Betting on the draft? There are plenty of things to wager on, but today, let’s focus on “Draft Team Specials”. These allow bettors to pick which position group each team will select with their first selection of the 2025 NFL Draft. The Lions’ line in this category is favorable and could provide excellent value.
The Lions’ biggest need is edge, and the sportsbooks are leaning into that. Per DraftKings, the current odds are as follows:
Presently, only two other teams have a heavy favorite (-200 or lower)—the Texans (OL, -260) and the Falcons (DL/Edge, -225). The intricacies of line creation and market manipulation are not the subject of this article, but generally speaking, these lines are in the best interest of the sportsbook, and finding ones that can be exploited can be difficult—the Lions line may be one of them.
The Lions are projected to take an edge rusher because of need, something they do not typically care about. General Manager Brad Holmes has repeatedly alluded that drafting for positional need is a bad long-term philosophy. In a media session earlier this week, he said, “When you start chasing need, it’s like that need might make sense for right now at this time. We make these picks for future investments.”
During the 2023 Draft, the Lions drafted RB Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. At that time, they had DeAndre Swift, and had just signed David Montgomery to a lucrative free-agent deal. They followed this up by taking a LB Jack Campbell, TE Sam Laporta, and S Brian Branch, despite their primary need being CB.
A lot will depend on how the draft board falls, but some assumptions can be made based on who the Lions might covet and who might be available when they are on the clock. Some players they might target are North Dakota State OL Grey Zabel, Texas WR Matthew Golden, Alabama LB Jihaad Campbell, and Texas A&M edge Shemar Stewart—all of whom they had a pre-draft visit with. Other players that could be of interest are Texas CB Jahdae Barron, Georgia S Malaki Starks, and Penn State TE Tyler Warren—the latter would likely require a significant trade-up.
If an edge they covet is available at or within striking distance of their pick, the Lions will take him without hesitation. The question is, will there be one? Late in the first round, they’ll likely have a bucket of players they feel comfortable taking, and if that is the case, don’t be surprised if they wait to take a guy like Jack Sawyer or Princely Umanmielen on Day Two.
Thanks to their 2024 success, the Lions won’t walk away from this draft with any blue-chip prospects. Instead, they will look for a player who could become a long-term starter, and their best shot is along the interior offensive line. Zabel is the best prospect at that position who should be available in the 20s. Alabama’s Tyler Booker could also be a realistic option.
The Lions love to take the player atop their positional rankings, even if it’s not a premium position or one of need. Alabama LB Jihaad Campbell and Georgia S Malaki Starks are the best players at their respective positions, and it would not be surprising to see them holding up a Honolulu Blue jersey on draft night.
The Lions’ draft philosophy is unpredictable, making them a potentially profitable team to bet on. Sportsbooks believe they will go DL/Edge (-200), but bettors should avoid this because it is a poor return on investment. OL (+270) is a good value for a likely result, and LB (+1000) and S (+1400) are longshots that could be worth taking.
Remember to set limits, stay within your budget, and if you are in trouble, reach out to a mental health professional or contact the 24-hour gambling-addiction hotline 1-800-GAMBLER.
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