Baker Mayfield’s $165M Contract Extension: Did The Bucs Make A Mistake?

A month ago, all signs were pointing to Baker Mayfield playing this upcoming season on the last year of his contract. Reports said Mayfield and the Buccaneers were far apart on what each side wanted. 

In addition, the former first overall pick later came out and said he felt disrespected and undervalued by the contract offers from Tampa Bay. Instead, yesterday we received the shocking news that the two parties agreed to a three-year extension for Mayfield. With this shocking announcement, it now raises the question: was this the right call by the Buccaneers?

Baker Mayfield Contract Extension Details

When it comes to the details of the contract, it’s a three-year extension for $165 million. In regards to the guarantees of the deal, this new extension will pay Mayfield $110 millionin guaranteed money.

Adding this to the $40 million in guaranteed money Mayfield is already receiving on his contract for this season. Mayfield will now earn $150 million in guarantees from this season through 2029.

The Buccaneers Rationale For Extending Baker Mayfield 

It’s not hard to understand Tampa Bay’s rationale for extending Mayfield; their signal caller for the past three years has shown he can play at a fringe top-ten quarterback level.

Under the playcalling of Liam Coen during the 2024 season, Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards, 41 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and a completion percentage of 71.4%. His completion percentage, passing yards, and touchdowns ranked all ranked top three in the NFL.

Mayfield also graded phenomenal in advanced metrics this season. Recording an 88.93 Total EPA, 51.48% success rate, and 0.146 in EPA per Play and EPA per Dropback, each were top-five finishes in the league.

He’s also not a quarterback limited to only making things happen in the structure of the original play call. Mayfield is more than capable of creating plays out of structure and making something out of nothing when the play breaks down.

Buccaneers Accomplishments During The Baker Mayfield Era

As their starting quarterback, Mayfield has helped lead the Buccaneers to win the NFC South two times in 2023 and 2024. They had a 9-8 and 10-7 record during those two seasons, and in 2023 the former Heisman winner helped Tampa Bay reach the Divisional round.

Tampa knows what they have in Mayfield, and by extending him they avoid entering the quarterback wilderness. Yet this isn’t a clear-cut kind of extension where everyone unanimously agrees he’s worth this kind of money.

Baker Mayfield’s 2023 Season Was The First Sign Of His Inconsistent Play

As much as Mayfield has shown he can produce at a near top-ten level, he’s also shown that his low-end play is bottom-ten quarterback level. During his first year with the Buccaneers in 2023, under the playcalling of offensive coordinator Dave Canales, Mayfield threw for 4,044 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a 64.3 completion percentage.

On this surface, this appears to be impressive quarterback play, but that isn’t the case. This season, in advanced metrics, Mayfield was only above average in three categories. Ranking 13th in Total EPA, 15th in EPA Per Play, and 15th in EPA Per Dropback out of 48 qualifying quarterbacks.

In overall success rate, he was only slightly above average. Mayfield had a success rate of 44.55%, ranking 22nd in the league that season.

Baker Mayfield’s 2025 Season Was A Case In Both Extremes

We saw both extremes of the highs and the lows Mayfield can reach during the 2025 season. In the first eight weeks of the season, he was on fire, leading Tampa Bay to a 6-2 record.

On the surface, Mayfield seemed to be on track for a season akin to 2024. Heading into week nine, he threw for 1,919 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions.

Yet his advanced metrics told otherwise, ranking only 15th and 19th in the league when it came to EPA per play and EPA per dropback. Along with ranking 22nd in completion percentage at 63.9% and 28th in success rate at 43.49%

Not only did the Buccaneers collapse in the second half of the season, but so did Mayfield right along with them. Tampa Bay ended the year with an 8-9 record, and Mayfield threw for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a completion percentage of 63.2%.

Mayfield’s advanced metrics were the worst they’ve ever been while wearing a Buccaneers uniform. Ranking 28th in EPA per play and dropback, 30th in success rate, and 34th in total EPA.

Baker Mayfield’s Success Depends On The Buccaneers’ Rushing Attack

There is a clear pattern we can see during Mayfield’s time with the Buccaneers. This pattern being in order to reach fringe top-ten quarterback play, he needs to play alongside a top-ten run game.

In 2023 and 2025, when his play ranged anywhere from average to bottom-ten quarterback play, Tampa’s rushing attack floundered. Tampa Bay in 2023 ranked 32nd in rushing yards, 32nd in yards per carry, 31st in explosive runs, 32nd in success rate, and 30th in EPA per rush.

In 2025, their rushing attack ranked 13th in success rate and 10th in EPA per rush. They were only 21st in rushing yards, 25th in yards per carry, and 22nd in explosive runs.

Under the direction of Coen in 2024 where Baker had his best season with Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers had a run game that finished top seven in rushing yards, yards per carry, explosive runs, success rate, and EPA per rush.

Baker Mayfield Has A Notable Injury History 

Mayfield also has a history of dealing with injury problems; this past season he dealt with a multitude of injuries. The most significant injuries were a sprained MCL and PCL that he played through, a biceps contusion, and a left shoulder injury that kept him out for the second half of their Week 12 matchup against the Rams.

This problem also dates back to his time on the Browns, where Mayfield played through noteworthy injuries. The biggest example was in the 2021 season, when he played through a torn labrum in his left shoulder. As a result, playing a large part in why his play dropped off from the 2020 season and ended his tenure in Cleveland.

In a physical sport where injuries are unfortunately inevitable, Mayfield doesn’t help himself as much as he could when it comes to avoiding injury. He isn’t the best at avoiding unnecessary hits; when he scrambles, he often seeks out contact, lowering his shoulder and trying to power through a defender.

Instead of sliding or running out of bounds most of the time to lessen the amount of hits he takes. Thus leading him to have a high risk of dealing with injuries, then playing through those injuries, and as a result, is a factor in his play being inconsistent.

End of Baker Mayfield Signs Contract Extension Rant

Mayfield’s combination of not always having the right balance between relentlessly trying to keep a play alive or throwing the ball out of bounds to live and see another day. Tampa Bay has now committed again to a high-variance quarterback.

He isn’t the kind of quarterback who elevates the situation around him; instead, his situation elevates him. Only time will tell if extending him will prove to be the right decision or if the Buccaneers should’ve made this season the last year of the Mayfield era.