At the beginning of the 2025 Formula One season, it seemed all but sure that the final trophy would end up in the hands of one of the McLaren drivers. They were coming off an incredible second half of 2024, driving the fastest car, and winning race after race. It seemed like nothing could go wrong. Now that there is only one race left before the champion is crowned, we know that the season hasn’t been as perfect as the British team may have expected it to be. The fight for the title is no longer just between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.
The first months of the Formula One season belonged to McLaren. Although Max Verstappen managed the occasional win, he quickly fell away from the top two drivers. At the “lowest” point, he was over 100 points behind Piastri, who sat comfortably at the top of the leaderboards. Despite a rocky start, the Australian quickly regained his footing and secured himself as the main championship contender, doing much better than his immediate rival, Norris.
As they often do in the world of Formula One, though, the tides switched. Suddenly, it was Norris who was doing better, while his teammate struggled. The Brit stepped into the lead, just as Verstappen began slowly but surely creeping back towards the top of the standings. Still, it seemed like he was just too far away to ever be a real threat. Just as his fans were slowly admitting defeat, McLaren’s double DNF in Las Vegas brought him back into contention.
This leads us to the situation we can see today. With one race to go, Norris is in the lead, 12 points ahead of Verstappen in second. Piastri sits at P3, 16 points behind his teammate and four behind the man in second.
Norris is the most obvious pick for the new Formula One champion. He is in the most comfortable situation out of all three, coming into the weekend with a decided points advantage. To win, he doesn’t even need to finish ahead of his rivals, as long as he makes sure they cannot make up the difference. If he ends the Grand Prix on the podium, no matter which stop he stands on, the trophy will be his. He has been doing quite well the past few weekends, so there is no reason to believe that his performance is going to drop off in the final stretch of the fight.
Next, there is Verstappen, the man who has proven that it’s never over until it’s over. Many people counted him out when he fell away from the McLarens, and yet he came back to prove why he is one of Formula One’s best. Now that the fifth championship is back within the realm of possibility, he will surely be determined to make the most out of the chance. The problem for him is that it wouldn’t be enough to win the Grand Prix; he would also need Norris to finish outside of the top three.
Piastri is the least likely of the three of them to become the champion. For quite a few months, he was the driver most fans believed would be added to the Formula One ‘hall of fame’. A streak of underwhelming performances, though, pushed him out of the spotlight. Still, he shouldn’t be counted out just yet. The perspective of losing the trophy has filled him with a new strength and determination. He was flawless in Qatar and would have won the Grand Prix, were it not for McLaren’s terrible strategy. If he can repeat the performance and find a stroke of luck, he might still be able to finish the season on a high.
All things considered, I do think that it will be Norris who becomes the champion, simply because of how comfortable a situation he has found himself in. His winning wouldn’t provide as great a story as Verstappen’s or Piastri’s comeback, but it is the most likely outcome. No matter what, the final Grand Prix will surely be one to look out for. On Sunday, the eyes of all Formula One fans will be firmly fixed on Abu Dhabi.
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