The Yankees were riding high coming into this ALDS, but things soured quickly. The Bronx Bombers are staring down the barrel of elimination after an anemic showing in the first two games, but they still have hope.
The biggest advantage this Yankees team has moving forward is the fact that they’re playing on their home field. Yankee Stadium was ranked as having the best home-field advantage in the postseason prior to the division series, and that is going to play a huge role moving forward.
First things first, the Yankees ought to be thrilled to be leaving Tropicana Field. They boast an incredibly poor .496 winning percentage at the Trop all time, a stark contrast to the .619 winning percentage they hold against Tampa at home. Simply put, they don’t play well there. Whether the artificial turf played a role in the Yankees’ defensive miscues in Game Two can never be truly known, but it’s definitely a possibility. Getting back to real grass and a familiar environment ought to do them some favors, both mentally and physically.
The Yankees have played much better at home during recent postseasons, and they’ll need to continue doing that to stave off elimination one game at a time.
The Yankees have the clear edge when it comes to the starting pitching matchups moving forward. Max Fried is set to square off against Nick Martinez in Game Three, a matchup the Yankees faithful will like. While Martinez has put together a career year at the ripe age of 36, the Yankees offense will like its chances to wake up against him. He doesn’t feature premier swing-and-miss stuff, instead looking to keep hitters on the ground and throw action pitches early in the count. The Yankees have tagged him for 10 homers in 52 innings across his career, and they’ll be looking to do more of the same on Wednesday.
As for Fried, he’s a great matchup for the Rays. He boasts a strong 1.81 career ERA against Tampa, and his style should help neutralize their offense. Fried will look to take advantage of the contact-oriented, aggressive Rays lineup and force action early in the count, aiming to get soft contact and go deep into the game. If Fried has his best stuff, he’s as good as anyone when it comes to keeping hitters off balance. Should he be able to locate his fastballs, his devastating curveball and sweeper should be able to limit what the Rays can do at the dish.
However, it’s naive to assume that the Rays won’t get on base. They seem to have a knack for bloop singles and grounders with eyes, finding ways to reach base even when they miss the barrel. They then look to push the envelope with their excellent speed and athleticism, something that has troubled the Yankees early on in this series.
Max Fried is probably the best Yankees pitcher to counter that threat, as he is one of the best in the game when it comes to holding runners. He leads all MLB pitchers in pickoffs since making his debut, and he is widely credited with having the best pickoff move in the game. His ability to control the running game should be a great help to the Yankees in Game Three.
Should the Yankees win on Wednesday, they’ll turn the ball over to another tough lefty in Carlos Rodon. He hasn’t pitched yet in the postseason, but he finished the regular season incredibly well. In his last seven starts, he posted a 1.89 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 38.0 innings. There was clamoring from the Yankees fanbase for Aaron Boone to start the veteran southpaw over Gerrit Cole in Game One. It is a testament to the faith the fans have in Rodon at the moment. The former Giant doesn’t have as good of numbers against Tampa as Fried does. Still, there will be a great deal of confidence in him if the Yankees force Game Four.
He’ll face the tough Drew Rasmussen, who almost made history by carrying a no-hitter into the eighth inning in Game One against the Yankees. He’s historically been very tough on the Bronx Bombers, owning a 5-2 record with a 1.81 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP against the Yankees all time. However, the Yankees have gotten to him before. They tagged him for six runs on seven hits back in August, not letting him see the fourth inning. Additionally, seeing him for the second time in the span of a week should be enough to at least give the Yankees offense an opportunity to do some damage.
However, the biggest pitching advantage for the Yankees comes courtesy of the fact that Fried and Rodon are left-handed. The Rays have feasted on righties this year but have struggled against southpaws. They were a bottom-five offense against lefties this season, posting a measly 91 wRC+ with a .315 OBP, .364 SLG, and .678 OPS. They managed only 36 home runs against left-handed pitchers all season long. Almost all of their offense against southpaws came courtesy of the dangerous Junior Caminero. If the Yankees can keep him quiet, then their odds of limiting the Rays’ offensive output in Games Three and Four go way up.
With a significant advantage in the next two games of this series, the goal for the Yankees is to get the ball back in the hands of their ace. Cam Schlittler is lined up to go in a decisive Game Five should the Yankees get there. After an underwhelming start in Game Two, he will be chomping at the bit to get another crack at the Rays in a hostile environment back at Tropicana Field. He’s said himself that he “keeps receipts,” and a smart man would bet on him to shove if the Yankees give him a chance.
Another encouraging thing for the Yankees is the fact that they’ve done this kind of thing before. Back in the “Baby Bombers” era in 2017, a team spearheaded by the emerging superstar Aaron Judge went down 2-0 in the ALDS to the then-Cleveland Indians. They were facing the same predicament they face now: heading back to Yankee Stadium on the precipice of elimination. They turned it around then with a historic comeback that is still remembered fondly to this day, so what’s to say they can’t do it again?
The reality is the Yankees have their backs firmly against the wall. The Rays are a tough team to beat on any given day, and doing so three times in a row is a task that may seem nigh on impossible. Maybe it is. But the Yankees’ focus must shift to winning one pitch, one at-bat, one inning, and one game at a time. They can’t afford to think big picture when there is no guarantee of tomorrow.
The teams that succeed in the postseason are the ones that can take a hit and dish out a bigger one. These next few days will tell Yankees fans if their team is capable of that. Until Game Three, there’s only one thing for the Bronx faithful to tell themselves.
“Every great story happened when someone decided not to give up.” – Gary Sanchez
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