US Open 2026 Predictions draw is set, and it arrives with a genuine shakeup at the top. Defending men’s champion Jannik Sinner has withdrawn with a knee injury, opening the door for a wide-open men’s field. The women’s draw, meanwhile, remains led by a familiar dominant favorite. Below is a detailed look at the 10 players most likely to lift the trophies when the tournament concludes in mid-September.
Sinner’s decision to withdraw from the men’s draw with a knee injury is the single biggest storyline shaping this year’s tournament. He arrived in New York last year as the reigning champion and remains one of the sport’s most dominant hard-court players. He won this year’s Wimbledon title over Alexander Zverev. Sinner’s absence removes the man many considered the tournament’s true favorite and immediately reshuffles the odds board. Carlos Alcaraz and Zverev are now the two clearest paths to the title.
Zverev enters as the tournament’s top seed and its most in-form player over the past year, sitting at an outstanding 18-2 record at the major level in 2026. He won his maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros this year. He followed the victory up by reaching the Wimbledon final, where he lost to Sinner in four sets. His projected path through the draw looks genuinely favorable: Lorenzo Sonego to open.
Quentin Halys, Alejandro Tabilo, Lorenzo Musetti, and sixth seed Alex de Minaur would likely follow before a probable semifinal against third seed Felix Auger-Aliassime. None of those names should trouble a fully fit Zverev in a best-of-five format, and betting markets have him priced around +350, second only to Alcaraz. Tennis analysts have specifically pointed to Zverev as this year’s pick to win, citing both his form and the kindness of his draw.
Alcaraz, the defending champion, returns to New York with real question marks hanging over his form. He has not played a single competitive singles match since the Barcelona Open in mid-April, a layoff of more than four months heading into a Grand Slam. His draw offers no favors either: he opens against Roman Safiullin, a player who has beaten him before.
The dangerous, big-serving Alexander Bublik potentially awaits Alcaraz in the fourth round. A red-hot Ben Shelton, fresh off defending his Montreal title, is projected as his quarterfinal opponent. Despite all of this, Alcaraz remains the bookmakers’ nominal favorite at +195. This reflects how much raw talent he brings to the court even after an extended absence. Whether that talent can overcome match rust against a gauntlet of dangerous floor-raisers is the tournament’s biggest open question.
Novak Djokovic excels at an age when most of his rivals from a decade ago have long since retired. He continues his remarkable late-career run, competing in his fourth consecutive Grand Slam of 2026. The draw has placed him in the same half as Alcaraz, setting up a potential blockbuster semifinal between two of the sport’s most recognizable names.
A Djokovic/Alcaraz matchup would headline any broadcast schedule. Djokovic is priced at +700 to win the title outright, still shorter odds than several players a decade younger. The odds testify to how seriously bettors continue to take his chances at majors.
Ben Shelton arrives in New York full of confidence after successfully defending his Montreal title just weeks ago. He has arguably the hottest form of any player left in the field not named Zverev. Shelton is projected as Alcaraz’s quarterfinal opponent.
A Shelton/Alcaraz matchup could end up being one of the most-watched of the entire tournament given the partisan New York crowd’s affection for American players. At +800, Shelton represents one of the field’s most dangerous floor-raisers. He is capable of beating anyone on a given night thanks to his huge left-handed serve and improving all-around game.
Rafael Jódar faces arguably the most difficult path of any seeded player in the draw. Names like Jakub Mensik, Jiri Lehecka, Tommy Paul, or Andrey Rublev could await as early as the third round. Flavio Cobolli, Alex de Minaur, Daniil Medvedev, or Shelton, meanwhile, loom as potential fourth-round opponents.
Manageable names like Valentin Vacherot, Luciano Darderi, and Casper Ruud, who is far from his best, offer some relief elsewhere in Jódar’s section. At +1200, he represents a live outsider bet if the draw breaks kindly in the early rounds. The sheer density of dangerous names in his quarter makes a deep run genuinely difficult to project.
Aryna Sabalenka remains the clear favorite as the two-time defending champion, and her odds have ticked upward since the draw was revealed. They have moved from 23% to 24% on Kalshi’s betting markets. Sabalenka landed in a section that could eventually produce a meeting with Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova.
Sabalenka’s recent dominance at this specific tournament, including back-to-back titles, makes her the player every other contender must find a way to beat. Her combination of first-strike power and improved movement has made her nearly unplayable on North American hard courts over the past two seasons.
Coco Gauff has been the single biggest mover in the betting markets since Thursday’s draw, jumping from 11% to 16% and passing Iga Swiatek into outright second place. Her draw includes a testing early section against Emma Navarro and Barbora Krejčíková.
Gauff’s projected path also sets up a semifinal against Jessica Pegula, a matchup she would enter with confidence given her strong recent form on American soil. As a two-time major champion already, Gauff has the experience and home-crowd support to make a genuine run at a first US Open title.
Iga Swiatek sits third in the betting markets at 15%, having slipped slightly from 17% since the draw was revealed. Her most notable projected matchup comes in the quarterfinals against Elena Rybakina. It would be a rematch of several tight encounters between the two over the past two seasons. Swiatek’s clay-court pedigree is well established, but her hard-court game has continued to improve. A deep run in New York would go a long way toward proving she can win majors on every surface.
Elena Rybakina’s tournament odds crashed after an Achilles injury forced her retirement mid-match in Cincinnati just weeks before the US Open. The odds have since rebounded from 3% to 6% as her participation has started to look more likely. Her huge serve and flat, powerful groundstrokes make her a threat to anyone in the draw if she’s physically able to compete deep into the second week. The injury, though, adds real uncertainty to her chances of lasting that long.
Jessica Pegula rounds out the group of realistic women’s contenders, with odds that have improved slightly from 6% to 7% since the draw. Her own projected path runs through Emiliana Arango-Osorio.
Likely, Pegula would face Barbora Krejčíková in the third round and Diana Shnaider or Maja Chwalinska in the fourth round. Linda Noskova in the quarterfinals, and a potential semifinal against Gauff would await following. As a home favorite with a habit of deep major runs, Pegula’s consistency makes her a threat to reach the final four regardless of how the bracket unfolds around her.
The singles champion in both draws will earn $5.5 million and 2,000 ranking points, part of an $18.92 million total purse for the men’s and women’s singles events combined. A runner-up finish is worth $2.8 million, a semifinal exit $1.45 million. Even a first-round loss now pays $140,000, reflecting the tournament’s continued push to boost payouts across every round of the singles draws.
Roger Federer remains the last man to win back-to-back US Open titles in the Open Era’s modern stretch. He won five consecutive championships from 2004 to 2008. The repeat champion drought adds extra intrigue to Sinner’s absence this year. His withdrawal removes the one man with a realistic shot at extending a title defense in New York.
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The main draw begins Sunday, August 30 and runs through the finals in mid-September. For live scores and bracket updates as the tournament unfolds, this page will be updated with actual results as they happen.
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