Heading into rivalry week, the stakes have never been higher for college football’s bubble teams. With the new 12-team playoff format, the committee faces a difficult task in determining who gets in and who’s left out on Selection Sunday.
With seven teams essentially secured, eight programs are still battling for the last three playoff spots. As a result, the stage is set for a weekend loaded with pressure, scenarios, and chaos.
Oklahoma Sooners
The Oklahoma Sooners enter Saturday in a true win-and-in scenario when they host the struggling LSU Tigers. They sit at No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings and hold a 9–2 record.
Oklahoma owns ranked road wins over the Tennessee Volunteers and Alabama Crimson Tide. They have also ranked home wins against the Michigan Wolverines and Missouri Tigers, giving them one of the strongest résumés in the field.
A victory on Saturday would put them in a strong position for Selection Sunday.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Many believe the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are also in a win-and-in scenario against the Stanford Cardinal on Saturday. I do not think that is the case.
Notre Dame is currently in the field and has been dominating as of late. The problem comes if the results around the country create some chaos. The Miami Hurricanes defeated Notre Dame in Week 1, and both teams sit at 9–2. The committee has not honored that result yet, but it will need to on Selection Sunday if both teams finish with the same record.
Notre Dame could also be affected if the BYU Cougars win the Big 12. That result would create a bid stealer and remove an at-large spot. A similar issue could happen if Michigan beats the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday. The Wolverines would have a win over the top-ranked team, and its résumé would likely force the committee to move it into the playoff.
The Fighting Irish need to handle their own game at Stanford. They also benefit from an Ohio State win on Saturday. Help from the Pittsburgh Panthers against Miami and the Auburn Tigers against Alabama would strengthen their position. On championship weekend, they will want the Texas Tech Red Raiders to knock off BYU.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama faces the trickiest remaining path of any bubble team. The Crimson Tide must travel to Auburn on Saturday and win in Jordan-Hare Stadium, a place legendary head coach Nick Saban once called “haunted.”
Auburn enters at 6–5 with an interim head coach and nothing to lose. The Tigers still have talent across the roster, and freshman quarterback Deuce Knight brought a spark to the team last weekend.
History shows that Alabama rarely gets an easy trip to Jordan-Hare. In 2013, the game ended with the famous kick-six. In 2019, backup quarterback Mac Jones threw two pick-sixes in a 48–45 loss after replacing the injured Tua Tagovailoa. In 2021, Bryce Young led a 97-yard touchdown drive with less than two minutes remaining to force overtime and later beat a 6–5 Auburn team. In 2023, Jalen Milroe found Isaiah Bond on fourth and goal from the 31-yard line to win in the closing seconds.
With all the drama surrounding the Iron Bowl, an Alabama win would also send the Crimson Tide into the SEC Championship Game.
The committee showed last year that teams already in the field entering championship weekend don’t fall out, even with a loss. This year, however, there are far more potential bid stealers and playoff-caliber teams in the mix. If Alabama loses that game and falls to 10–3, it will be interesting to see how the committee responds.
BYU Cougars
BYU enters Week 14 at 10–1, highlighted by a home win over the Utah Utes. A victory against the UCF Knights on Saturday would secure the Cougars a spot in the Big 12 Championship.
Many believe BYU must win that game to make the playoffs, and given the strength of this year’s bubble, I agree.
A close loss, though, would still give them a chance and likely earn a look by the committee. All things considered, it would be much safer for BYU to avenge its loss to Texas Tech in Dallas and claim the automatic bid.
Vanderbilt Commodores
The Vanderbilt Commodores enter Week 14 with a real chance to play for a national championship for the first time in the modern era. The path won’t be easy, as they must travel to face rival Tennessee, a team they haven’t beaten since 2018.
Even with a win, Vanderbilt’s résumé is still somewhat thin, even for an SEC team. A victory wouldn’t guarantee a playoff spot, though it would give them a strong case, especially with their compelling story.
Would the committee really leave out a 10–2 SEC team? Given the conference’s prominence, probably not, but nothing is certain this season.
Miami Hurricanes
Since losing to the Louisville Cardinals and the Southern Methodist University Mustangs in late October and early November, the Hurricanes have flown under the radar.
Miami sits at 9–2 and can improve to 10–2 while holding the head-to-head advantage over Notre Dame.
The SMU loss also looks less damaging now. The Mustangs control their own destiny with a win Saturday, potentially earning an ACC Championship spot and a playoff berth.
It’s hard to see how the committee would justify putting 10–2 Notre Dame over a 10–2 Miami team when the Hurricanes already won the head-to-head matchup.
Miami must be careful this weekend against ranked Pittsburgh. Historically, head coach Mario Cristobal has struggled in high-pressure games. A prime example is last year’s Week 14 matchup against the Syracuse Orange, which likely would have earned them a playoff spot with a win.
The Hurricanes also face their first cold-weather game of the season, with temperatures expected in the low 30s in Pittsburgh. It is important to note that Miami has historically struggled in these types of environments.
Utah Utes
Even if Utah finishes 10–2, it seems unlikely the Utes would earn a playoff spot. A loaded bubble and a weak schedule leave them short compared to other teams.
In their two matchups against the top-ranked Big 12 teams, Utah looked inferior. They also lack any other signature wins. The committee will almost certainly take this into account and leave Utah out.
Michigan Wolverines
A win over the top-ranked Buckeyes in The Game on Saturday would almost certainly put Michigan in the playoff. It would stand as the best win of the season among all teams across the country.
The Wolverines have no bad losses, and at 10–2, it would be difficult for the committee to leave them out. If they win Saturday and the Washington Huskies beat the Oregon Ducks, the Wolverines would also have a path into the Big Ten Championship Game on Dec. 6.
A loss to Ohio State would knock Michigan out of playoff contention altogether, though.
End Of My College Football Playoff Rant
All in all, Week 14 promises chaos and unpredictable scenarios for the committee to navigate on Selection Sunday. College football fans should embrace the mayhem, as it creates tough decisions for the committee. This uncertainty and drama are exactly what make college football one of the most exciting sports in the world.
