The Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs are going to play a Game Seven. A fitting ending to what has been a war in the Western Conference this year. Here’s the path for each team to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals.
The biggest key for the Spurs is Victor Wembanyama’s aggression. When he starts strong, San Antonio usually wins—he averages 34 points per game in their victories this series. The main takeaway: San Antonio needs Wemby to be aggressive from the outset.
In the three losses, Wembanyama is averaging 22.3 points per game. His aggression is paramount because he is the one player the Thunder does not have an advantage against. OKC has built out a roster equipped to guard elite guards.
With players like Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and even Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on defense, elite guard play is usually not an issue for them. An example is De’Aaron Fox’s play. He has averaged 9.2 points on 31.8% shooting from the field in these Western Conference finals so far.
Some of the struggles are due to the rust returning from injury, but a lot of it is caused by the elite wing defense of the Thunder. What the elite wings can’t guard, however, is a 7’5 alien with the skills of a point guard. Wemby is a mismatch for everyone, including the bigs.
The guys most equipped to handle Wembanyama, such as Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren, have no answers. Holmgren is too frail to keep him out of the paint, and Hartenstein isn’t quick enough.
This makes it important that Wemby comes out and sets the town. Force OKC to panic a little on defense and send some desperation double teams. When that happens, the rest of the supporting cast, such as Stephon Castle and Keldon Johnson, can make their impact.
Key takeaway: When Wembanyama outscores Gilgeous-Alexander in this series, the Spurs are undefeated (3-0).
It’s simple. The Thunder have been in this situation before. Last year, they got blown out in two Game Sixes and won resoundingly in the pressure-packed Game Sevens.
Oklahoma City’s biggest advantage is the experience gap. The key is to jump on San Antonio early in Game Seven and get the crowd involved. Let the Spurs’ youth be their biggest enemy as the game progresses, and it is tight.
In the last two playoffs, the Thunder have played in three series that have gone seven games. Interestingly, though, they have never lost back-to-back games in that span. That means they are quick to make adjustments.
A looming question is also Wemby’s endurance. In these playoffs so far, he is averaging less than 33 minutes per game. He has only played one game over 40 minutes.
In a Game Seven, the game will more likely than not be close. The best players normally play 40+ minutes to will their team to victory. Is Wembanyama ready for that?
Oklahoma City’s incredible depth may help keep its starters fresh, while the Spurs could be running out of gas. If the game is close, the depth of the Thunder could be the difference in the end.
There is no other way this could have ended. The top two teams in the conference all year long, ready for battle in a do-or-die game for a spot in the NBA Finals?
Can Wembanyama and company skip steps and be one of the youngest teams to make the finals?
Will SGA continue his quest to cement himself as one of the greatest guards in the game?
So many questions to be answered, and it begins on Saturday at 8:00 ET.
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