The 2026 NL MVP race has become one of the most compelling award battles in Major League Baseball. For much of the season, Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani appeared to be on track for another MVP award. However, Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has surged into the conversation with an outstanding all-around season.
The two players offer completely different MVP cases. Ohtani is once again producing elite offensive numbers while contributing as a starting pitcher. Crow-Armstrong has emerged as one of baseball’s best five-tool players, combining power, speed and elite defense in center field.
With the regular season entering its final stretch, the question is simple: Should Crow-Armstrong or Ohtani win the 2026 NL MVP?
Crow-Armstrong’s 2026 season has been a major step forward after his breakout campaign in 2025. Through 126 games, he is hitting .281 with 30 home runs, 78 RBIs, 89 runs and 31 stolen bases while posting a .907 OPS. The 24-year-old also recorded his second consecutive 30-home-run, 30-stolen-base season with two home runs on August 17th.
Those offensive numbers would make Crow-Armstrong an MVP candidate by themselves. His biggest advantage, however, comes from what he provides defensively.
The Cubs star has established himself as one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball. Crow Armstrong’s elite range, instincts and athleticism give Chicago significant value that does not show up in traditional offensive statistics. Recent analysis has placed Crow-Armstrong at or near the top of MLB in defensive run value, Outs Above Average and defensive WAR.
That combination makes his NL MVP case unique. Crow-Armstrong can change games with his bat, legs and glove.
The outfielder’s overall value has also been reflected by WAR. Earlier in August, he led MLB in bWAR, with his total reaching 7.5 at one point in the race.
Crow-Armstrong’s recent slump has complicated his argument. The star has gone just 7-for-33 over his last nine contests, although he has still contributed four home runs and seven RBIs during that stretch.
If that slump continues, Ohtani could regain control of the MVP race.
It is difficult to bet against Ohtani because there is no other player in baseball who can provide what he does.
At the plate, Ohtani remains one of the National League’s most dangerous hitters. The two-way player has been around the .290 mark while producing 29 home runs and an OPS near .940. Ohtani offensive production is comparable to Crow-Armstrong’s despite having a much different skill set.
The pitching is what sets Ohtani apart.
Ohtani entered August with an 8-2 record, a 1.79 ERA and 95 strikeouts across 85 2/3 innings in 14 starts. Those numbers are remarkable, even though his pitching workload remains considerably smaller than that of a traditional starting pitcher.
That is the biggest advantage in Ohtani’s MVP case.
Crow-Armstrong can provide elite defense. Ohtani can provide elite offense and legitimate starting-pitcher production. Even if Ohtani does not pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, those innings still add value to his team.
The Dodgers are also reportedly expecting Ohtani to return to the mound soon, which could have a major impact on the final weeks of the NL MVP race.
If Ohtani can finish the season pitching effectively while maintaining his offensive production, voters will have an extremely difficult time overlooking his two-way impact.
The most interesting aspect of this race is that Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani have different ways of creating value.
Crow-Armstrong’s argument is based on complete positional dominance. The center fielder is an excellent hitter, elite baserunner and outstanding defensive center fielder. Ohtani’s argument is based on doing something that has almost no modern equivalent: being an elite middle-of-the-order hitter while also taking the mound as a starting pitcher.
Crow-Armstrong has the clear advantage defensively because Ohtani primarily serves as a designated hitter when he is not pitching. Crow-Armstrong also has a significant advantage on the basepaths, already reaching 30 steals. Ohtani, meanwhile, has been much less active as a baserunner.
Ohtani’s pitching ability gives him an additional avenue of value that Crow-Armstrong simply cannot match.
That makes the final weeks critical.
At this point, Crow-Armstrong has the slightly stronger MVP case.
Ohtani remains the more talented and historically unique player, but the MVP award should reward the player who provides the most value during the season. Crow-Armstrong is contributing at an elite level offensively, defensively and on the bases.
Crow-Armstrong’s 31 stolen bases, 30 home runs and elite center-field defense provide a remarkably complete statistical profile. The Cub’s WAR totals have also placed him among the most valuable players in baseball.
The betting market has reflected that shift. Crow-Armstrong became the NL MVP favorite in August after Ohtani had been the overwhelming favorite earlier in the season.
Still, this race is far from over.
If Ohtani returns to the mound and dominates while continuing to hit at an MVP level, he could easily reclaim the award. Crow-Armstrong, meanwhile, must end his recent offensive slump and continue producing for a Cubs team fighting for postseason positioning.
For now, though, Pete Crow-Armstrong deserves the edge over Shohei Ohtani for the 2026 National League MVP award. Crow Armstrong’s combination of power, speed and elite defense gives him a complete value profile, while Ohtani’s two-way brilliance ensures this could remain one of the closest MVP races in baseball until the final weeks of the season.
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