Here is a Patriots Texans preview, starting with where and when to watch the game, followed by analysis and a tale of the tape.
Sunday, January 18, 2026, at 3:00 PM EST
ESPN and NBC
Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
The Patriots were tied for the best record in the NFL in 2025. It was a quick turnaround under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel, who is no stranger to the playoffs or the Patriot way. The team had the second-highest scoring average in the league (28.8 points per game) and the fourth-best scoring defense (18.8). The last season that New England was top five in both was 2018, which ended with them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after beating the Los Angeles Rams 13-3 in the Super Bowl.
The Patriots may not have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady this time around, but they do have Coach of the Year favorite Vrabel and the player who should win the MVP, Drake Maye, at quarterback. Maye led the league in completion percentage (72.0), was fourth in passing yards (4,394), and third in touchdown passes (31). He led the league in average yards per attempt and most yards in the air per attempt. He is widely considered the best deep ball thrower in the NFL.
New England also placed sixth in rushing yards per game (129.1), thanks to veteran Rhamondre Stevenson (43.1) and rookie homerun hitter TreVeyon Henderson (53.6). The former has been great between the tackles, hitting the hole like a bowling ball and punishing defenders, which has perfectly set up the latter to use bhis game breaking speed to blow past those same defensive players.
Stefon Diggs led all receivers with 102 targets and 85 receptions for 1,013 yards. Hunter Henry has been the favorite target in the red zone, pulling in seven touchdowns on the season. Five other players hauled in 30 or more catches (Stevenson, Henderson, Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte, and Demario Douglas). Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has tailored an offense impossible to predict, where anyone could get the ball on any play.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots were 8th in the NFL in yards allowed (4,860), and that is in large part due to the fact that they had the fewest missed tackles on the year (71). The Patriots did finish in the bottom half of the league in takeaways (19), quarterback pressures (120), and sacks (35). They have not been especially aggressive, but what they have done has worked. They don’t blitz the whole game. They do it when they have to, and it works when they need it to,
The Texans finished second in the AFC South (Jaguars 13-4) and nabbed a Wild Card bid for the playoffs. They had the 13th-best scoring offense in the league (23.8ppg) and the 2nd-best scoring defense (17.4). It is the third consecutive year that head coach Demeco Ryans has made the playoffs, and the third straight year he’s made it to the divisional round (he lost the previous two). This is thanks in large part to quarterback CJ Stroud.
Stroud finished the season 16th in completion percentage (64.5) for players with 10 or more starts. He was 19th in yards (3,041) and 22nd in touchdown passes (19). It has not been his best season, but he’s managed to ride the defense into the postseason.
Houston also ranked 22nd in rushing yards for the season (1,852), split primarily between Wood Marks (196 carries for 703 yards (3.6ypc) and Nick Chubb (122 carries for 506 yards (4.1ypc). The team’s top target, Nico Collins (120 targets, 71receptions, 1,117 yards, 6 TD’s), has been ruled out for the game. This means the burden of catches will fall on Xavier Hutchinson, Jayden Higgins, and tight end Dalton Schultz.
The team will need to rely on its unstoppable defense. They allowed the fewest yards in the league (4,713) and ranked ninth in sacks (47). On the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round, the Texans allowed just 6 points and 175 total yards. They also forced three turnovers and essentially ended the career of Aaron Rodgers, forcing head coach Mike Tomlin to step down after two decades.
The Texans were 5-3 on the road in the regular season, which is bad news for the Patriots, with all three of their losses on the year coming at home (6-3). The Texans outscored their road opponents 19.8-15.4 while the Patriots outscored their home opponents 28.2-18.2. Against common opponents (Raiders, Bills, Titans, Bucs, Ravens) the Texans went 5-1, ouscoring their opponents 25.2-13.8 with a yard differential of 313.7-268.7. The Patriots, agianst the same foes, went 4-2, averaging 389 yards to 342.8.
It will all come down to whether or not the Texans can score points against the Patriots defense, and whether the Patriots can continue their effecient offense against the vaunted Texans defense. Stroud has more experience, and more importnat, more playoff experience than Maye, but while Maye has had his way with almost every defense in the league this year, Stroud has struggled to gain yards and score points.
On paper this looks like it will be a close and interesting game, but the Patriots have the better quarterback and the better coach, and are going to come out on top when the final buzzer sounds. This one will not come down to the wire.
Patriots 34 – Texans 17
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