Tua Tagovailoa’s reign as the Miami Dolphins’ quarterback is likely over. But to get to 2026, we need to revisit the twilight of Miami’s last franchise quarterback.
Saturday. January 12, 2000. Jacksonville, Florida.
Dan Marino’s last game in the National Football League was over before it started. The Jacksonville Jaguars hung 24 points in the first quarter, 17 in the second, and another 21 in the second half. Marino’s final touchdown pass accounted for Miami’s only offensive production in the game–a 20 yard connection between him and Orande Gadsden.
It was over. A 16-year streak of Blitzkrieg levels of air power, gone with a 62-7 whimper to the Dolphins’ cross-state rival. Two months later, Marino announced his retirement, sending Miami into twenty years of quarterback purgatory.
To summarize, Miami’s quarterback history since Marino’s retirement has been…spotty. From Jay Fiedler to Jay Cutler, from Chad Pennington to Chad Henne, Miami’s been through 26 quarterbacks in search of the one that might be the answer.
Then 2020 came around. With three first-round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft, Miami used their first pick to select a left-handed, throwin’ Samoan from Alabama. Tua Tagovailoa. A 6’1 quarterback who was yin to Marino’s yang. Accuracy over arm strength. Decision-making over instinct.
The Dolphins were coming off an abysmal 2019 season where the tagline for many fans became “Tank for Tua.” Their Super Bowl was beating the New England Patriots in a Week 17 matchup that decided the fate of the AFC playoff race. New England lost home-field advantange and…well, we know the story.
Otherwise? With Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick running an anemic offense, Miami needed a spark at the quarterback position. The Fitzmagic was running out. Tua Time was approaching. And despite then-Head Coach Brian Flores’ reluctance, Tua shared starts with Fitzpatrick throughout the 2020 season before earning the starting role in 2021.
But it wasn’t until 2022 that Tua’s play started living up to, and exceeding, the hype. New Head Coach Mike McDaniel brought a regime change that shocked the league and quieted Tua’s biggest doubters. He became known as one of the most accurate passers in the league. 25 touchdowns to eight interceptions, his first 3000+ yard season and a 105.5 quarterback rating. Couple Tua’s pinpoint accuracy with second-year receiver Jaylen Waddle and offseason acquisition Tyreek Hill? A fixed running game with Raheem Mostert and eventually De’Von Achane? Miami’s offense had a brand new, West Coast-hybrid infused bag. Their new Franchise Quarterback held the strings.
However, 2022 wasn’t entirely shock and awe. Prior to the 2020 NFL Draft, scouts were concerned that a major hip injury sustained during his last season at Alabama would impact his throwing motion and long-term availability. The Dolphins started realizing it in 2021. A jammed finger here, fractured ribs there. A trip to the Injured Reserve list, but nothing would compare to what 2022 had in store.
In a Week Three victory against the Buffalo Bills, Tua was knocked over by a pursuing Bills lineman. He got up slowly. Looked wobbly. Had to be helped back to the huddle by a lineman, but stayed in the game. The next day, Dolphins training staff were quick to dismiss it as “back spasms” and insisted they complied with the NFL’s concussion protocol.
Four days later in Cincinnati? Tua lay on the Paycor Stadium grass motionless, fingers fixed in a “fencing” response which usually indicates a moderate-to-severe concussion. This was the “first” concussion of the year, and it wouldn’t be the last. In a late-season fix against the Green Bay Packers, Tua started the game off strong. Then he was sacked in the third quarter. Another head-to-field collision. Tua threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter and looked a shell of himself.
The question was no longer “Can Tua fill the void left by Marino?” But rather, “Can Tua play without risking his own safety?” Fans and media called on him to retire. Coach Mike McDaniel even suggested that possibility, wanting Tua to do “whatever was best for him and his family.” Despite this, Tua remained confident he could and would continue to play.
And in 2023? It looked like he could.
Miami’s torrent offense continued into the next year. The peak of McDaniel’s genius and Tua’s savvy was seen in a 70-20 drubbing of the Denver Broncos. Tua was named AFC Offensive Player of the Month in September. He led the league in passing yards that year, becoming the first Dolphins quarterback since Ryan Tannehill to throw for over 4000+.
But most importantly, Tua stayed healthy the entire 2023 season, which brought it’s own share of questions. How much of Miami’s offense is McDaniels’ scheming? How much of it is Tua making the first, simple read? Defenses began to figure out the Miami powerhouse and by January, during one of the coldest playoff games in recent memory, the Kansas City Chiefs had figured it out. It’s bad enough Miami’s had a bad rap for playing poorly in the cold. But Kansas City created the template to stopping Tua and McDaniels:
Take away Tua’s first read. Send pressure. Miami’s offensive line was already questionable at best, so that last part came easy.
Going into 2024, Tua’s play earned him a four-year, $212.4 million extension. GM Chris Grier was banking on the future, and if Tua’s 2023 season had anything to say, it was that Tua could not only stay healthy, but serve as a franchise quarterback for years to come. And Week One against Jacksonville? Tua looked the part. He led a late fourth quarter drive to set up Jason Sanders for the gamewinning field goal.
That’s where the positives end. The very next game against Buffalo, Tua ran headfirst into the lower shoulderpads of Bills’ safety Damar Hamlin. And didn’t get up.
There’s a spooky factor to this hit: Tua’s fourth concussion in two years came against Hamlin, who’d just returned to football after collapsing mid-game due to cardiac arrest. Also caused by a helmet to the lower shoulderpads.
Four concussions in two years. Chris Grier’s gamble on a franchise quarterback started going bust. Tua missed the next four games as Miami skid to 2-6 at the trade deadline. Against weaker defenses, Tua showed he still had some flash left in the pan. A three touchdown performance against the Las Vegas Raiders, followed by a four touchdown outing against the New England Patriots. It wasn’t enough to propel Miami into the playoffs, and by that point? Tua was playing well against injury-riddled defenses in meaningless games. Tua missed the last two games against the Browns and Jets respectively, capping off a disappointing season marked by what could’ve been.
Then came 2025. Whatever glue and duct tape were being used to hold the Dolphins’ offense together fell apart. Tua looked dreadful in the season opener against Indianapolis. One touchdown. Two picks. Tua didn’t look anything like the 2023 Tua we came to know and love. His throwing mechanics, whether it be natural regression or injury-forced bad habits, looked completely out of wack. He overthrew receivers. Threw into double coverage. He looked shellshocked or skittish in the pocket. Things didn’t get much better when, in Weeks Two and Three, Tua threw backbreaking interceptions that sent Miami spiraling into an 0-3 record.
Injuries took hold of the Dolphins’ offense and defense. Most of their secondary spent time on IR. Tyreek Hill suffered a severe knee injury in the Week Four contest against the Jets, ending his season and tenure in Miami. Jaylen Waddle also proved to be injury-prone. Two of Tua’s weapons, one lost for the year, one inconsistently available, combined with clear regression from the quarterback position, proved disastrous. And their record reflected that.
Then came Cleveland. A cold rainy day at Huntington Bank Field played host to Tua’s worst career performance in his worst statistical season yet. Three interceptions. 100 yards total passing. All in a brutal 31-6 loss to the then-1-6 Browns.
More concerning was Tua’s attitude. Prior to the 2025 season, Tua was known as an affable, PR-trained quarterback who stayed free from media controversy. That changed following a 29-27 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Tua used his media availability to throw fellow players under the bus, citing their alleged lateness to players-only meetings. He called it a “leadership” issue and a lack of communication between players and coaches on what’s expected of them.
It’s not what was said, but how and where it was said. For a $212 million quarterback to publicly criticize leadership, when he himself is the leader of the sixth worst offense, did not sit well with fans and media.
The writing on the wall can be traced back to 2024, when during contract negotations, Tua playfully quoted Rod Tidwell from Jerry Maguire—“Show me the money!”–during a training camp segment in Miami. Nothing too offensive, but there seemed to be an attitude shift after the $212 million extension. Tua’s appeared nonchalant about the game of football. One particular post-game comment raised eyebrows in the Dolphins’ fandom:
“Whether I throw five interceptions or five touchdowns, we win the game, we lose the game…I get to come home to my kids who are happy to see me.”
On the surface, it’s an innocuous, wholesomely understandable thing to say. To separate work from family is a precious gift. On the other hand, he’s not paid $212 million to throw five interceptions, or lose games. Miami fans were divided; some took this comment as a man thankful for his support network while others took the comment as an apathetic halfhearted approach to the game.
Things came to a head during the Week 14 contest against Pittsburgh. After starting the season 2-7, Miami rattled off four consecutive wins and had a chance to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Instead, Miami’s offense never got going. Their offensive output can be summarized in one play early in the 1st Quarter. Miami’s first offensive drive into Pittsburgh territory ended when Tua overthrew Jaylen Waddle, sailing a pass into the waiting arms of Asante Samuel Jr. Then, in the closing moments of the 28-15 loss as Miami’s playoff chances slipped away, Tua was seen laughing on the sidelines.
Coach Mike McDaniel, who’d previously given his unconditional support towards his Franchise QB, said “everything was on the table” and Tua’s performance was “not good enough” in the following press conference. The next week? Rookie Quinn Ewers was under center. Tua’s worst statistical season (20 TDs, 15 INTs and a QBR of 88–his lowest since his rookie year) came to an unceremonious close.
It’s worth noting that a side effect of chronic traumatic encepholaphy (CTE) is a drastic change in personality and physical mechanics. Whether Tua’s recent behavior is a result of that, the money, or fatigue of the game–is a mystery.
McDaniel was fired. GM Chris Grier was shown the door after the Baltimore loss. The West Coast Hybrid powerhouse was no more. Jeff Hafley and Jon-Eric Sullivan, both of Packers ilk, were hired to fill the GM and coach roles respectively. There’s been wide speculation as to what the new Dolphins front office will do with Tua, including trade talks and downright releasing him. A post-June 1st cut will result in a $67 million cap hit for the Dolphins who are trying desperately to rebuild the culture and team in South Beach. The writing’s on the wall; if he’s not traded or cut, and barring a miraculous resurgence in 2026-27, Tua’s gone.
For Dolphins’ faithful, the post-Marino quarterback search continues. But let’s not forget the magic of the 2023-2024 season, when it looked like Tua was ready to bring the Dolphins back to relevance. It was fun. Had it’s own little charm to it.
In the wise words of many, “Don’t cry because it’s over. Smile because it happened.”
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