As the 2026 NBA Draft approaches, the consensus big board has begun to take shape. With notable names withdrawing from the draft to return to college, there will presumably be some significant buzz around potential risers in the first round. Coming off an impressive freshman campaign, Santa Clara forward Allen Graves could see a substantial rise in his draft projection.
While the counting stats don’t jump off the page, Graves put up an extremely solid freshman season for Santa Clara. Averaging 11.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.9 steals in only 22 minutes per game, he offers a highly productive profile as a connective two-way role player. Despite playing limited minutes, his motor stands out on both ends, giving 100% effort in every opportunity on the floor.
Graves possesses a prototypical frame for an NBA wing, paired with the ability to play bigger than his measurements entail. His most notability physcial traits are his length and strength, allowing him to impact the game in various ways on the defensive side of the ball. The 20-year-old forward leverages his physicality against bigger defenders, bumping offensive players off their spots with elite strength. His length is a notable advantage on the perimeter, reaching block and steal percentages of nearly five. Graves is a versatile chess-piece on the defensive end, profiling as an elite disruptor with the ability to guard multiple positions.
Along with his physcial tools, Graves’ feel for the game stands out in multiple facets. His connective passing ability and short-roll decision-making, screening/cutting, positional rebounding, and general basketball IQ reinforce his profile as a projectible role-player at the next level. Graves’ ability to play without the basketball is a legitimate difference-making trait, and will be solidified by his productivity as a shooter in the NBA. The 6’7 forward shot an impressive 41% from beyond the arc in his freshman season, but was limited in his opportunities, attempting only 2.6 threes per game.
Graves is generally comfortable as a stationary catch-and-shoot option, and his free-throw percentage and shot mechanics back his results. Nevertheless, his ability to knock down shots at a higher volume will greatly impact his success in the NBA.
Generally, Graves is one of the more polished prospects in the 2026 NBA Draft; however, there are a few question marks about his development and athletic translatability at the next level. While he certainly possesses the size, strength, and length for his position, Graves is a fairly average athlete in terms of speed and vertical explosiveness. It’s more likely than not that the projected first-round pick will translate smoothly on the defensive end, but there are valid concerns regarding his ability to handle top-end athletes on that end of the floor.
On the offensive side of the ball, Graves won’t be asked to carry a significant workload, especially not early in his career. While one wouldn’t classify them as “weaknesses”, his shooting consistency with increased volume, as well as play-finishing ability against better athletic competition, will be major swing factors in his success at the next level. Graves certainly possesses the touch and confidence to refine his offensive skillset, but that is far from a guarantee in his projection.
Overall, Graves projects to be the prototypical two-way role player that teams have coveted in recent years. His positional size and length, paired with instincts and basketball IQ, place him in a unique category of the draft, despite not possessing elite upside. His well-rounded profile and physical tools make him an advanced analytics darling, creating an extremely volatile range in which he could be selected. While the versatile forward has most frequently been mocked in the 20’s, he could plausibly rise into the lottery on multiple teams’ boards between now and the draft.
Some of Graves’ most realistic fits could be the Golden State Warriors (#11), Oklahoma City Thunder (#12 or #17), Charlotte Hornets (#14), Detroit Pistons (#21), or Philadelphia 76ers (#22). His translatability and competitive nature could fare well with an analytics-based franchise, and/or a team poised to compete in his rookie season.
While Graves doesn’t project to be an extremely high-ceiling prospect, in recent years, there’s been an uptick in analytics-based approaches to the NBA Draft. Despite not being an elite athlete, Graves offers plus size and length with a natural feel for the game that greatly impacted his impressive on/off splits at Santa Clara. After cementing himself as a surefire first-round pick in 2026, there could potentially be another rise in his projection with just weeks remaining until the draft.
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