NFL betting has become a hugely popular activity thanks to the arrival of online sportsbooks. Football fans can now easily access a range of odds on the top games, but how can using analysis techniques help them make better decisions?
What are advanced NFL metrics?
While standard football statistics tell us details such as the number of wins and points scored or total yards, advanced metrics go further to let us get a closer look at the quality of a team or player, and how this might translate into results.
Next Gen Stats (NGS) from the NFL are numbers that let us track the metrics for all players. These statistics cover details such as speed, time to throw, and passing completion probability. The NGS data is compiled through the use of small radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags in their clothing that capture real-time data.
For example, expected points added (EPA) tells you how many points we can expect to see added during a play. This is based on factors such as the current field position, which down it is, and the distance needed to earn a first down.
The defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) is another vital metric. It tells us how efficient a team is on plays, based on the league’s average and taking into account factors such as their current opponent and the stage of the game in terms of down and distance.
A team’s success rate is another useful metric, telling us what percentage of their plays are successful in different ways, such as gaining 50% of the remaining yards needed to get a first down. The Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) lets us see a quarterback’s completion percentage and compare it to what we should expect them to achieve.
How are they useful?
These metrics provide us with a way of more accurately assessing what might happen next in a game, or in a specific play. This level of information gives us new ways of looking for the best-value bets to place. You can use them to place moneyline bets or point spread bets, for example. Visit Oddschecker to find out more about NFL betting and to see the latest odds.
You can also look at over/under, player props and other types that can be analyzed using metrics. This NFL week 11 preview shows how there are some huge matchups coming along where both teams are keen to rack up wins, with injuries and varying form to take into account.
The numbers can then be used to attempt to find incorrectly priced odds. This can be where you notice that a team has been winning games despite having underwhelming statistics. It could lead to realizing that their odds of winning are overly generous, based on their results rather than the underlying performances.
On the other hand, you might see that a team’s performances have been good enough to get more wins, but that they’ve been unlucky. If you believe that a team is due a win, this might not be enough to convince you to bet on them doing so, but having numbers to back up the theory is going to make you feel far more confident about placing a wager.
How to find expected value
Expected value (EV) is a way of measuring the profit or loss you can reasonably expect to occur from a wager. While individual wagers are unpredictable, the EV is designed to let you see what the results should be when the same bet is placed numerous times, giving you an average result and an idea of the long-term profitability of your strategy.
The way that you calculate the EV is with the following formula:
EV = (Probability of Winning x Amount Won per Bet) − (Probability of Losing x Amount Lost per Bet)
If the result is positive, you should expect this wager to give positive results and a profit in the long run. However, a negative EV means that you can expect to lose over time.
These statistics can be used to understand the possibility a team has of winning. This should be expected as a percentage. Let’s say it works out as 60%. You then add this to the EV calculation as 0.60. Then calculate the amount you would win, which you can see directly in the betslip when wagering online.
The next step is to plug in the probability of winning (40%, translated to 0.40), and how much you would lose if your wager doesn’t work out, which is simply the best amount. This gives you a final score that takes into account all the relevant statistics and helps you process with more confidence.
Taking an analytical approach isn’t going to guarantee that you will win on all your bets. However, it’s a sensible way of calculating your chances of winning and spotting odds that offer good value.
