After a disappointing 8-9 season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the team and Baker Mayfield headed into contract extension talks this offseason. But after negotiations throughout the offseason, Mayfield and the Buccaneers were far apart on what the other side wanted. For more breakdowns about the Buccaneers check out this article by us.
Mayfield later came out and said he felt disrespected and undervalued by the contract offers from Tampa Bay. Leaving the eight-year veteran quarterback playing this upcoming season on the last year of his contract.
In most situations recently, we see a player of Baker’s caliber, who’s a top-half quarterback in the league, get extended already. So why is this situation different from the others we’ve seen?
Mayfield, during his time with the Buccaneers, has shown his high-end play can be a fringe top-ten level. But has also shown at his low end he plays at a bottom-ten quarterback level.
During his first season with Tampa Bay in 2023, under the playcalling of offensive coordinator Dave Canales, the former first-overall pick delivered basic counting stats of 4,044 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a 64.3 completion percentage.
Based on those, you may believe that’s pretty impressive, but when you look deeper, it’s not that impressive. Mayfield, in advanced metrics, was only above average in three categories. Ranking 13th in Total EPA, 15th in EPA Per Play, and 15th in EPA Per Dropback out of 48 qualifying quarterbacks.
Yet, in overall success rate, Tampa’s quarterback was slightly above average. Mayfield had a success rate of 44.55%, ranking 22nd in the league that season. Tampa Bay’s ground game in 2023 ranked 32nd in rushing yards, 32nd in yards per carry, 31st in explosive runs, 32nd in success rate, and 30th in EPA per rush. Baker’s first season as the Buccaneers signal-caller was solid but not anything spectacular.
During his second season with Tampa Bay in 2024, Mayfield was under the direction of new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. As the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator from the previous season, Canales was hired to be the Panthers’ head coach that offseason.
Heading into the year, it was questioned whether the former Browns quarterback would prove to be more than merely a bridge quarterback. This season, Baker seemed to do just that, going on to have a career year.
Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards, 41 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and a completion percentage of 71.4%. His completion percentage, passing yards, and touchdowns ranked either second or third best in the NFL.
In this season, Baker delivered top-five finishes in advanced metrics. Having a 88.93 Total EPA, 51.48% success rate, and 0.146 in EPA per Play and EPA per Dropback.
Mayfield, alongside Coen, who called a run game that was top seven in rushing yards, yards per carry, explosive runs, success rate, and EPA per rush. Tampa Bay ended the 2024 season averaging the fourth most points per game with 29.5.
This past season, Mayfield was going on his third offensive coordinator in three years with the Buccaneers. His offensive coordinator for this season was Josh Grizzard, since Cohen went on to become the Jaguars’ new head coach in the offseason.
After last season, it appeared Baker went from being labeled a bridge quarterback to now a solidified franchise quarterback. Unfortunately, this previous season was more akin to 2023 than 2024.
Mayfield in the first 8 weeks of the season was on fire, leading Tampa Bay to a 6-2 record. His basic counting stats up to this point were 1,919 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Despite the impressive basic counting stats, he ranked only 15th and 19th in the league when it came to EPA per play and EPA per dropback. Along with ranking 22nd in completion percentage at 63.9% and 28th in success rate at 43.49%
Not only did the Buccaneers collapse in the second half of the season, ending the year with an 8-9 record. So did Baker right along with them, ending the season throwing for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a completion percentage of 63.2%.
Despite finishing tenth in passing yards, out of 45 qualifying quarterbacks, his completion percentage ranked 28th.
Mayfield’s advanced metrics were the worst they’ve ever been wearing a Buccaneers uniform. Ranking 28th in EPA per play and dropback, 30th in success rate, and 34th in total EPA.
A combination of the former Heisman winner dealing with injuries all season, key offensive players missing games or playing through their own injuries. Including the run game not being as successful compared to 2024.
While the Buccaneers’ rushing attack ranked 13th in success rate and 10th in EPA per rush. They were only 21st in rushing yards, 25th in yards per carry, and 22nd in explosive runs.
Even during his tenure on the Browns, Mayfield played through noteworthy injuries. The biggest example being in the 2021 season, when he played through a torn labrum in his left shoulder. As a result, playing a big part in why his play dropped off from the 2020 season and ended his time in Cleveland.
Football is a physical game and injuries, even minor ones, are inevitable. Yet the two-time pro bowler doesn’t help himself as much as he could when it comes to avoiding injury.
He isn’t the best at avoiding unnecessary hits; when he scrambles, he often seeks out contact, lowering his shoulder trying to power through a defender. Instead of sliding or running out of bounds most of the time to lessen the amount of hits he takes.
Combine that with not always having the right balance of never letting a play die or throwing the ball away to live and see another day. Tampa Bay has a high-variance quarterback, where in order to maximize him, he needs to play alongside a top-ten run game.
It was reported the Buccaneers offered Mayfield a two-year extension for $100 million total. The majority of NFL fans didn’t view that as a disrespectful offer, but the 31-year-old quarterback felt the guaranteed money wasn’t suitable.
Mayfield also wanted longer than two years on an extension, leaving us where we are today. Now entering another season with a new offensive coordinator in Zach Robinson and with his back against the wall. How will he respond?
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