Sunday night saw the release of the men’s college basketball March Madness tournament bracket, setting up the last few weeks of games to decide a champion for the 2024-25 season. Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Florida received the number one seed in each region of the bracket, and each has multiple reasons they are poised to make a run. Every year of the tournament sees unpredictable upsets and lower seeds advancing to the later rounds, but those at the top have the easiest path to making the Final Four in San Antonio.
Duke won the ACC tournament without one of the best players in college basketball Cooper Flagg. Flagg injured his ankle in the Blue Devils’ opening game of the conference tournament against Georgia Tech, but that didn’t stop their success. Even without the projected first pick in the upcoming NBA draft, they handled business and found themselves with the first seed in the East region. Flagg is projected to be ready to go by their first-round game on Friday, according to head coach Jon Scheyer.
The toughest matchup they’ll face in the first two rounds would be against Arizona, who had a late-season surge and have multiple wins against top-ten ranked teams. In a high-scoring game, Duke would most likely come out on top, but Arizona has shown that they ramp up their defense when they play big-time opponents. The two matched up earlier in the season, with the Blue Devils winning by 14 in what was their third-lowest scoring game of the season.
After that, Duke would potentially face off against Alabama or Wisconsin. The Badgers have struggled recently to stop teams from scoring and fumbled the Big Ten Championship against Michigan on Sunday. A matchup against the Crimson Tide could be a must-watch, as both they and Duke have high-powered offenses with multiple NBA-level players. Alabama has the best offense in the country, and though they didn’t make the SEC championship, Mark Sears and head coach Nate Oates will be ready for the Big Dance. Alabama would be Duke’s toughest test of the tournament, as they’ve played more ranked games than nearly any other team in the country.
Florida ran the table in the SEC tournament and looks in their best form of the season heading into the NCAA tournament. They’ve won their last five ranked matchups in dominant fashion, and have already beaten multiple teams on their side of the bracket. They could play Dan Hurley’s UConn in the second round, but the Huskies aren’t the same team that won the last two championships and should be taken care of by the Gators. Maryland could be a tough test in the second round, but they’ve struggled all year against teams like Florida who are near the top in scoring.
Texas Tech, Kansas, and Arkansas could be other later-round matchups for the Gators, but none have the scoring or defensive ability to keep up with the fourth-ranked offense in the country. The only team that could seriously give Florida trouble is Rick Pitino’s St. John’s, who just won their first Big East title in 25 years. The Red Storm differ completely from the types of teams in the SEC, but their hard-nosed defense and ability to slow the game down could be vital against the Gators. Like Florida, St. John’s is hitting their best run of the year, and if these two match up, it could be one of the best games of the tournament.
Winning the Big 12 title, Houston comes in as the first seed in the Midwest region. They easily won the regular season title with one conference loss, and have been absolutely dominant on the defense end of the floor. Their toughest test of the first few rounds would be against Clemson or Purdue, two teams that finished well but don’t have top-80 offensive numbers. They both have impressive wins against ranked teams, but at this point in the year, the Cougars look like they could shut down nearly any team in the country.
After that, the two teams that would most likely move on to face Houston are either Kentucky or Tennessee, two teams with proven success this year on the path to the Final Four. The Wildcats have the offensive firepower and have beaten the Volunteers twice already, but Tennessee has been top-ten ranked for almost all of the season and has collectively been the better squad. Houston lost their two games against SEC teams earlier in the year to Auburn and Alabama, and both Kentucky and Tennessee struggled against them too. The Volunteers seem to be the bigger threat, but Houston has the postseason success and defensive ability that could stop either of these two teams from making it out of the second weekend.
Despite a dominant regular season performance, the Tigers lost in the semifinals of the SEC tournament. They’ve lost three of their last four, and even with the potential national player of the year in Johni Broome, the Tigers have struggled against other top-ranked teams. On their side of the bracket, they should easily get through to the second weekend, but they could face Texas A&M in the Sweet Sixteen, a team they lost to just two weeks ago. In that game, Broome was held to only eight points and the Aggies had a +10 free throw advantage.
If they can beat out Texas A&M, the Tigers would likely face off against Ole Miss, Iowa State, or Michigan State in the later rounds. They’ve beaten Ole Miss twice already this year, and they also managed a two-point win against the Cyclones early in the season. The Spartans would be their toughest test, as they won the Big Ten regular season but lost in the semifinals of the conference tournament. Both teams beat UNC as their only common opponent, but both seem to struggle when shots aren’t going down early. Auburn has been higher ranked all year, but the Spartans could trip them up, especially after they fizzled out at the end of conference play.
In order of how easy a path each number one seed has, it goes Duke, Florida, Houston, and then Auburn. Yes, the Tigers were dominant for most of the season, but they’ve struggled over the past few weeks and are set up to play teams that challenged them earlier in the year. Duke, even without Flagg, seems to be in great form, and their only real test would be against Wisconsin or Alabama, two squads that are experienced but always seem to come up short in March.
Florida has potentially the easiest path to the late rounds, and there’s a chance that they just overpower a St. John’s team that has been great in the Big East but doesn’t have any experience of playing any top-ranked teams from the power four conferences. Like Florida, Houston won their conference and has been great all year, but they’ll have a tough task in potentially facing Tennessee or Kentucky.
While each number-one seed has proven itself multiple times this year, each has also shown signs that they can be beaten. There is always the chance of an unseen upset, but heading into the tournament, each of them still has the best odds to make the Final Four and face off for the 2024-25 NCAA Championship.
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