Cody Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, are reportedly looking for a contract in the 6-7 year range. He’s coming off an excellent bounce-back season with the New York Yankees after he was salary-dumped by the Chicago Cubs for Cody Poteet. Bellinger hit .272 with 29 home runs, drove in 98 runs, and had an .813 On Base Plus Slugging Percentage. He also had 4.9 Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement, and a 125 Weighted Runs Created+ in 152 games in his age-29 season.
So what’s not to like about Bellinger? He’s about to enter his age-30 season and can play a multitude of different positions while showing that he can handle the bright lights of a big market.
The Yankees are unequivocally the best option for Bellinger, and his swing fits their ballpark to a tee. To the extent that he only hit .241 with a .715 OPS and 97 wRC+ on the road. Compare this to Bellinger hitting .302 with a .909 OPS and an absurd 152 wRC+ at Yankee Stadium. Every single home run he hit last season was to right field, and if not, it went to right-center field. This is a good reason why teams should have some concerns about him, which could bring him back to New York.
Consistency has also been a problem for Bellinger, as in the last four years, his OPS in order is .654, .881, .751, and .813 this past season. This is also a guy who’s been essentially given up on by numerous teams in the last half-decade. The Los Angeles Dodgers non-tendered the former 2019 National League MVP after back-to-back disastrous seasons in 2021 and 2022.
Bellinger ranks in the 26th percentile in hard-hit %, 20th percentile in bat speed, 24th percentile in average exit velocity, and 51st percentile in expected slugging according to Baseball Savant. He also overperformed his expected batting average, expected slugging, and expected weighted on-base average as well.
Bellinger was easily the Yankees’ second-best player this past season, but you don’t want to commit anything over five years to him at the end of the day. Especially when teams also don’t seem like they’re too keen on giving him the years that he and his representatives are looking for. You never want to bid against yourself, even if you’re in dire need of an additional outfielder like New York currently is.
They’ve handed out long contracts to the likes of DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Hicks, and they both got designated for assignment with multiple years left on their contract. You don’t want to make that same mistake again; there’s a reason why they came into last season without a third baseman. Make smart moves, don’t give in, wait it out, and see where the market lands. It doesn’t seem as if any teams are willing to give him and his agent, Boras, what they want, and they may potentially play their hand.
Bellinger was excellent as a corner outfielder this past season, but his center field value diminished. It helps that he can play first base, his arm is still really good, and he rarely strikes with only a 13.7% strikeout rate as well.
Ideally, the market for Bellinger is somewhere in the $25 million to $30 million range, and it sounds like he’ll get at minimum four years. Two years ago, he was in this same predicament after his first year in Chicago. Bellinger was rumored to get at least a five-year contract, and settled for 3 years and $80 million.
Four to five years theoretically makes sense for the Yankees in terms of Bellinger; if not, just let him go to the highest bidder with the most years. Jasson Dominguez is an option in left field, so is Spencer Jones, and they could also get a platoon bat alongside them to hit left-handed pitching.
New York could also swing a trade for a left fielder by trading from their influx of pitching prospects or major league pitchers like Luis Gil or Will Warren as well.
The Yankees can also give Aaron Judge his Robin by signing Kyle Tucker, especially if his market continues to plummet. With all due respect to Bellinger, he’s more so of a third option.
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