Following convincing victories in their respective conferences, the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are slated to match up in the 2025 NBA Finals. This series projects to be an interesting matchup with both teams having very different yet electric play styles. This clash in philosophy between these teams raises many questions about the matchup and its intricacies, but one question stands out: Who will raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy when the NBA Finals conclude?
Arguably, the most popular question regarding this series has been about the matchup between the Thunder’s historic defensive unit and the Pacers’ modern high-powered transition offense.
OKC’s historic defensive unit led the league in defensive rating (107.5), opponent turnovers per game (17.0), opponent field goal percentage (43.1%), deflections per game (18.9), and a long list of more categories.
This roster construction features a full rotation of lengthy switchable defensive playmakers that force loose balls and turnovers at a high rate. Head Coach Mark Daigneault’s group has emphasized high ball pressure on opposing ball handlers with heavy weakside help. This style has forced opponents to rely on role players to knock down catch-and-shoot shots and has prevented paint points at a league-leading rate.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Pacers have nearly perfected the fastest offense in basketball. Team pace is simply much more than running in transition and converting off of turnovers. The Pacers run after every made/missed basket, which was highlighted in their Game 6 win over the New York Knicks.
This up-and-down offensive system allows the Pacers to answer made baskets by the opponent, tire out opposing defenses, and close quarters well with two-for-one opportunities and late-clock shot attempts. This offense features multiple different scoring options on a game-by-game basis and has proven to be overwhelming in every series they’ve played.
While regular season matchups aren’t absolute determinants of postseason basketball, it’s essential to consider the sample size. The Pacers and Thunder played twice in the regular season, both resulting in Thunder wins (114-120, 111- 132). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 39 points per game on 70.8% true shooting in the two games. OKC also got solid contributions from their supporting cast in addition to the excellence of the MVP. Surprisingly, Indiana only turned the ball over 11 times in each of these games despite OKC’s suffocating defense. Tyrese Haliburton was underwhelming, however, averaging only 11 points and 5.5 assists on 58% true shooting.
The NBA Playoffs have proven to be more matchup-dependent than ever in recent years. It’s extremely difficult to overlook Indiana given their recent postseason success against teams that many people deemed to be better, and their astounding late-game resilience. No matter the result of the series, it’s very possible that many, if not every game, could be competitive until the final whistle. Unfortunately for Indiana and its fans, the Thunder project to have multiple advantages in the series.
While good offense typically trumps good defense, this Thunder defense is more than good. Opposing guards have struggled massively against this unit throughout the regular season and playoffs, notably Ja Morant, Jamal Murray, and Anthony Edwards. It’s hard to imagine that Haliburton will put up a consistent scoring series against this high-powered defense. Indiana will be heavily reliant on outside shot-making from their role players, with OKC’s paint-patrolling help-side defensive scheme limiting inside and one-on-one scoring.
This isn’t the end of the world for Indiana, as one of their hallmarks is the trust Haliburton has in their supporting cast, but it will have to be the staple of their offense. Pascal Siakam will also be forced to adjust as OKC will likely load up to take away his high-post isolations. Finally, the Thunder will take away some fast break opportunities from Indiana as their transition defense has been elite all postseason, using their quick hands and high basketball IQ to disrupt outlet passes and breakaways.
Defensively, Indiana has their best shot to make their mark against the Thunder. Apart from their defense, the Thunder have looked mortal on the offensive end, specifically in the Nuggets series. As expected, they have been highly dependent on SGA in isolation situations. This has carried a load of their offense throughout the entirety of the season and has been no surprise in the postseason.
The notable thing for Denver was their ability to take Gilgeous-Alexander off his game early in the series, seemingly breaking OKC’s offense. Indiana will likely put multiple high-motor defenders in front of Gilgeous-Alexander, and potentially send an extra body if necessary. Forcing Jalen Williams to be the primary ball handler in crucial moments will be the Pacers’ key to stagnating this Thunder offense, and potentially winning the NBA Finals.
While it’d be disingenuous to overlook the Pacers’ ability to compete with the Thunder, this will likely be a 5-6 game series in OKC’s favor. Indiana deserves every bit of respect for this postseason run and player development over recent years, however, this Thunder team is historically good and will prove to be such in the NBA Finals.
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