The first fighting nerds loss in the UFC comes to Carlos Prates by way of Unanimous Decision to 7th ranked Ian Machado Garry.
Carlos Prates faced a serious test against Machado Garry and for much of the fight, he was clearly outclassed.
Through the first three rounds, Prates was consistently outstruck, struggling to keep pace with Garry’s volume and accuracy. Over the course of the bout, Machado Garry landed 126 significant strikes compared to Prates’ 63, with Prates failing to land more than 12 significant strikes in any round until the fifth.
While Prates showcased solid takedown defense, an area that had been one of his strengths, he was taken down for the first time in his UFC career. Machado Garry completed four takedowns, marking the most he’s ever landed in a single fight. Still, Prates impressed with his ability to defend numerous attempts and quickly work his way back to his feet.
The biggest moment for Prates came in the final minute of the fifth round. After a slow start, he stunned Machado Garry with his power, forcing Garry into a desperate retreat, even seeing him crawling on the canvas. However, Prates made a critical mistake: rather than swarming for the finish with ground-and-pound, he allowed Garry to stand back up. Whether due to poor cardio, fatigue, or a lapse in fight IQ, this hesitation cost him a last-minute comeback victory. Garry recovered, survived the round, and earned the decision win.
Absolutely not.
Despite the chatter from some fans calling this a “fraud-check” for Prates, it’s an unfair assessment. Machado Garry is an elite and dangerous opponent. This was a huge step up in competition for Prates, and it showed. The Brazilian still demonstrated flashes of his potential, even in defeat.
He showed elite takedown defense against a proven grappler and an ability to quickly get back to his feet when taken down. He also demonstrated his explosive power, especially in the later rounds, when he nearly finished Garry. Not to mention his chin being tested for the first time in the UFC and he absorbed a high volume of Garry’s combinations without folding.
This was less about Prates being exposed and more about a talented fighter running into a level jump before he was quite ready. Losses like these are often learning experiences rather than career derailers.
Despite the loss, Prates likely won’t fall far from his current #13 ranking. This was a major opportunity against a proven opponent, and the UFC typically doesn’t penalize fighters too harshly for taking ambitious fights.
Looking ahead, the UFC has options. Originally, Prates was scheduled to face #10-ranked Geoff Neal; a tough, veteran boxer who has served as a gatekeeper to the welterweight elite. That fight still makes a lot of sense.
Both Prates and Neal are heavy-handed boxers with aggressive styles, which would almost guarantee fireworks. From a business standpoint, this matchup would benefit the UFC, the fans, and Prates himself. Neal isn’t necessarily in a position to turn down fights right now either, making this booking very realistic.
Don’t be surprised if Prates vs. Neal gets rebooked soon and when it does, expect a much sharper, more prepared version of Carlos Prates to show up.
I personally am still very high on Prates and the rest of the fighting nerds. I believe this fight is more a testament to Machado Garry’s ability and fight IQ than an indictment on Prates’ skill. Prates will get better from this fight, it was just too big a step up for him in my opinion.
Many Fans questioned his late cardio due to his cigarette smoking but that seemed to not be an issue, having his best performances in the fourth and fifth rounds. Whether that was due to low activity early or not is unknown. But it is a good sign that he performed late nonetheless.
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