After several years of mediocre play, the Boston Red Sox appear poised to jump right back into the upper echelon of talent in the league. Many are picking the team to make the playoffs, even make the World Series, after an offseason that saw them trade for an ace pitcher in Garrett Crochet and sign a plethora of solid, proven talent in free agency, most notably third baseman Alex Bregman.
However, one strategy that the Red Sox have deployed has gone under the radar more. Since Craig Breslow has taken over running baseball operations for the team, he has focused on extending young, exciting talent to lock them up through their arbitration years into free agency. These moves make headlines in the moment, but they shouldn’t make the same waves of a big trade or free agent signing.
The Boston Red Sox have made clear their intention to extend their young talent to lock them up before they enter free agency, a trend the entire league has been attempting to follow. Last season, Breslow began this process by extending two young, potential stars: Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela.
Bello received a 6-year deal worth $55 million, while Rafaela signed an 8-year deal worth $50 million. The year before, Rafael Devers was extended before he hit free agency, though he was a more established talent by then.
Extending players before they have proven themselves in the majors can be a risk, and both Bello and Rafaela highlighted that risk last season. Bello had a decent season, making 30 starts. The results were mixed, though; his 4.56 xERA and 3.87 xFIP (used to determine expected results regardless of fielding and park factors) are adequate but uninspiring, and an 8.48 k/9 is not great either. Given that it was his third season in the league, he needed to perform better to live up to the contract he was given.
Rafaela was only in his first season in the league, but he looked very overmatched in his first stint. His defense for the Red Sox was strong, as it always has been, but he struggled mightily against major league pitching. His pitch identification was the biggest problem, posting a 26.4% K rate with only a 2.6% walk rate.
Those ratios are unsustainable in the major leagues. Combined with minimal power, that led to a 79 wRC+ (runs per plate appearance scaled), 21 points below league average.
Despite lackluster performances, the Red Sox did not relinquish this strategy in 2025 either. Over the last week, Breslow and the front office extended two more young stars: Garrett Crochet and Kristian Campbell. On Tuesday, April 2, Crochet signed a 6-year, $170 million contract, with a season of control left. Meanwhile, Campbell had played less than a week in the majors before signing an 8-year, $60 million deal on Thursday (with two club options for additional years 9 and 10).
The Red Sox may feel that the pedigree of these two players is more established. Crochet has been successful in the league for a while, with a career 3.18 ERA, 2.78 FIP, and 3.09 xFIP that all indicate top-end pitching talent, with an 11.89 k/9 rate that ranks among the highest in the league. However, last season was the only year he pitched as a starter, and his durability and injury history raise some concerns.
Campbell, meanwhile, is a top-ranked prospect in the league. Nearly every national publication ranked him within the top 10 to 15 best prospects in 2025 after a 2024 minor league season that saw his meteoric rise through the Red Sox system. Signing him to a long-term contract just a week into his first major league career is still a risk, though, as many highly ranked prospects in the past never pan out.
The Red Sox have also discussed extensions with many other players. The other two of the big three prospects for the team, Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony, have been brought up. Homegrown talents with more experience, including Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Triston Casas, and Kutter Crawford, are also in the mix. 2023 saw the extension of Garrett Whitlock to a four-year deal, but he could be in line for something longer-term as well.
There is undoubtedly risk when a team signs players to an extension, especially those who have not yet established themselves as top forces in the major leagues. The reality is though, this is the strategy teams have to follow to have a sustainable model, unless they can maintain top prospect development year in and year out (e.g. Tampa Bay Rays).
For one, free agency is a tough spot to fill a roster. Not only are contracts going up to historic levels (see Juan Soto), but outside of a select few (ex., Soto, Roki Sasaki, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bryce Harper, Vladimir Guerrero, Shohei Ohtani), players do not make it to free agency until they are near or past 30. This means teams are signing players to their down years, not their peaks. More money and declining talent are not a recipe for sustained success.
Second, players want to feel loyalty. Rewarding players working hard at their craft is a way for teams to show that loyalty. If players know the team will stick by them and trust them, they are more likely to want to sign with that team as a free agent. That way, when teams do need to plug a hole, they have plenty of players seeking to sign with them and options for a direction to choose from.
Finally, and maybe most importantly for many teams, it saves money in the long term. The reality is that the more successful a player becomes, the more money an extension will cost. Locking up young players for their prime years at a discounted price is a sure way to make sure you have a healthy budget that is sustainable and can be supplemented with proven free agent talent as needed without busting over the luxury tax line.
Even if a player or two busts, the overall cost is not nearly as prohibitive as a free-agent bust becomes. One bad or mediocre season does not necessarily mean the player will bust. Rafaela, for instance, has shown real improvement this off-season that could make him a tremendous asset to the Red Sox for the 2025 season.
Bello is injured now but has worked hard to improve his control and pitch repertoire. Even if they do not become stars, they can still be depth pieces on a playoff team. The Red Sox cannot shy away from risky contracts if they want to be perennial contenders.
The Red Sox are building something great here. They are loaded with young star talent that pair with proven veteran support. They have a pipeline of prospects in the works on both sides of the ball that are ready to contribute to the big league squad. The team has money available to spend and pieces to make trades if they need to.
This is how you build a club for the long term, much like the Los Angeles Dodgers have done. Fans should be thrilled about Breslow’s direction for the team because it is precisely what they need to be doing. The Red Sox are building a winning club, one extension at a time.
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