can occasionally make a catch-and-shoot three if he’s wide open, but his making that wide-open three will not scare the defense. They’ll leave him open and dare him to make a three-pointer off the catch again.
Opposing teams are right to do so, as Kuminga on catch-and-shoot threes has never shot over 37.3 percent. Not to mention he shoots them on a low volume, as the former Golden State Warrior has never attempted more than 2.4 threes off the catch.
As a passer and playmaker, Kuminga is bad to below-average at best in this aspect. He gets tunnel vision quite frequently and just struggles processing the floor in general.
In potential assists per minute of on-ball time, Kuminga has never been above the 41st percentile in this metric. In bad pass turnover percentage, he has either been in the 47th percentile or below. Edwards and Ball will consistently force defenses to be in rotation or tilted, but whether Kuminga makes the right reads to build off those advantages they create is a question mark.
Defensively, Kuminga has never been more than just below average on this end, and that’s despite having the physical gifts to be a positive defender. Throughout his career, the G League Ignite product has never been above the 49th percentile in defensive DPM.
Kuminga will show flashes of good play defensively, but that’s all it’s ever been because his defensive effort has always been inconsistent. As a defensive playmaker and rebounder, he provides some value, but it’s not that much considering his physical ability.
In forced turnovers, which accounts for steals and offensive fouls drawn, Kuminga hasn’t gone over the 76th percentile. When it comes to generating deflections, he has never eclipsed the 63rd percentile.
Kuminga has seen growth as a defensive rebounder, averaging a career high in defensive rebound percentage and dREB this past season at 17.9 percent and +0.3. He ranked in the 94th and 78th percentile in both of those categories.
What’s your take? Post it in our free sports community at stadiumrant.app, or download Stadium Rant on the App Store.
Will the Timberwolves just magically unlock a new version of Kuminga? Most likely not, but that’s the gamble they’re taking. After missing out on signing LeBron earlier this offseason, Kuminga was their best option to fill the four spot at this point.
Minnesota hopes they can turn a player who’s displayed to only be a low feel player and a ball stopper score first player into a high-level role player. Only time will tell if the Timberwolves turn out to be right.
If you love sports, download Stadium Rant from the Apple App Store and join one of the fastest-growing social sports communities. Be sure to follow us on socials too — you can find all our profiles on our Linktree.
