For the last five years, the Toronto Blue Jays’ first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has operated as the powerhouse and heart of the lineup. The 27-year-old has consistently hit over 20 home runs a season, with some seasons eclipsing the 30-home-run mark and, in his 2021 runner-up MVP season, reaching 48. There’s a reason the team inked him to a 14-year, $500 million deal in the 2025 offseason.
However, in the 2026 season, Guerrero Jr. has seen one of the biggest drop-offs in production behind Seattle Mariners’ catcher Cal Raleigh. Gone is his ability to hit home runs, and gone is his ability to generate walks. Strangely enough, he isn’t striking out at a higher rate, and he’s still hitting doubles at a healthy clip.
Is it an injury that’s causing him not to hit home runs? Is there a lack of confidence or a shift in attitude? If it’s neither, what exactly is causing his slump?
When a player starts having issues with power and contact, that usually means their swing is either completely different from years past, or they are dealing with injuries. As far as the public knows, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has only missed a handful of games due to a head injury.
He has no history of shoulder or arm injuries, though he has two back injuries from the summer that he played through. An MRI in August of this year showed inflammation that has apparently been nagging him throughout the season. The young All-Star said he could play through it and that he felt fine.
The sabermetrics of Guerrero’s bat tell two different stories: First, some of his metrics have taken a serious nosedive. His barrel percentage, sweet spot percentage, and chase rate have all crashed from the 90th percentile to average or well below. His exit velocity has also diminished by 1.5 miles per hour in a single season. That could signal back inflammation slowing his swing or a shift in his entire approach at the plate.
Baseball Savant’s bat tracker metric, however, shows that Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s swing seems not to have undergone any major changes between 2025 and 2026. His bat speed remains virtually the same, give or take a few tenths of a mile per hour, and his stance and depth of position haven’t changed either. Even the rates of “perfect” contact and whiff have remained the same.
The only notable shift in his hitting metrics is that he’s more centered with offspeed pitches than in years past. Otherwise, he’s still hitting the ball the same. There really is a lack of rhyme and reason, on the surface level, as to why he’s having this sudden decline in power.
While data-diggers might look at the numbers and be more mystified by the decline, some of the best hitters of the game in recent memory have pointed out more glaring issues.
In June, former St. Louis Cardinals legend and Cooperstown-bound slugger Albert Pujols broke down Guerrero Jr.’s habit of “wrapping his bat.” That means the first baseman is putting his hands too far back in the starting position, lacking separation in his timing, and making his swing much longer than it has been.
“When I see that tip of the bat, that means that I’m taking my hands too far back. So that was a trigger for me, you know? So I think for him, he just needs to have that little separation. He has his bat here, then he comes here, and the leg kick,” Pujols explained.
It’s not just Pujols who’s noticed a hitch in Guerrero Jr.’s swing, however. Former Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto also tweeted out his thoughts earlier this year, pointing to a forward movement that might be hindering him as well.
“Vladdy’s just not “back-legging” or “back-hipping”balls. His forward move is delaying his barrel from snapping in place. He sees the ball, knows it’s drivable, but his move causes the bat to lag. Keeps him from getting the barrel to the [target],” Votto wrote.
The naked eye and the numbers seem to differ on what exactly is wrong. Yes, Guerrero Jr.’s swing might seem off, and it’s substantiated by the high chase rate and slowly increasing whiff rate on certain pitches. His barrel and sweet spot abilities have suddenly collapsed, though we’re not seeing any changes to the actual metrics of his swing when the bat hits the ball.
One thing that would make no sense to pin the blame on with regard to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s struggles is laziness. Fans have pointed out his lack of hustle and base-running mistakes at times this season. While the criticism is totally earned and easy outs on the bases should never happen, it doesn’t mean it’s the reason why he’s slumping at the plate.
Nothing suggests Guerrero’s attitude has shifted to a more devil-may-care personality and that he’s just floating around the team now that he got paid. Of course, that’s on the surface level. Things could be completely different in the clubhouse, where fans can’t see. Still, Guerrero Jr. has acknowledged that he needs to play better, especially next season.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the best young players in the American League East and in the MLB. It’s a shame that he’s had this severe season-long slump that’s been affecting not only him, but the team’s offensive production and playoff chances. Toronto must fix him during the offseason, depending on the Collective Bargaining Agreement discussions and the lockout.
Once that’s over, the team’s first priority is fixing their best hitter and making sure he doesn’t have a prolonged slump like this again.
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