The MLB season has passed the halfway mark, and the trade deadline looms after the upcoming All-Star break. As that July 31 deadline approaches, front offices are evaluating what they need to get their teams to the next level. Some will sell at the deadline to build for the future, while others will take big swings to try to make a push for a deep playoff run. Here’s a look at what the teams in the NL Central will be doing at the trade deadline.
Despite an up-and-down bullpen, injuries to starters, and inconsistency at third base, the Cubs are leading the NL Central. With third baseman Eugenio Suárez possibly available on an expiring contract, the Cubs have to consider sending Matt Shaw back to the minors to get more experience. Suárez has 26 homers and 69 RBI, and he has been a Cub-killer his whole career. Shaw is probably still the Cubs’ starting third baseman next season.
Even with Shaw’s ups and downs, Chicago’s offense is raking. The real focus should be on finding another starting pitcher. Justin Steele is out for the season, and Javier Assad is unlikely to pitch before August or even September. Names like Sandy Alcántara, Edward Cabrera, Zach Gallen, Seth Lugo, Merrill Kelly, Mitch Keller, and Luis Severino have all been mentioned. As much as the Cubs would love to pick up a potential ace like Alcántara or Gallen, they have to make sure that they have money left to extend Kyle Tucker. Keeping Tucker is a must. If Tom Ricketts doesn’t pony up for him before free agency, the other decisions matter much less.
The Reds are 45-42 and, if they can get healthy, they have a shot at a wild card spot. Third base has been an issue for most of the year, but Noelvi Marte is rehabbing in the minors, and he could be back to shore up that position soon. Cincy gave up on Jeimer Candelario earlier in the year and now seems to be rapidly losing faith in Christian Encarnacion-Strand. He may well be on the move in the coming weeks. The Reds could look at the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon if they don’t think that Marte is the answer at third.
If the Reds are going to make a run at the playoffs, they could use another starting pitcher. With Cincinnati’s payroll, don’t look for them to go big. Someone like Lugo, Cabrera, or Severino might be a possibility, though. Don’t be surprised if the Reds are willing to give up Will Benson or Santiago Espinal as part of any deal that they make.
With Brandon Woodruff back after two years and Nestor Cortes due back right after the All-Star break, the Brewers’ rotation will be overflowing. There is talk that the Brew Crew could part with veteran righty Freddy Peralta. That would be ill-advised, but Milwaukee has made ill-advised pitching trades at the deadline before. (Josh Hader rings a bell.) A better plan might be to move Jose Quintana and/or Cortes to the bullpen and have them make spot starts down the stretch if need be. Robert Gasser (elbow) is also due back around September, and he looks to already be slotted for bullpen duty.
The Brewers should focus on getting someone who can produce on the left side of the infield. Third baseman Caleb Durbin and shortstop Joseph Ortiz have combined to hit .227 with nine home runs. Milwaukee is a team centered on pitching, speed, and defense, but they could really use another run producer. Suárez, McMahon, or even Yoan Moncada would be an upgrade.
As the team is unable to trade its cheapskate owner (Bob Nutting) at the deadline, Pirates fans will have to settle for the team selling off many of their veteran players. Expect Andrew Heaney, Mitch Keller, David Bednar, Dennis Santana, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier, and even Bryan Reynolds to be available. Oneil Cruz and Paul Skenes are probably the only untouchables. Pittsburgh is the only team that has no shot at winning the NL Central or making the playoffs. Unless ownership changes, or changes its attitude, expect that statement to be repeated year after year.
The Pirates need help at catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, and left field, and if they trade Reynolds, right field as well. Oneil Cruz has not transitioned well from shortstop to center field, so a center fielder might not be a bad idea either. A year or two from now, when Andrew McCutchen retires, Cruz will most likely be the team’s designated hitter, despite being a candidate to strike out 200 times every season. Outside of pitching, Pittsburgh has whiffed on most of their recent draft picks, so any positional prospect they pick up in trades has a chance to make the team next year.
The big question in St. Louis as the trade deadline approaches is the same one that permeated the off-season. When and where will third baseman Nolan Arenado be traded? The ten-time Gold Glove winner hit his 350th home run earlier this season, but his production has fallen off considerably over the past two seasons. It remains to be seen if Nolan Gorman or Thomas Saggese can produce consistently at the position, but the Cardinals need to get younger and cheaper there.
The Cardinals’ biggest weakness is their starting rotation. St. Louis has lost faith in Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas. The team currently sits a percentage point outside of the last NL wild card slot at 47-41 and only five games back of the first-place Cubs. If the Cards can upgrade their rotation at the deadline and sign another starter during the off-season, they should be right back in contention for the division for the foreseeable future.
The NL Central could be very competitive the next few years (minus the Pirates). The Cubs are the only large-market team in the division, but the Ricketts family has been stingy at times with making big moves. Chicago could take control of the division if the team could lock down Kyle Tucker and make a small upgrade to their rotation. Hopefully, the Ricketts family recognizes that and seizes the moment. St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati all have a lot of young talent, but they have scaled back their payrolls. They will be fighting for wild card spots until that changes.
I don’t see any big trades coming out of the Central. Several Central teams may make a play for Sandy Alcántara, but he does not appear, right now, to be the player he was before UCL surgery. Even so, there is a good chance that higher payroll teams like the Mets, Braves, or Rangers swoop in and grab Alcántara and any of the other bigger-name starters that might move. The Central teams are more likely to get Mitch Keller, Luis Severino, or Edward Cabrera.
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