Christian McCaffrey is always the main talking point around this time of the year. Specifically, his health. Fantasy football drafts are beginning, and no one knows if they should take the biggest risk of the year. Let’s take a dive into the fantasy value and the risk vs reward factor of drafting McCaffrey in fantasy this season.
McCaffrey is currently uninjured and ready for training camp with the San Francisco 49ers. This is an early update, and things usually change throughout the course of the offseason leading up to fantasy drafts.
McCaffrey popped up late last offseason with a calf injury that was a major red flag for many owners preparing for their week one matchup. Keep an eye on the injury report all the wya up until it’s time to draft. Things can change very quickly, especially when it comes to someone like McCaffrey.
McCaffrey has impacted fantasy drafts every year with one daring question. Is he healthy enough to take so high in my draft? The answer is almost always no, but the idea of having a potential number one guy fall to the late first-round is just so crazy to many owners. Let’s take a look at each season and where McCaffrey ended up.
In 2025, McCaffrey played in all 17 games for the 49ers. His production followed a similar trajectory as usual. He dominated each game he played and finished as the RB1.
In 2024, things were a different story. He played just four games on the season and was one of the worst draft picks in recent memory. He only averaged 11.9 fantasy points in the games he did play. He missed time due to an Achilles and PCL sprain.
In 2023, he played in 16 games and averaged nearly 25 fantasy points per game. He finished as RB1 for the year.
In 2022, he played all 17 games again and averaged 21 points per game. He finished as RB2 for the year.
In 2021, McCaffrey played in just seven games due to multiple injuries. A Hamstring strain and ankle sprain were the reasons he missed so much time.
In 2020 he averaged over 30 fantasy points a game. The unfortunate news is that he only played in three games. He suffered three separate injuries this year, including an ankle sprain, a shoulder sprain, and a thigh strain.
From 2017-2019, McCaffrey was an extremely reliable back for the Carolina Panthers. He played all 16 games each year and was able to average more than 24 fantasy ppg in two of those years.
McCaffrey is currently projected to be a late first-round pick in fantasy football drafts, but is he still worth that? For a full breakdown of that topic, check out our other article on StadiumRant.
McCaffrey is an absolute steal if you can draft him at the bottom of the first round of your fantasy draft and get 25 ppg for 15+ games. That’s the risk fantasy owners need to decide whether or not to take every season. His ADP is currently averaging around eighth on a majority of platforms. Is that a good spot?
The eighth pick in the first round is a great spot to take a swing on McCaffrey, but a strategy must be built around that selection. A plan must be in order to reach McCaffrey’s backup (Jordan James or Kaelon Black). Another piece of strategy would be to take a second RB when the turn happens in round two. Pairing him with a second top rusher like Ashton Jeanty or Devon Achane would be a good move to solidify your RB slot. This way, if McCaffrey does go down with injury, there isn’t a need to rely on a streamer RB and a low-level RB2 that was drafted in round six.
Drafting McCaffrey anywhere ahead of pick eight would seem like too much of a risk to take. It wouldn’t be as easy to get a top RB2 on the turn to secure a solid backfield year-round. There’s a sweet spot that needs to be determined through the draft process, but right now it looks to be around pick eight for CMC.
Fantasy football drafts are the best way to start the football season. At the same time, some of the decisions that need to be made so early on make it extremely difficult. The annual McCaffrey question mark is the same one that always causes trouble. The risk is tremendous, but so is the reward. The main focus when drafting him would be the strategy built around it. You can’t just take him and move on like any other player. Drafting him has to be like a chess match. You need to know your next move, and maybe your next five.
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