Following a 123-117 victory, the Oklahoma City Thunder have tied the series 1-1 against the Indiana Pacers. While the Pacers threw the first punch, stealing game one, the Thunder issued a championship-caliber response as many expected. As the series shifts to Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indiana, games three and four will be pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2025 NBA Finals.
Despite the NBA Finals being tied, Oklahoma City has looked like the team many people thought they were throughout games one and two. Forcing 39 turnovers through two games, the Thunder have executed their defensive game plan for the large majority of this series thus far. Their communication, help-side defense, and activity have nullified Indiana’s fast-paced offense and forced them into half-court sets and late shot-clock situations.
As they have in a few games of the playoffs, OKC has looked human offensively with occasional dry spells shooting the basketball. As expected, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has carried the majority of the offensive responsibility, averaging 36 PPG (60% TS) with 5.5 assists per game. His aggressiveness early in games has kept the Thunder afloat, along with their suffocating defense. Twenty-four points from Aaron Wiggins helped secure OKC’s game two victory.
While the Thunder have dominated a majority of the series, their fourth-quarter collapse in game one was spearheaded by an extended period of stagnant offense. A large part of this came from the lack of contributions from Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Game two featured a much better version of Holmgren, while Williams is yet to find his rhythm.
Indiana’s inability to take care of the basketball has cost them thus far in the series, and it’s negatively affected their ability to push the ball down the court. Their late-game defense and shot-making put them in position to steal Game One, but they’ve yet to play 48 minutes of competitive basketball. Tyrese Haliburton has yet to find his offense early in games, largely limiting the Pacers’ offensive output through the first three quarters. Getting off to better offensive starts will be vital to their ability to win the NBA Finals.
In what will be the most pivotal game of the series, the Pacers will have the opportunity to steal home-court advantage after splitting the first two games in Oklahoma City. Despite getting outplayed for the majority of the series, Indiana will look to play to their home crowd and potentially strike first early in these games. If the Pacers can get back to their offensive identity and avoid playing half-court offense against OKC, they’ll have an opportunity to jump in front of the Thunder at home.
Oklahoma City has the recipe to build off its Game Two momentum and continue its defensive success from the first two games. Being prepared for the first punch from Indiana, setting the defensive tone early, and finding offensive contributions from Williams and Holmgren will be the keys to their success on the road against the Pacers.
Throughout the remainder of the series, the Pacers will have to avoid relying on their late-game heroics and build leads early in games. As fourth-quarter comebacks have been a recipe for success throughout Indiana’s playoff run, they hadn’t faced a team of OKC’s caliber and defensive process. Haliburton’s offense and rim pressure early in the shot clock will be the key to kick-starting this Pacers offense going forward.
The key to the Thunder’s success in this series is simple–continue to do what you’ve done in this series. OKC has undoubtedly been the better team in the Finals despite their game one collapse, and has forced the Pacers into uncomfortable situations with their suffocating ball pressure.
For the Thunder to win the Finals, one of Williams or Holmgren, if not both, needs to show up offensively. While he’s struggled thus far, J-Dub is due for a big offensive game, and Holmgren is coming off a good one. Taking the pressure off of SGA will be important for OKC on the road.
Regardless of what the scoreboard says, OKC has very clearly been the better team in the series. Fortunately for Indiana, they were able to steal a game on the road, giving themselves a chance to win the series. If Indiana can force some turnovers of their own and push the pace, their offensive production will significantly improve. Haliburton’s early-game aggressiveness will be vital to this offensive uptick. If the Thunder can continue their defensive pressure, solid contributions from the others will be enough to win the series, as we saw in game two.
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