Trevor Story has been a bit of an enigma for the Boston Red Sox since signing with the team in 2022. He has been hurt in every season since, and when he has been on the field, he has been relatively ineffective. Given the contract he signed with Boston, fans have been getting impatient with Story and clamouring for Marcelo Mayer to come up and take over.
With the pressure on and a make-or-break season in 2025, Trevor Story needed to step it up this year and prove that he can still be the player he once was in Colorado. While it is still only a month into the season, and the sample is small, he has been doing everything he can so far to prove it.
Currently batting .318 with five home runs and six stolen bases, Story has been one of the few bright spots in the Red Sox lineup, even having a huge two-home-run day against the Chicago White Sox recently.
It is early in the season, however, and one of Story’s biggest question marks is his health. Can he stay healthy for the entire season and keep up the pace he is currently on?
The first question cannot be answered right now, as there is no way to predict the future. The second, however, is possible to analyze. Looking at the metrics, is his offensive output sustainable, or is it artificially buoyed?
Story has gotten off to a fast start in 2025. Besides his batting average, home runs, and stolen bases, his overall numbers have been impressive.
His current wRC+ (runs per plate appearance scaled) of 145, 45 points above average, would be the best mark of his career. His OPS is .866 currently, and he also has a wOBA (weighted on base average) of .377 (average is around .320). All of these numbers point to a productive offensive season thus far.
Are these numbers sustainable? They certainly are capable of being sustained. None of Story’s stats thus far are so wildly high that no player could maintain them throughout the season. The question becomes, then, how exactly did Story reach them, and has he shown a real change that indicates these numbers are a true reflection of his talent level for 2025?
One way to look at how Story has arrived here is through his BABIP (batting average on balls in play). His current line there is .400, which is incredibly high and could drop as much as .100 points or more to land closer to league average.
This does not tell a positive tale for Story, as a drop in BABIP that significant would assuredly have an impact on his batting average and, thus, his on base percentage and anything that derives from those two base statistics.
Another number to be a bit concerned about for Story is his BB/K ratio. He is currently striking out 28.1% of the time. That alone would not be overly concerning, given that his career average was already 28.2%. Although, it is very high, he has made it work in his career overall.
The bigger problem has been his walk rate, as he is only walking at a 3.4% clip, by far the lowest of his career, where he averages 8.2%. This leaves his OBP lower than expected, a major issue if his BABIP drops back to normal.
His stolen base numbers appear sustainable, although his overall baserunning stats have not been quite as friendly as one would expect. Overall, though, he should be able to put up strong stolen base numbers throughout the season. The biggest question then becomes, if his BABIP is high, how is it happening? Is it pure luck, or is the quality of contact setting him up for success regardless?
There are several metrics to use to look at the quality of at-bats that a player is putting together. Exit velocity and barrel percentage are two good indicators, and the percentage of swings in and out of the zone, as well as pitch selection, tell a solid tale as well. Where does Story sit with these numbers?
Using Statcast, Story currently has an average exit velocity of 90.4, just slightly above his career average of 90.2. What differs from his career norms, though, are his barrel rate and hard hit rate. His 15% barrel rate would be a career high, as would his 53.3% hard hit rate.
These numbers are very positive. When he makes contact, he is making good contact, an indicator that some of his numbers, especially his power numbers, are legitimate.
Looking at how and where Story is hitting the ball is an interesting analysis as well. His ground ball rate is higher than his career norms, and his fly ball percentage is lower, echoing a pattern for the Red Sox as a whole.
That said, he has moved away from pulling the ball in comparison to his career norms (39.3% career versus 33.3% currently), and instead is hitting the ball up the middle more, with his opposite field hits staying career average. Is this a planned effort, or simply small sample noise?
Analyzing how Story fares against specific pitches is a key component. Is his struggling or overperforming in any given category? The answer is, yes, but with the small sample caveat. That caveat is why the statistics used are percentage rates as often as possible, instead of raw number rates.
Using Statcast data and runs above average per 100 pitches, Story is performing above his career norms against most pitches, most dramatically the splitter and the slider, both of which he is seeing more frequently this year than usual.
Conversely, he is performing under career norms against the fastball and the sinker, both of which he is seeing less than normal. Is this simply a matter of seeing pitches more often and thus getting a good look at them? A concerted effort by opposing teams? Probably not, so likely, these numbers will be regulated soon.
Again, like most of the Red Sox team, Story has a swinging problem. He is swinging at pitches outside of the zone at a far higher rate than normal, and even swinging more at pitches inside the zone. This adds up to swinging 10% more often than his career, which likely explains the low walk rates.
Thankfully, his contact rates so far are stable for his career, roughly, but given Story’s strikeout rates for his career, swinging more often seems concerning and untenable.
Some of these batting metrics tell a good sign for Story moving forward, and others do not. Truth be told, Statcast indicates in the aggregate that Story will not maintain this pace for the duration of the season, even if healthy. That said, it also points to him remaining strong offensively overall and producing enough to be a valuable offensive tool in 2025.
The long and short of all the metrics brought to the table above is that Story is not building a completely sustainable offense product, but enough of one to be successful. His hard hit rates and where he is hitting the ball point to a batter that has a solid swing mechanic worked out right now and is seeing the ball well.
The increase in ground balls, the BB/K ratio, the BABIP, and the swing percentage all indicate a regression of offense back to the mean.
Ultimately, that is not a bad thing. Story having a career year would be great, but unlikely in his age-32 season. Simply performing at the levels he did in Colorado would be a welcome addition for the Red Sox and provide a much-needed boost to the lineup.
While he may not be on track to stay at the numbers he is at now, he should be able to keep up with his Colorado averages, and that alone is a big break for the 2025 Boston Red Sox, and a welcome sight for fans who have been waiting to see him finally break out.
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