Three versus six in the AFC Wild Card game will feature one of the best rivalries in sports. The Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to Baltimore to challenge MVP candidate quarterback Lamar Jackson and the ever-dangerous Ravens.
The Steelers are cold on both sides of the ball, backing into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. Over those four games, the offense is averaging 14.5 ppg, while the defense has given up 27.25 ppg. The initial scoring surge from head coach Mike Tomlin making the controversial decision to start quarterback Russel Wilson has cooled, and the defense has failed to maintain its early season dominance.
The Steelers will need to decide which version of the team is showing up for this game. Will we see the team from mid-November, with the +7.7 average scoring margin, or will we see the steady decline of Pittsburgh continue? Their opponents have the best run defense in the league, which will be a huge concern. The Steelers are best when they can use the run game to open up play-action. They will need to find a way and are lucky to have two different sets of skills in the backfield, in running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
Baltimore is inarguably one of the top two offenses in the league. There’s no telling what the record would be if their defense found themselves earlier in the season. Allowing 24.5 ppg as of mid-December, they cleaned that up to a season average of 21.2, and 9.7 over the final three. The complete opposite of Pittsburgh, Baltimore comes into this one on a four-game win streak, scoring no fewer than 31 and allowing no more than 17.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson had proven consistent and reliable, and the re-emergence of running back Derrick Henry as an elite back has allowed for very little concern offensively. While the defense received criticism early, if they play like they did all of December, everything will be going as planned.
Bodog has the Ravens as -9.5 point favorites as of Wednesday evening. This may seem like a big spread for a Wild Card game between rivals, but it’s plausible considering how both teams played the last few weeks. The Ravens had offense all year, and their defense has seemed to figure it out, while Pittsburgh has declined on both sides of the ball. Baltimore has a league-best average scoring margin of +23.7 over the last three games, while the Steelers’ margin has been -12.7. If Pittsburgh can’t find early-season form, Baltimore will be in for a fun day.
Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this season, including one to Mark Andrews. Andrews has scored in six straight and faces a defense that looks tired. Averaging four targets per game, look for Andrews in the red zone.
Unfortunately, Pittsburgh has fallen off lately, because everyone loves an AFC North rivalry game. If the defense can show up, and Wilson can limit the turnovers, the Steelers have a legitimate chance. They did beat Baltimore earlier this season. Earlier is the keyword and the Ravens are the clear favorites.
Howe Fresh
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