It may seem like a massive logical leap to give last rites to several NFL teams when only two games – 11.76 percent of the season – have transpired. After all, there have been countless turnarounds following a slow start, right?
The short answer is no. While pundits point to historic overachievers such as the 2007 New York Giants and 2001 New England Patriots, those two squads are mere aberrations in the history of teams that begin 0-2.
Following a boisterous Week Two Sunday afternoon, there are nine winless NFL teams, and two more will follow after the pair of Monday night contests. Which of these slow starters can get ready for the first round of the draft next year, and which ones can still expect to compete for a Super Bowl?
The sensational coverage of this football season is certainly off to a better start than the winless teams in pro football. Some Super Bowl champions were mentioned; they’re the exception, not the rule.
Entering play on Sunday, dating back to the advent of the 14-team playoff field in 2020, 41 teams had dropped their first two games. Only five of those teams reached the playoffs.
Going back to 1990, just 11.5 percent of 0-2 NFL teams have advanced to the playoffs.
It goes without saying that history is unkind to teams that dig themselves into a ditch early on.
Not all is lost for the Kansas City Chiefs. The three-time defending AFC champions have had a difficult early schedule, and they’ve also dealt with Rashee Rice’s suspension and Xavier Worthy’s dislocated shoulder.
Those are not excuses, either. Kansas City has looked moribund offensively, to say the least. Relative to the rest of the NFL, Patrick Mahomes and friends are 17th in EPA/play and 13th in yards per play. Mahomes is 14th in EPA/dropback, and his offense is 28th in red zone efficiency, largely due to him.
Mahomes himself is in foreign territory, too. He hasn’t began a season 0-2 since he was in high school.
This is also Mahomes’ first three-game losing streak, going back to the Super Bowl loss against the Philadelphia Eagles. Kansas City is 0-2 for the first time since 2014. With all of the apprehension, it seems the Chiefs are on the precipice of a historically underwhelming year.
Under most circumstances, such trepidation would be justifiable. As fans know, the Chiefs are a dynasty, and they’re the NFL’s standard bearer. Believing the Chiefs are finished is a fool’s errand.
Andy Reid and his boys have very winnable games coming up against the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Las Vegas Raiders. Their itinerary remains excruciating with matchups against the Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills. Despite a difficult gauntlet, it’s important to remember that the Chiefs have taught us this: unlike James Bond villains, make sure they’re dead before walking away.
Beyond Kansas City, the eight other 0-2 squads simply don’t have the winning pedigree and components necessary to alleviate their blemishes. The Chiefs are the only 0-2 team to keep the faith in.
Stop if you’ve heard this one before: the New York Jets have a quarterback problem. From Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith and Sam Darnold to Tim Tebow, Zach Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, there’s now Justin Fields, a proven bust. Think the Jets have issues developing quarterbacks who can play at an NFL level yet?
Through two games, the Jets rank 22nd in yards per play, 18th in EPA/play, and Fields is just 23rd in EPA/dropback. New York’s perceived unit of strength, the defense, is 29th in EPA/play, and has relinquished an opposing passer rating of 110.6. Fields was ruled out yesterday with a concussion, his second notable injury since training camp.
In an apparent dash to the finish line for the worst record in the languid AFC “Least”, the Miami Dolphins are pantomiming the Jets as best they can. Miami’s signal caller, Tua Tagovailoa, has fewer EPA/dropback than Caleb Williams, Spencer Rattler, and the aforementioned Fields. When asked about his propensity for interceptions coming in bunches at times, Tagovailoa offered an intriguing exchange with a reporter.
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel also downplayed any internal concerns about his now-precarious job security.
Miami has not won a playoff game since December 30th, 2000. It seems that drought of futility will continue for one of the NFL’s emblems of 21st-century mediocrity.
The only marching the New Orleans Saints have done post-Drew Brees is in place. They’ve been stuck in perpetual complacency, with no exit strategy, rebuilding plan, or methodology.
In eight career NFL starts, quarterback Spencer Rattler has produced zero victories. His 5.3 yards per attempt and 7.4 yards of average depth of target rank 31st and 21st, respectively – although Rattler did have a career-best performance on Sunday.
At 0-2, like New Orleans’ wildcat counterpart in the Carolina Panthers, they can start planting their daisies. The Saints are one of the oldest teams in the NFL, and still have ample salary cap issues to iron out. Listen for “We’ll Frown to Draft Caleb Downs” chants as the season progresses.
Give credit where credit is due: the Carolina Panthers refused to wave the white flag when they faced a 27-9 deficit entering the fourth quarter yesterday. They still lost, 27-22, and moral victories don’t count in the win column, but the Cardiac Cats are possibly showing signs of vivaciousness.
Embattled quarterback Bryce Young performed admirably. Carolina’s top performer, however, was rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who registered six catches for 100 yards. The first-round pick out of Arizona is currently eighth in the NFL in receiving yards and leads all rookie wideouts.
Panthers sideline boss Dave Canales, like many of his peers, is trying to save his job. Carolina may be one of those “fun” bad teams that keeps games tantalizing, but their playoff hopes can be put six feet under.
Malik Nabers is already one of the most electrifying players in the NFL, and the show he put on yesterday solidified that statement.
In what may go down as the game of the year, Nabers finished with 167 yards on nine receptions, in addition to two touchdowns. It wasn’t enough to avoid an 0-2 start for the New York Giants, however.
Speaking of second-year players, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has had a laborious start to his pairing with rookie head coach Ben Johnson. Williams is second to last in completion percentage over expected and 22nd in EPA/dropback.
There’ll be more tough sledding ahead for the Bears, and they even end up being worse than last year. Growing pains are expected for any first-year head coach, of course, but it’s time to start wondering if Williams is yet another failed experiment at quarterback for Chicago. The Bears remain the only NFL team to never have a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns.
Two years ago, Super Bowl XLVII MVP Joe Flacco won Comeback Player of the Year with the Cleveland Browns. He was re-signed to offer tutelage and veteran savvy to Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.
Flacco’s second stint in the “Dawg Pound” may end up being truncated. In a blowout loss against the Ravens yesterday, Flacco was benched in favor of Gabriel, who completed all three of his pass attempts and threw his first career touchdown pass in garbage time.
There will be a quarterback controversy in Cleveland for the rest of the season, but it seems that Shedeur Sanders will eventually be given a shot.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski and his squad have regressed mightily, and he’ll be given the pink slip soon. Yet again, the Browns are back to square one. They’ve had 40 different starting quarterbacks since 1999. Not exactly a winning formula in the NFL.
Digging an early hole and having to play catch-up is never sustainable for any team in any sport, especially in the NFL, where every game matters. History has proven that teams that begin 0-2 are virtually guaranteed to miss the playoffs and go back to the drawing board.
The Chiefs aren’t dead yet; not until they prove otherwise. Until they are truly buried, it’s naive to bet against them in the long run. Every other 0-2 team, however, can say goodbye to Super Bowl aspirations.
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