Many fantasy football leagues are starting to draft at the end of this week, putting copious amounts of pressure on owners who aren’t sure what players they want to target in 2025. As owners begin their preparation, many only create lists of players they want to secure, but often fail to consider which players they want to avoid.
No one wants a repeat of the 2024 Christian McCaffrey, 2018 Le’Veon Bell, or 2014 Adrian Peterson, who are among the biggest fantasy busts in history. These may be extreme examples, but drafting the wrong starter can destroy an owner’s chance at a championship.
Here are two running backs that should be avoided by any fantasy owner who wants to have a winning season in 2025.
After a breakout rookie season in 2024, many fantasy owners will be confused to see Tryone Tracy Jr. as one of these two running backs to avoid. Accumulating 1,123 all-purpose yards with a total of six touchdowns, he scored 182.3 fantasy points in 2024, ranking him the 26th-best running back with only 12 starts.
These stats look great on the surface, giving fantasy owners the impression that Tracy Jr. will continue this trend and make another leap in year two. This might be true if he were in another organization, but with the Giants’ current setup, he will not live up to expectations in 2025.
The biggest concern for Tracy Jr. is the number of different options the Giants can use at running back. For now, he is the clear-cut starter, with him passing Devin Singletary for the starting position in 2024, and the next best option being rookie Cameron Skattebo. While he might be the starter, the organization is going to utilize each running back multiple times each game, cutting into his playing time.
Having already fought and won the starting position against Singletary in 2024, fantasy owners know how these two will be utilized together again this season. Adding Skattebo to the mix, a downhill runner who poses a threat in the passing game, will shake up this backfield.
To start the season, the Giants will primarily use Tracy Jr. for most snaps, while Singletary will handle third-down situations, and Skattebo will be utilized in short-yardage and goal-line scenarios. This won’t last for long once Skattebo rushes for multiple big gains and shows how productive he can be in the NFL.
By mid-season, the Giants will utilize Tracy Jr. and Skattebo with almost equal snap counts. This will leverage each running back’s unique skills to enhance the offense, but will negatively impact Tracy Jr.’s fantasy production.
Projected to rush for a little over 800 yards and score five rushing touchdowns in 2025, Tracy Jr. will need to dominate at the beginning of the season to even come close to reaching that mark.
Competing with Skattebo and Singletary in the depth chart, he will end the season with a little over 600 rushing yards with only three rushing touchdowns. In the receiving game, he will be close to his projected 260 receiving yards, but these combined won’t be enough value to be a starter for fantasy owners in 2025.
After an incredible bounce-back season, it might come as a surprise to fantasy owners to see Jonathan Taylor on this list of running backs to avoid. Rushing for 1,431 yards and scoring 244.7 fantasy points in 2024, Taylor was finally healthy for the majority of the season and was once again a dominant option for fantasy owners.
Going off recency bias, owners might assume Taylor will be a top fantasy option again in 2025. This could hold true if he remains healthy. With the Colts having a run-first offensive scheme—especially after naming Daniel Jones the starter, who has known turnover issues—Taylor will most likely see the most rushing attempts per game in his career.
The gap between Jones and Anthony Richardson is minimal, as both quarterbacks will lead the Colts to emphasize running the ball. Examining Taylor’s 2024 statistics, when Richardson started, he had an average of 21 carries per game with 102.2 rushing yards per game. He was a dominant option for fantasy owners looking like his 2021 First-Team All-Pro self, and if replicated, could be once again in 2025.
This heavy workload may seem like championship-winning value in fantasy football, but it’s important to realize that with this level of usage, Taylor is likely to be injured again.
Dig a little deeper into the statistics, and see that Taylor only played in 14 of 17 games in 2024 due to a high ankle sprain, the same ankle he injured back in 2022 and 2020. Not only did he miss three games in 2024, but he also missed three games in 2023 due to a torn right thumb ligament and five games in 2022 due to the same nagging ankle sprain.
Having a history of being injury-prone, particularly with his ankle since his rookie season, is a significant risk that fantasy owners should consider in 2025. This high workload may be beneficial for the first five to ten weeks, but once he goes down and fantasy owners lose their second-round pick, it will eliminate any chance of winning a championship.
Being drafted as the 11th-best running back and selected late in the second round or early in the third round is too much of a risk on a player who has had only one healthy season out of his five-year career. For owners who enjoy taking risks, Taylor may be the ideal choice, as he offers both significant potential and considerable risk. For fantasy owners wanting the best chance at a championship, it’s wise to avoid him.
If you still want to draft Taylor this season, the smartest approach is to select his backup, DJ Giddens, in one of the last few rounds of the draft. Giddens doesn’t offer the value of a second-rounder or a healthy Taylor brings, but when Taylor goes down, you still have a starting running back in a run-heavy offense.
A smart fantasy owner this season will go after players like Bucky Irving or Brock Bowers in the second round, who are young, explosive, and have no current history of injuries.
For Tracy Jr., the best option is to just avoid him at all costs. Being selected on average in the seventh round, there are multiple running back options not in a crowded backfield to select before he even becomes a thought. If, for some reason, you love the Giants and want to draft him, go after Skattebo in the tenth round as insurance if Tracy Jr. goes down with an injury or vice versa.
To ensure the best chance at a winning season and a fantasy championship, owners need to look past the hype surrounding Taylor and the dynamic rookie season of Tracy Jr.
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