As the calendar flips to September, a hotly contested American League Wild-Card race and all six divisions remain up for grabs. But nowhere is that end-of-season spirit more encapsulated than the National League MVP race.
The race for the NL crown is coming down to two terrific players. Four-time MVP and Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani is seeking to become the first player since Barry Bonds to win five MVP awards in his career, and emerging Chicago Cubs superstar Pete Crow-Armstrong is looking for his first.
Both have over 30 home runs, an OPS over .900, and are arguably the captains of their teams. Their defining features and styles of play, however, are going to make for an extremely interesting and heated debate among baseball writers soon. But, at this point, Crow-Armstrong is running away with it while Ohtani is sinking.
There is no question Ohtani is a once-in-a-generation player, from hitting 50 home runs per year and posting a 2.87 ERA in 2025, to throwing a 1.79 ERA in 2026. He is the heart and face of the Dodgers lineup and organization, and the question is whether he will be a unanimous inductee to the Hall of Fame.
Ohtani put up a respectable season this year, clubbing 30 home runs and driving in 79 RBIs. However, there might be signs that age is catching up to him, as his power numbers have sagged from his usual 40 to 50 home runs a year. He’s also seen a dramatic drop in his base-stealing attempts and ability.
It’s important to note that Ohtani’s bat speed gradually decreased with age, going from 77.4 miles per hour in 2023 to 74.6 in 2026. There’s also concern, according to Baseball Savant, that he is getting under the ball and swinging later than he ever has. The good news is that his perfect contact percentage remains elite, along with his batting metrics, despite a 31% whiff rate.
The National League MVP does take into account his pitching abilities, however, which doubles his WAR value. What benefits Ohtani here is that his arsenal remains intact, despite his split-finger fastball tagging a .294 average. His curveball, four-seamer, and sweeper remain his best three-pitch arsenal, with only four home runs surrendered. They all mark improvements from 2025, which is hard for a 32-year-old to do.
On the other side of the National League MVP race, Pete Crow-Armstrong is having a breakout season that’s been a long-time coming. After struggling to a .768 OPS after a second-half collapse, he’s not only solved the mystery of getting on base, but the mystery of slugging, too.
As of Sept. 4, Crow-Armstrong leads the National League in slugging, on-base plus slugging, OPS+, and other sabermetric categories like rOBA. Beyond that, he leads the entire sport in total bases, runs, and overall WAR. Yes, Crow-Armstrong has more WAR than Ohtani’s batting and pitching combined.
It’s been a bit of a difficult road for Crow-Armstrong, who had a sub-.300 OBP in his first two full years of play. That’s in part due to his walk rate surging from just under 5% in 2025 to well over double digits in 2026. In fact, he had a stunning 13.7% walk rate in June of this year when he won NL player of the month.
“It was something that I felt like I could take into the game with me,” Crow-Armstrong told the New York Times earlier this season. “It wasn’t, ‘I gotta swing less to walk. I gotta try harder to swing at this pitch and this other pitch.’ No, if you’re so dialed in on one pitch, then the sh– that looks different, you don’t have to swing whether it’s a strike or not. It’s being comfortable and confident enough being down in the count.”
With writers voting on the National League MVP looking for consistency, talented play, and overall abilities, Crow-Armstrong has developed into a multi-tool player. While he does lead the NL in errors in center field, his 15 defensive runs saved might also give him a boost in his race against Ohtani.
There’s one key here that most are missing: Injuries. Ohtani is dealing with day-to-day discomfort in his knee, biceps, and neck, which might be a sign of his body beginning to break down. It might also explain why his numbers regressed to a .241 batting average and .795 OPS in August. Those are his worst numbers since March and April of 2022, when he was still with the Los Angeles Angels. The fact that he might not pitch for the rest of the year takes away a big factor for him.
Crow-Armstrong, fully healthy, on the other hand, posted his third consecutive 1.000 OPS month for the season and his second month with more than 10 home runs. He’s also a consistent base-stealer, swiping an average of 6.5 bases per month. When someone hits 14 home runs in August, in the middle of a playoff race, eyes are bound to look in their direction.
Expect Crow-Armstrong to block Ohtani from joining Bonds in a very elite category.
This race will be a fun one for baseball fans, especially if Ohtani mounts a serious September performance. Regardless of what happens, it’s also always great to see a young player finally turn it around and have their breakout moment. Crow-Armstrong should make sure his trophy case is ready for that big MVP award.
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