The Houston Texans get to host the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC Wild Card Round. What are some weaknesses and avenues to victory for both teams? The best bet doesn’t involve either team at all.
The Texans have enjoyed a weak AFC North this season, resting their starters in the final week of the regular season. They have regressed for an offense that was supposed to take a step forward this season. The offense also backs into the playoffs having not cracked 23 points since November.
Quarterback CJ Stroud has taken unjust heat for the offense’s lack of progression. Stroud plays behind what Pro Football Network ranks as the second-worst offensive line, causing him to scramble more frequently than desired. Stroud came just three touchdowns short of his rookie numbers but does have inflated interception numbers, largely due to the terrible O-line.
The defense has been steady this season, allowing an average of 21.9 ppg. Stroud has done his best to get above that every game, but the margin for error is razor-thin. He has done well, considering he plays behind the worst O-line of the playoffs.
The Chargers are the league’s best scoring defense, allowing 17.7 ppg. They boast a better average on the road, allowing just 13.9 ppg. With a favorable matchup, the defense can be expected to continue its dominance. This leads to the offense sticking to the plan.
Quarterback Justin Herbert has been smart, safe, and efficient. Having thrown for 23 touchdowns to three interceptions, it’s the perfect combination of keeping the opposing defense on the field, and still putting up points. The Chargers are also one of two teams with single-digit giveaways this season.
Bodog has the Chargers as a -2.5 point favorite as of early Wednesday. Houston has fallen off course at the wrong time with an average scoring margin of 0.0 this season, falling to -9.7 in Stroud’s final three full games. The Chargers have been getting hot at the right time, only improving their scoring offense and average scoring margin down the stretch. In the last three games of the regular season, the Chargers’ average scoring margin is +27.3 compared to Houston’s.
Bodog has the total of this game set at 42.5 as of early Wednesday, and the under is the play. The Texans’ offense has struggled to put up points recently, and the defense is the star for both teams. Both teams combine to allow an average of 39.6 points against, while neither side has an elite offense.
The Chargers appear to have a favorable matchup, but the Texans can’t be ruled out. If the Texans can protect Stroud, you might find this game going the other way. Expect points to be at a premium for whoever wins.
Howe Fresh
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