The Baltimore Orioles acquired Shane Baz from the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. This trade came out of nowhere, and the only time we heard rumblings about Baz was rumors about him being traded for Ketel Marte. Baltimore was in desperate need of an additional starting pitcher, and they pounced on this situation and remained aggressive after signing Pete Alonso.
The Orioles are getting, at worst, a number four starter here in Baz, as he fits in right after Kyle Bradish and 2025 breakout, Trevor Rogers. Baltimore could still go out there and try to sign an ace-level pitcher in free agency, like Framber Valdez, or sign someone like Ranger Suarez to help bolster their rotation.
Baz is intriguing because he’s 26 years old, has 3 years of team control, and throws five pitches. Those pitches include a four-seam fastball, knuckle curve, cutter, changeup, and slider. Baz had a 4.87 ERA in 2025, but he was much better on the road with a 3.68 ERA compared to at home, where he had a 5.90 ERA. A little bit of this can be chalked up to pitching in a minor league ballpark at home, since Hurricane Milton had severely damaged Tropicana Field.
Pitching in the New York Yankees minor league field can’t take all of the blame for this, though, as he knows that he needs to get better at limiting damage contact.
Baz has dealt with his fair share of injuries, but this past season was the most innings that he’s ever thrown as he struck out 176 batters in 31 starts and 166.1 innings. Before this, the most innings that he threw were in 2024, where he only threw 79.1 innings.
There’s a good amount to like about Baz, as even his underlying metrics and expected stats showed that he was quite unlucky in 2025. His expected ERA was 3.85, expected batting average was .232, and he ranked above average in basically everything but walks and giving up barrels.
Baz’s knuckle curve and changeup were good in 2025, but he definitely has to work on fixing his cutter and slider, as they got hammered hard with a .337 and .429 batting average against. Luckily for Baltimore, they have three years to figure all of this out, but at least he knows that he has two pitches that he can heavily rely on. The fastball had a .244 batting average against, and batters slugged .404 with eight homers off of it. So add that to the list of pitches that Baz and the Orioles have to improve on as well.
Baltimore obviously likes Baz a ton with his close to 25% strikeout rate and 47% ground ball rate paired with his 6’3 frame and fastball that can touch 100 miles per hour, enough to trade for him.
The Rays return for Baz includes four top 30 prospects in the Orioles system, including Slater de Brun, Caden Bonine, Michael Forret, Austin Overn, and a Competitive Balance Round A pick as well.
De Brun is a 5’10 outfielder who was Baltimore’s sixth-ranked prospect and the 37th overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. He’s only 18 years old, and scouts label the lefty as a speedy defensive outfielder with good bat-to-ball skills and an advanced eye at the plate.
Bodine is a 5’10 22-year-old catcher who the Orioles selected with the 30th pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. He hit .326 with a .757 On Base Plus Slugging Percentage in 11 Single-A games. Bodine’s a switch-hitter who’s been raved for having really good contact skills from both sides, and he was an elite framer in college. Even with some athleticism and agility concerns behind the plate.
Forret is a 6’3 right-handed pitcher who’s 21 years old and coming off a 1.58 ERA season in 74 innings in High A and Double A this past season. Scouts label him as having stuff that points in the right direction as he throws two fastballs with his four-seam and two-seam. Forret also has a slider, sweeper, kick change, and splitter in his repertoire, all while maintaining a 7.4% walk rate in 2025.
Overn is a 6’0 22-year-old outfielder who had a combined 123 Weighted Runs Created+ across High-A and Double-A this past season. Scouts rave about his elite speed and defense combo, and they think that he can stick in center field for a long time with elite play. Overn is labeled as a glove-first player, slasher-esque hitter offensively, which every team could use.
The Rays also received the 33rd overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft by way of Competitive Balance Round A. The competitive balance picks are given to teams who have low revenue and act as an additional first-round pick in the 30-40 range.
So all in all for Baz, the Orioles received three top 15 prospects in their system currently, and the other being their 22nd-ranked prospect back for an intriguing yet not fully proven pitcher.
It’s a good time to be an Orioles fan; in years past, they would never in a million years make a move like this for Baz. They would hoard their elite farm system, keep looking to build from within, and spend minimal money in free agency. This is why it helps to have an owner like David Rubenstein who actually cares about their fans and the betterment of the team. It’s a new era in Baltimore, especially after hiring Craig Albernaz to be their new manager in November.
Now they’re signing Pete Alonso and Ryan Helsley, while swapping Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor Ward, and acquiring Baz for a presumed haul being sent back. Who is this new look Baltimore Orioles regime, and what have they done with the old one?
Rays fans should be intrigued because they basically sold high on Baz while potentially getting back their catcher of the future, an interesting pitcher, and two outfielders that, at worst, can be very impactful with their speed and defense skills. Tampa Bay has an extremely intelligent front office, so I wouldn’t be surprised whatsoever if a couple of these guys panned out in the major leagues.
At the end of the day, prospects are lottery tickets, and when you have a window like Baltimore currently has, you have to take your shot.
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