The Toronto Blue Jays traded for 2020 Cy Young winner Shane Bieber at the trade deadline. In return, the Cleveland Guardians will receive right-handed pitching prospect, Khal Stephen. Bieber has not pitched in the majors since April of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. Here is a look at the deal and the risks involved for both teams.
Toronto’s rotation has been good this season. However, expectations were ramped up when the team unexpectedly found themselves in first place in the always tough AL East. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt have all pitched well. Eric Lauer (6-2, 2.68 ERA) has been exceptional, filling in when Max Scherzer and Bowden Francis have missed time. Alex Manoah is making rehab starts after his Tommy John surgery. With Francis and Manoah not currently available and Scherzer still shaking off the rust, Toronto made the deal for Bieber.
Bieber has pitched just 11 1/3 innings over four minor league rehab starts this season. He has looked great against not-so-great competition, pitching to a 1.59 ERA with 21 strikeouts and only one walk. It remains to be seen what he will do against competition above the Double-A level and how well his arm will hold up. Cleveland shut down his rehab after his first rehab start due to elbow soreness. So far, things have gone better the second time around.
Bieber signed a 2-year deal with the Guardians during the off-season. That second year is a player’s option. If Bieber pitches well, odds are he will opt out and test the market again, making him just a rental for the Blue Jays. If he re-aggravates the elbow or pitches poorly, Toronto will most likely be stuck with him again next year, even if he is unable to pitch. That is what makes this deal risky. That, and the fact that Bieber’s salary, whatever the prorated version ends up being, could put Toronto over the Competitive Balance Tax line. That would move their top 2026 draft pick back ten slots.
When Bieber is right, though, he is one of the best. He didn’t just win the Cy Young in 2020; he won the pitching Triple Crown, leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. He has a career record of 62-32 with an ERA of 3.22, striking out 958 batters in 843 innings.
The Guardians would have been in the same situation, losing Bieber if he pitched well, and being stuck paying him if things went south. So, they chose to trade him for Stephen. The 2024 second-round draft pick was rated as Toronto’s fifth-best prospect. He has made 18 minor-league appearances this season (17 starts), and he has posted a 9-1 record with a 2.36 ERA with 99 strikeouts in 91 2/3 innings. His most recent start was his first since moving up to Double-A.
Cleveland is only 2.5 games out of the last AL wild card spot, but they would have to jump two teams, the Rangers and Mariners, to get in. The Guardians’ closer, Emmanuel Clase, was just put on non-disciplinary paid leave as part of MLB’s ongoing sports betting investigation. Cleveland starter Luis Ortiz was put on similar leave in early July. With all this going on, it looks as if the Guardians have decided to sell at the deadline. Bieber seemed like a good place to start. The team also traded reliever Paul Sewald to Detroit before the deadline for a player to be named later or cash.
Normally, trading for a pitcher who has finished in the Top Ten in Cy Young voting three times would seem like a no-brainer. This is not a normal situation. It was smart for Cleveland to get something for Bieber. Toronto’s end of things is a little murkier. Bieber may never make a single start for the Jays. It is also possible that they end up having to pay him next year, even if he is not pitching well or is still injured. On the other hand, Bieber could look like the Bieber of old and opt out after the season.
A rotation with a healthy Bieber, Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, and Scherzer could be spectacular. That is Toronto’s hope. If they win a World Series, maybe Bieber even re-signs with the team–if they can afford him. The Blue Jays can only hope that they are contemplating that decision after the season. By all accounts, Stephen has looked like the real deal in the minors, so that puts a little more pressure on the Bieber deal working out. After the off-season signing of Anthony Santander for five years flopped in Year One, the Toronto front office really needs a win with this one.
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