The Texans vs Jaguars prediction from our desk is Jacksonville Jaguars 23, Houston Texans 20, a tight AFC South game at Wembley Stadium. That score is our own projection, not a model output. Jacksonville arrives at 4-1 after a last-second 19-17 win over the Eagles in London last week. Houston sits at 1-4, and Sunday’s game could decide whether their season turns around or slips away.
Jacksonville gets the edge for three reasons. The Jaguars own the NFL’s stingiest run defense, allowing just 63.8 rushing yards per game, while Houston averages 79.0 on the ground, 31st in the league. Trevor Lawrence has 10 touchdown passes against three interceptions. Jacksonville also has the shorter injury list.
Houston has a real argument to win, too. C.J. Stroud has thrown for 1,402 yards without an interception. The Texans crushed the Tennessee Titans 26-3 last week. In November 2025, Houston erased a 29-10 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Jaguars 36-29, with backup Davis Mills at quarterback.
Kalshi’s market priced Jacksonville at about 57% earlier this week, according to Covers. Our projection lands on a one-score game because the Texans’ pass rush gives them a path to keep it close.
Here are the lines from BetMGM as of Thursday evening, October 15.
| Market | Texans | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-105) | -2.5 (-114) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -143 |
| Total points | Over 42.5 (-108) | Under 42.5 (-111) |
DraftKings also has Jacksonville at -2.5. Odds move through the week, so check your sportsbook before kickoff.
The projected 43 combined points sit just above the 42.5 total, so there is no strong lean either way. The under has hit in eight of ten Jaguars games in London since 2018, per ESPN, and Houston’s weak run game favors a slower script. Against that, Jacksonville ranks 30th in passing yards allowed, and SportsLine’s model projects 45 points.
Houston Texans (three out, two questionable)
Jacksonville Jaguars (two out, one questionable)
Per NFL.com’s final report, Montgomery did not travel, so Woody Marks takes over as Houston’s lead back. Montgomery was averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. Dell practiced fully early in the week but also stayed home, so his return from injured reserve waits another week.
Jacksonville’s most important absence is on the offensive line. Left tackle Anton Harrison left the Philadelphia Eagles game with a knee injury and will have surgery after the trip. Walker Little steps in.
Will Anderson Jr. against Walker Little. Anderson leads the NFL with 7.5 sacks, and he now faces a replacement left tackle. Houston rarely needs extra rushers.
The Texans send four or fewer on 78.5% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league, and lead the NFL with 14 sacks that way. Lawrence has a 70.7 passer rating against the blitz this season, but Houston wins without it.
Stroud against Jacksonville’s pass rush. Houston’s line has allowed 14 sacks and a 34.7% pressure rate, according to Yahoo Sports. Left tackle Aireonta Ersery has given up four sacks and 16 pressures.
Jacksonville pressures quarterbacks in under 2.5 seconds on 19.7% of dropbacks, fourth in the league, per Next Gen Stats. Josh Hines-Allen has just 1.5 sacks but 14 pressures, and he has 6.5 career sacks against Houston.
Houston’s run game against Jacksonville’s run defense. The Jaguars allow only 2.9 yards per carry. With Montgomery out and the Texans’ ground game already struggling, Stroud must carry the offense behind that shaky protection.
Lawrence and Parker Washington against a thin secondary. Pitre is out and Ingram is questionable. Washington leads Jacksonville with 22 catches for 352 yards and four touchdowns, and he returned a punt 96 yards for a touchdown at Wembley in 2024.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Texans. Houston acquired the receiver from Arizona on Monday, and coach DeMeco Ryans confirmed he will play. ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime expects packages rather than a full workload, and the Texans may not define his role for a few weeks. The matchup is still inviting. Jacksonville has allowed 608 passing yards on throws of 15-plus yards downfield, the second most in the NFL, according to ESPN Research.
C.J. Stroud, Texans. Stroud ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards and has been sacked 14 times. His protection will decide whether the interception-free streak survives.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars. Lawrence has thrown a touchdown in each of his eight London starts and owns a 5-3 record in them, per AP. Jacksonville also committed 13 penalties last week, a habit that stalls drives.
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Houston’s 1-4 start makes Sunday a potential turning point. A loss would drop the Texans to 1-5, four games behind a 5-1 Jacksonville team. A win would pull the division back into view and give Harrison Jr. a flying start in Houston.
Jacksonville is tied for the second-best record in the AFC. Its run defense and Lawrence’s London form are why the Texans vs. Jaguars prediction leans toward Jacksonville, even with Anton Harrison out.
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