As the 2025 NBA draft approaches, it is almost set in stone that Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper will be selected as the first and second picks in the draft. While Rutgers star Ace Bailey was viewed as the probable third overall pick throughout the year, Bailey’s draft stock has been volatile amongst draft boards as the cycle has progressed.
Bailey made his name for himself as an elite difficult shot-maker with his 6 ‘8 height 7’ 0 wingspan. His elevation and high release point allow him to comfortably attempt jump shots over contests from smaller defenders, and his positional size presents many of these opportunities.
Bailey’s handle, shiftiness, and space creation are less than ideal for the way he hunts out shot attempts. His handle could use some tightening as he’s not a great east-to-west mover with the basketball and he often lacks control when attacking high-level defenders. He typically relies heavily on his jumper which can certainly be effective, but also results in low-percentage looks.
Ace has good overall athleticism, allowing him to rise over defenders for finishes at the rim. He has the ability to be a formidable downhill scorer, an element of his game that wasn’t as consistent as one would like at the college level. While he typically operated with the ball in his hands, Bailey has the potential to be an excellent off-ball scorer with his catch-and-shoot ability and as a cutter with his athleticism. For Bailey to be trusted with handling the basketball in the NBA, his willingness as a passer and decision-maker has to improve.
While he still has room for improvement, his frame gives him excellent defensive versatility. Bailey has potential as a weak-side help defender with his length and ability to cover ground quickly, as well as on-ball using his length to disrupt ball handlers.
Despite his undeniable raw talent, scouts could have questions about how Bailey’s playstyle and mentality could translate to the next level. His lack of space creation in comparison to the amount of contested jump shots he takes is an immediate red flag. Pairing his shot diet with his limited ability as a playmaker will make for a difficult transition as an on-ball creator in the NBA.
Bailey was viewed as a potential top-three pick as he was projected to be a high-level shot-creator in the NBA, but teams could shift their mindset on the 18-year-old wing. Major improvements would have to be made to Bailey’s approach to the game and the Philadelphia 76ers may not be willing to wait for his development, despite picking at third overall.
Arguably the most interesting part of Ace Bailey’s transition to the NBA is his potential as a hybrid role player. His difficult shot-making ability mixed with his defensive versatility could land him in a Jaden McDaniels/Michael Porter Jr. territory, rather than genuine stardom. Ultimately, this path may be ideal for Bailey in his path to being an impactful NBA player, as he has all the tools to do so.
As for his draft stock, it’s still very possible that Ace Bailey lands in Philadelphia, however multiple sources suggest that the 76ers could consider other options at third overall. With how the draft lottery unfolded, it’s plausible that Ace could fall all the way down to eighth overall to Brooklyn.
Bailey is one of the biggest question marks going into the 2025 NBA Draft, as his talented skillset may not translate as some expected. Despite having some of the makings to be a top offensive option, that role could expose some glaring flaws in his game. Perfecting his ability as a movement shooter, improving his decision-making, and utilizing his defensive tools will be vital to Bailey’s success on his new team, no matter where he plays.
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