2025 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Sovereignty will make his return to the races Saturday in the $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga Race Course.
The three-year-old male division leader will head a field of just five going nine furlongs in the traditional prep race for the “Mid-Summer Kentucky Derby”, the Travers Stakes on August 23rd. The big, beautiful homebred son of super sire Into Mischief appears to lay over this field as his 2/5 morning line odds indicate. A winner of four of seven starts, with earnings of $4,872,800, Sovereignty has had four workouts since his last race, a win in the Belmont Stakes on June 7th.
Owned by global racing powerhouse Godolphin Racing, the dark bay colt did not exactly break any stopwatches as he went four furlongs in:50.4 on June 27th, four furlongs in:48.4 on the 4th of July, five furlongs in 1:02 flat on July 12th and another four furlongs in:49.4 on July 19th, all at Oklahoma, the Saratoga Race Courses’ training track that lies just across the street from the main track.
That said, the Oklahoma surface has been “playing slow” all year long. It hasn’t played this slow in the past decade…give or take a few years. So, all four of those works, especially the one on the 4th of July, are much better than they look. Trainer Bill Mott said those works should suffice and that he “doesn’t need any more.”
Looking at the rest of the small field, does anyone have a chance of pulling off what would be deemed as nothing short of a colossal upset?
Baeza, the second choice on the morning line odds at 4-1, is a $1.2 million, half-brother to Derby winner Mage and Belmont winner Dornoch, who was beaten fair and square Sovereignty in both the Derby and Belmont. That said, he still seems to be improving…tough to tell if he’s gotten good enough to beat Sovereignty… yet.
Sandman, the third choice in the morning line wagering at 6-1, could also pose a threat. Another $1.2 million purchase, this gray colt has been a bit erratic, showing signs of brilliance (Arkansas Derby) at times, yet at other times being a disappointment (Kentucky Derby). Trainer Mark Casse, who won his 4,000th race as a trainer last week, is adding blinkers in this race to keep his horse more focused. Will that equipment change be enough to put him over the top? Possibly. The funny thing about blinkers is that they can help your horse tremendously; however, they can also have the reverse effect.
Next up on the odds board is fourth choice Mo Plex at 10-1, who comes into this race in razor-sharp form, having won two races in a row and has ascending speed figures as well. This good-looking and speedy colt has scored Brisnet Speed Figures of 89, 91, 94, and 97 in his last four races overall, and being unbeaten (two for two) on this oval is an attention getter as well.
Going back to those speed figures, he’ll have to improve again to match up with Sovereignty, who has recorded figures of 94, 103, and an eye-popping 113 in his last three races. The question here is whether Mo Plex is “fast” enough to win. On paper, the answer is no, but we all know races are not run on paper.
Rounding out the field is Hill Road at 12-1. This stretch runner hails from the Chad Brown barn and has also flashed signs of talent in the past. This $350,000 son of Quality Road showed ability in the 2024 Breeders Cup Juvenile back in November when rallying from last of 10 to get the “show dough” (third) behind eventual champion Citizen Bull. He followed that up with somewhat of a disappointing third in the Tampa Bay Derby in Florida, a very nice win in the Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct in New York. Still, he was a distant (almost 10 lengths behind) fifth against Sovereignty in the Belmont Stakes in June.
The bottom line is you can take everything that’s written here with a grain of salt. However, what you can not take with a grain of salt is this….With only four others showing up, in a half-million-dollar race, at one of, if not the, most prestigious venues this sport has to offer, speaks volumes. Even with fewer horses being bred every year, races of this caliber should attract eight, 10, 12, possibly more horses, so exactly where is everybody? What are they afraid of? Or should I ask, “who” are they afraid of?
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