In modern American sports, there are three primary methods for building a franchise. Tanking is among the most controversial, as it requires teams to intentionally lose games. The second one, which is still frowned upon, is building through free agency.
This option garners backlash due to the unpredictability that comes with bringing in a previously successful player to a new city, system, etc. The third is through outstanding scouting and finding high-quality players through the draft.
Although tanking has the best chance of a team securing the opportunity to draft a superstar player, many teams seem resistant to the idea. Whether it be due to pride or simply not being good enough to be selected early, a group of five to ten teams every year end up in the middle of the draft, otherwise known as having a mediocre draft position.
In a league like the NHL, where tons of mid-first-round picks never even make the league, should more teams consider tanking?
Even though the draft lottery is still a ways away, the season standings can provide a general idea of who was “tanking” and who wasn’t.
By the season’s end, each of the bottom five teams appeared to be actively trying to lose hockey games. These teams are as follows in order from worst to “best”: San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, Nashville Predators, Philadelphia Flyers, and the Boston Bruins.
Each team has its reason for being so low in the standings, but all of them share the same goal. Nab the best player in the draft to accelerate their path back to the postseason. Some of these teams, like the Blackhawks, Sharks, and Flyers, already have a strong base of youth talent, while the other three teams are seeking that number one prospect.
There is never a guarantee that their respective picks will hit, but getting to pick from a small pool of elite players increases their chances significantly compared to the rest of the field. In a league where more often than not, top-end draft picks outperform any other draft position pick, it is of the utmost importance to have a high draft pick for a team’s rebuild. However, is tanking a consistently viable strategy? Or could it do more harm than good to the longevity of a franchise?
Looking back at history may provide valuable insight into how successful a tanking year can be. Looking back at every draft from 2016 to 2020 (and not yet further) can provide insights into just how successful tanking may or may not be.
To evaluate if a player was worthy of that selection, a point system has been created.
If the player remains with their original team, they earn one point. Two points are added if the team has made the playoffs with the player on it. If the team has made the playoffs, but without the player, they earn one point. 3 points are earned if that team has made it to the conference championship round (This stacks with the first playoff point set).
Additionally, each player will be awarded 0-4 points based on their level of play compared to the other four selections in that year’s top five (the best player receives four points, while the worst receives zero).
If a player is no longer in the league, they automatically are given zero points.
It should be kept in mind that each of the drafts isn’t relative to each other (ex., Laine isn’t as good as Heiskanen, but rather both selections worked out very well for their respective teams). Additionally, if a player earns more points than another player, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they are the better player. This is intended to indicate the level of success the team achieved in drafting the said player after the tanking season.
| 1. Auston Matthews | Toronto Maple Leafs | 10 Points |
| 2. Patrik Laine | Winnipeg Jets | 9 Points |
| 3. Pierre-Luc-Dubois | Columbus Blue Jackets | 2 Points |
| 4. Jesse Puljujarvi | Edmonton Oilers | 0 Points |
| 5. Olli Juolevi | Vancouver Canucks | 0 Points |
This top five was a mixed bag, to say the least. The Maple Leafs got their franchise goal scorer, and the favorite to break Alexander Ovechkin’s new goal record. The second and third picks have had their fair share of off-ice troubles, but have seemed to find new long-term homes.
Dubois has played an integral role in the Washington Capitals’ surprising success, while Laine has seemed more focused on hockey this year in Montreal.
Picks four and five are where things start to fall off the tracks. Puljujarvi, while not technically out of the league, is about as close as one can get. Juolevi hasn’t played since 2021-2022 with the Detroit Red Wings. Neither guy was able to find their footing in the league, and were massive disappointments to their teams.
This year wasn’t great for tanking teams, as picks six through ten included guys like Matthew Tkachuk and Clayton Keller. 2017 was a somewhat different story, though.
| 1. Nico Hischier | New Jersey Devils | 4 Points |
| 2. Nolan Patrick | Philadelphia Flyers | 0 Points |
| 3. Miro Heiskanen | Dallas Stars | 9 Points |
| 4. Cale Makar | Colorado Avalanche | 10 Points |
| 5. Elias Pettersson | Vancouver Canucks | 5 Points |
The top of the 2017 draft class was absolutely stacked. Heiskanen and Makar have been one of the most important pieces to each of their team, and are invaluable to their success. If not for them, there is a very real case to be made that neither team would have made a conference championship in the past five years.
The number one and two overall picks had very different stories. Hischier, the Devils’ current captain, has consistently led his team to regular-season success. Injuries and inconsistent goaltending have held them back in the playoffs, but Hischier has been solid regardless. Patrick, on the other hand, was dealt a bad hand and was forced to retire from professional hockey at the age of 25. While unfortunate, he still doesn’t earn any points for himself or his team, and their year of tanking was rendered useless.
Pettersson is tough to truly grade. He has shown flashes of greatness, but with his struggles this season, his superstar status remains uncertain. Regardless, the Canucks are a better team with him than without, and he even helped them to the second round of the NHL playoffs last season.
Four out of five teams tanking in 2017 came out quite well, as there was a significant talent drop-off outside of the top five. Two of these teams have even since made a conference championship, with the Avs even winning a cup with the help of their fourth overall pick. Teams tanking in 2018 had a tougher time drafting.
| 1. Rasmus Dahlin | Buffalo Sabres | 4 Points |
| 2. Andrei Svechnikov | Carolina Hurricanes | 8 Points |
| 3. Jesperi Kotkaniemi | Montreal Canadiens | 2 Points |
| 4. Brady Tkachuk | Ottawa Senators | 7 Points |
| 5. Barrett Hayton | Arizona Coyotes | 1 Point |
The high-end talent drafted in the top five wasn’t anything to die for. Dahlin has been the best player on this list, and he’s an incredibly well-rounded defenseman who is both offensively and defensively savvy. Despite that, though, he has failed to reach the postseason with the Sabres. Svechnikov is the player who has earned the highest total points, helping Carolina to make the conference championship on three occasions.
Kotkaniemi has had a drama-filled career, and unfortunately, it isn’t all his fault. He was never able to reach his full potential in Montreal, and when his contract expired and he became a restricted free agent, things became messy. Carolina decided to utilize the offer sheet, giving Kotkaniemi 6.1 million. Montreal had to decide whether to match that offer.
Due to Kotkaniemi’s early struggles, the Canadiens decided not to match it, although they were very bitter about it. Kotkaniemi has yet to reach the hype that surrounded him ahead of his draft year.
Tkachuk was by far the best forward taken in the first round, so good on Ottawa for making the right choice. A physical player and great leader, he has taken Ottawa back to the playoffs this season. Although his first postseason hasn’t gone as planned, it’s a great building block for a young team and captain. Tkachuk and his Senators will surely return and be even more formidable next season.
Barrett Hayton has left the Utah Hockey Club, formerly the Arizona Coyotes, asking for more. As a fifth overall pick, the team has hoped for more production out of the 24-year-old. He has taken positive steps developmentally, but next year will be a make-or-break year for Hayton. He still earns two points and has been a solid middle-six player for a few seasons now.
2019 was the year of misses at the top. Teams tanking had a less-than-desirable year, looking back.
| Jack Hughes | New Jersey Devils | 7 Points |
| Kaapo Kakko | New York Rangers | 7 Points |
| Kirby Dach | Chicago Blackhawks | 1 Point |
| Bowen Byram | Colorado Avalanche | 9 Points |
| Alex Turcotte | Los Angeles Kings | 3 Points |
While not as bad as the 2016 top five, the 2019 draft class got off to a rocky start for teams that were tanking. Jack Hughes has been by far and away the best of the bunch, posting a career-high 99 points in 2022-2023. Since then, injuries have prevented him from breaking the elusive 100-point mark, but one can assume he will eventually reach it.
His team’s success has been measured, as he and the Devils have failed to make the playoffs in all but two of Hughes’ seasons.
Kakko and Dach’s careers have had many similarities. Both of them were highly touted as prospects, with Kakko at one point even being considered as pick 1B to Jack Hughes. Unfortunately, neither has quite lived up to their pre-draft projections, due to injuries and inconsistent play.
This has resulted in both players being drafted by different teams than the ones they initially played for. Kakko is the only player so far to have made the conference championship with his original team and still be shipped off.
Dach has been plagued with injuries. He’s played just 117 out of the possible 246 games in his last three seasons. The unfortunate part is that even when he’s on the ice, the level of play hasn’t been where it needs to be. His first season with the Montreal Canadiens looked promising, as he put up 38 points in 58 games, but he hasn’t been able to replicate those results since.
Bowen Byram is the only player aside from Hughes who has had any sustained success in the league. Byram is a young offensive defenseman who saw his points total reach a career high this season at 38. Playing his first three and a half seasons in Colorado, Byram was okay, but nothing special.
This prompted the Avalanche to trade him ahead of last year’s trade deadline, in which he was swapped with Buffalo Sabres center Casey Mittelstadt. Byram still has plenty of room to grow, but even admits that Buffalo’s disappointing season was no hindrance; Byram found a way to reach new heights.
The fifth pick in this draft saw Alex Turcotte head to the City of Angels. At 24, he has just played his first mostly full season in the NHL. He played 68 games before suffering an upper-body injury that has kept him out of the lineup since, but in that time, he had a respectable 25 points as a rookie. While Turcotte is still developing, he should turn out to be a good defensive center in a bottom-six role.
2020, the year of COVID, nearly every team drafting in the top five had a home run pick.
| 1. Alexis Lafreniere | New York Rangers | 6 Points |
| 2. Quinton Byfield | Los Angeles Kings | 4 Points |
| 3. Tim Stützle | Ottawa Senators | 7 Points |
| 4. Lucas Raymond | Detroit Red Wings | 4 Points |
| 5. Jake Sanderson | Ottawa Senators | 5 Points |
This year was chock-full of talent; all five of these picks have had breakout seasons and will have long careers in the NHL. Ironically, the first pick in this draft has had the least impressive results of the bunch. Lafreniere had a down year this season, following his massive contract extension.
That extension was well deserved, however, as he was one of the Rangers’ best playoff performers, posting 14 points in 16 games. This season, Lafrenière struggled mightily, recording only 17 goals and 45 points in 82 games. The Rangers as a whole need to improve next season, and Lafreniere will be expected to return to form as well.
Byfield, the youngest forward picked in the top five, has seen a steady development curve in his short career. He took a slight step back in terms of point production this season, but also managed to score three more goals. The Kings’ largely defensive system doesn’t do Byfield any favors, but regardless, he has looked good heading into the end of the season. So long as he continues to improve at the rate he is, LA may have their future superstar.
Stützle and Sanderson, the Senators’ selections, have both looked like out-of-the-park home run picks. Stützle is already one of the league’s best playmakers at just 23. He flashed just how high his ceiling is in the 2022-2023 season when he recorded 90 points in just his third season. He hasn’t been able to reach that same mark since, but there’s little doubt that he won’t eventually climb back to the point per game level he’s shown in the past.
Sanderson, on the other hand, has turned into Ottawa’s future franchise defenseman. He is an extremely well-rounded player and excels at moving the puck and creating plays. His hockey IQ is off the charts, and as time goes on, he is only expected to get better.
At number four, the Red Wings went with Lucas Raymond, a left winger from Sweden. In four seasons with the team, Raymond has shown improvement with each passing season. He has been the young lifeblood of a team that desperately needs someone to help them make the playoffs again. He had a career-high 80 points this season, and by the looks of it, that won’t be his career high for long
Outside of a couple of instances, the results are quite telling. The average points for each draft position 1-5 are as follows: first overall, 6.2 points, second overall, 5.6 points, third overall, 4.2 points, fourth overall, 6 points, and fifth overall, 2.8 points. The fourth overall spot is fairly skewed, as it was the Avs who picked in that spot in two of the last five years, and both players had a key role in helping them win a Stanley Cup. Outside of that, though, all draft positions seem to follow the order one would think they would.
First overall had the most consistently good players. Auston Matthews takes the cake as the best number one overall pick from a team standpoint in this five-year window. Matthews was the start of the core four in Toronto and has helped them become one of the most consistently good teams. The playoff success isn’t quite there, but that blame can’t be entirely placed on Matthews. Drafting first after tanking isn’t a surefire hit; guys like Lafreniere and Hischier are proof of that.
Second overall featured many players who haven’t been able to reach their full potential. Laine, Kakko, and Patrick are the main sources of this conclusion, as they’ve all gone through their unique struggles. This goes to show that even selecting a player this high after a season of tanking doesn’t guarantee that the direction of the franchise will change.
Third overall was very much a mixed bag. On one hand, players like Heiskanen and Stützle have been amazing and have moved the needle for their respective teams. However, players like Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Kirby Dach make the third spot much less desirable. It is often true that by the time the first two teams make their picks, the best guys are already gone. If a team’s going to tank, they better do it well.
Fourth overall had the two biggest outliers in this window, as Makar and Byram carry this position. Even though Byram doesn’t play for Colorado, it is undeniable that he played a role in their cup run in 2022. Outside of those two, the quality of players is just about what one would expect. Good guys, but not enough to change a franchise on their own.
Fifth overall is ugly, and teams tanking probably want to avoid drafting outside of the top four. The highest point earners in this spot were Sanderson and Pettersson. Both are great players, to be sure, but they can’t carry a franchise alone. A big reason to tank is to acquire that type of player.
The players themselves are a crucial piece to the tanking puzzle, but ultimately, the team’s success is what matters most. There were 25 players drafted in this five-year window across 19 teams. Of the 19 teams that picked in the top five from 2016 to 2020, some had way more success than others. Of course, this isn’t solely indicative of the player(s) drafted from this period, but the thought behind tanking is that the guy a team takes will propel them to the top of the standings and safely into the postseason.
Out of the 19 teams, 17 of them have made the playoffs since the year that they tanked. The two exceptions to this are the Detroit Red Wings and, unsurprisingly, the Buffalo Sabres. The Red Wings are still going through the “yzerplan”, and while they were close to making the postseason this year, a quiet trade deadline and a disappointing end to the season meant failure once more. The Sabres are well, but they have continually been inept at running the franchise from both a front office and on-ice perspective.
Many of these teams have come close to achieving the ultimate goal, the Stanley Cup, with four teams advancing to at least a conference championship. Edmonton most recently came closest to hoisting the cup last season, losing a heartbreaking Game 7 against the Florida Panthers.
The Stars and Hurricanes have both been to multiple conference championships since drafting in the top five, but have been unable to get over the hump (which could change this year). The Rangers looked to be on the right path to another deep playoff run, but this season was a bit of a headscratcher. Now, they need to head back to the drawing board and hope to return to the postseason next year.
The only team to have won a Stanley Cup after drafting in the top five in recent memory is the Colorado Avalanche. They were the perfect display of tanking and how being bad for a couple of years can help tremendously in the long run. Acquiring players like Makar and Byram has proven that tanking can lead to team success relatively quickly if done correctly.
All in all, tanking, like every other team-building strategy, has its pros and cons. On one hand, it is the most surefire way to acquire top-end talent at a premium price. Picking at the top of the draft also allows a team to choose their player of choice based on team needs and talent. Unfortunately, not every pick works out, though, which can lead to tanking having various risk levels. While players like Matthews and Makar are elite and among the best, others like Laine, Patrick, and Puljujarvi are proof that the tank is not always worth it.
In conclusion, if you’re going to tank, you need to go all out. If you tank to get a pick from 4-6, then there’s a way higher chance of that player not panning out compared to picking first or second overall.
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