The NFL season is less than 50 days away, and Fantasy Football is about to kick off in a major way. Everyone is running mock drafts, planning their team, and stressing about who to take. Having an early first-round pick is arguably the scariest thing in Fantasy.
While there’s a temptation to go with the superstars of last season, some of them should be avoided early. Whether the hype isn’t worth it, or their 2024 was too good to replicate, here are players to avoid early in Fantasy.
George Pickens joins Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to complete their offensive trio, and some might feel he’s a strong early pick. His numbers won’t improve significantly in Dallas, despite the chatter.
Pickens was the Steelers’ number one receiver last season, catching passes from Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. He finished the year as WR42 and only found the endzone three times. Dak Prescott can sling it when he’s healthy, but Lamb is still WR1 in Dallas. Pickens isn’t big enough to alter that status quo.
It might be insane to put Derrick Henry on any list that says “avoid”, but it might be time to wind down on drafting him early. He had a tremendous first season with the Baltimore Ravens, but at 31 years old, he can’t do this forever, can he?
While Henry seems to have found the fountain of youth, Father Time is undefeated. He’s entering Year 10 in the league and has 136 career starts under his belt, along with 2,355 rushing attempts. While it wouldn’t be stupid to draft Henry in the first round, the risk of a regression is growing slowly.
Brian Thomas Jr. was a stud in his first season with the Jacksonville Jaguars. His being on this list has less to do with him and more to do with his surroundings. The Jags drafted Travis Hunter second overall in April, and the duo he could form with BTJ is scary, but will it be an even one?
Jacksonville is struggling to get off the ground. Trevor Lawrence isn’t the megastar he should be, and with a new head coach in Liam Coen, what does the offense look like? With a loaded running back room and a shiny new receiver, BTJ won’t be a crutch the way he was in 2024. The league is full of young receivers, Thomas isn’t near the top of the pack yet.
It goes without saying that quarterbacks shouldn’t typically be first-round picks in Fantasy Football. For anyone feeling froggy to jump at Patrick Mahomes, slow down. He ended 2024 as QB11, which isn’t a bad position, but certainly not “new goat” status.
While Mahomes is a superstar on the field, he’s not a fantasy stud, and that’s important to remember. In this world, guys like Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff are better options.
Did Saquon Barkley just have the best running back season in decades? Yes, he did. Will he do it again? Don’t bank your fantasy league on it. Barkley is a demon on the field, rushing for over 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2024. It’s important to look back at running backs of the past and consider the possibility of repeat success.
Christian McCaffrey had a monster 2023 season, and it was followed by a miserable 2024. Remember Jonathan Taylor’s 2021 breakout? His 2022 season was a massive dropoff. It’s not certain that Barkley’s production will take a hit in the big 2025, but he was a workhorse last year. Can he do it again?
Barkley’s time with the New York Giants suggests otherwise. He’s never played two full seasons consecutively, and he hasn’t had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons since his first two years. Drafting Saquon Barkley in the top 10 might feel like a no-brainer, but he’s never done this before.
While some of these names might feel like obvious first-round picks, it may be best to let them pass by. Fantasy is all about finding studs later on in your draft, but don’t make mistakes early. There’s nothing worse than taking someone in the first round, only for them to be a complete bust and crumble your team.
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