The Miami Marlins are at a weird time in their franchise history. Following a dismal 2022 season that saw a Cy Young winner in Sandy Alcantara, the team unexpectedly went to the playoffs in 2023. The team, minus Alcantara and Pablo Lopez, powered through a strong September after crashing in July and August. They were swept in the wild-card round by the Philadelphia Phillies.
They’re poised to do it again after an even worse 2024, when they lost 100 games and Jazz Chisholm Jr. at the trade deadline. It’s impressive to put the Marlins in the playoff conversation when they also lost Trevor Rogers at the deadline last year, Jesus Luzardo in an offseason trade, and Ryan Weathers to injury. Their current success warrants a deeper look and whether it can be sustained.
A roster filled with question marks usually never goes anywhere, or their streaks are short-lived. The team’s rotation was a significant talking point, given that the team still didn’t have Eury Perez, and Alcantara just returned from Tommy John surgery. It didn’t help that Weathers was down for a moment with a forearm strain, and closer Tanner Scott was now with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
In March and April, the rotation had four pitchers with ERAs over seven, and a collective team WHIP of 1.59. There were some bright spots, including Anthony Bender and Lake Bachar in the bullpen, but their poor rotation overshadowed their success. Max Meyer started strong, but ended up getting hip surgery and sidelining him for the season.
Between May and June, the Marlins’ pitching staff would begin to see more bright spots emerge. Edward Cabrera, who started with a 7.23 ERA in April, suddenly registered an ERA under three in May and June. At the same time, Bender continued to pitch well. Eury Perez also returned to the rotation in June.
The team posted its best month with pitching, throwing a team-wide 2.60 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The strikeout rate increased, while their walk rate crashed to under three per nine, and the home run rate crashed to one-half per nine. The entire rotation, excluding Alcantara, had a collective ERA under three, while the bullpen also featured an effective closer-by-committee.
Their rotation finally has stability after injuries and trades thinned out the staff. At the same time, they might have found a solid closer in Anthony Bender, who isn’t eligible for free agency until 2028. Calvin Faucher, who came to Miami in an offseason trade before the 2024 season, is pitching much better than he did in Tampa Bay. For now, their staff is good, but not spectacular.
For a team that didn’t make any major moves in the 2025 offseason, the team’s lineup has held its own. The Marlins rank ninth in batting average, middle of the pack in terms of on-base percentage and on-base plus slugging, and 12th in stolen bases. A notable number is that they rank fifth in strikeouts and slightly below average in walks. A spectacularly unspectacular offense is better than one that is stalled.
Month-over-month, the Marlins haven’t gotten any better, but they also haven’t gotten any worse. Their team OPS hovers around the .700 mark consistently, and they’ll steal around 15-20 bases a month. At the same time, the team usually achieves parity in its strikeout-to-hits ratio.
Despite their surprisingly consistent average play, the team’s ceiling is limited due to their lack of drawing walks. The rate of walks from the team’s lineup dropped from 89 in April to 62 in July, which might be hampered by the All-Star break. This keeps their OBP under .330 each month, something they need to increase.
A floor for the Marlins exists, and it could easily be here or just slightly below these numbers. What they lack is a true powerhouse in the lineup and a player who gets on base. Jesus Sanchez was traded to the Astros this year, and Luis Arraez was traded in 2024. If they address those two concerns, their ceiling increases dramatically at the plate.
Since June 13, the Marlins have held the second-best record in all of Major League Baseball behind the Milwaukee Brewers at 30-14. It’s easily the best record in the National League East since that time, with the Phillies and New York Mets holding 24-19 and 18-25 records, respectively.
Despite being just above average in OPS and slugging, their .325 OBP is the sixth-best in the league since that time. Their .260 batting average is the fourth-best, tied with the Houston Astros. Interestingly enough, they’ve scored the sixth-most runs in the entire league and the sixth-least strikeouts as well.
The NL Wild Card race remains competitive, with the Marlins six games behind the San Diego Padres for the last spot. With this year shaping up to be one of the more competitive ones, given the lack of a clear frontrunner, the Marlins have a legitimate shot to repeat their 2022 and 2023 window.
The team, again, traded away Sanchez at the deadline and didn’t make any meaningful moves at the deadline. They also decided to keep Cabrera on the rotation instead of trading him for prospects. It’s likely to confuse analysts, but it might be a sign the front office believes they can make a push. If they keep this streak up and just play baseball, it’s entirely possible.
The Marlins have some newfound confidence after sweeping the New York Yankees at home, starting August very strongly. Their second-half schedule pits them against some very tough teams, including the Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, and Detroit Tigers. If the team can somehow win those series or sweep these teams, they’ve earned a serious look in terms of October baseball.
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