A rematch from last season, the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers will fight for the right to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Stars are on a quest for vengeance against the team that knocked them out in six games last year. Meanwhile, the Oilers are also on a revenge mission, just for a certain team in the East. Both teams exceeded expectations in the postseason, and sadly, one must be sent packing. This matchup will undeniably be close, but four keys could be the determining factor in deciding who will move on.
The narrative around these teams has seemingly flipped in just over three weeks. The Stars have been consistently praised for their depth scoring and pressure, while not having that elite superstar guy. Now, though, Mikko Rantanen has provided Dallas with that X-factor that they’ve needed in the past. A possible result of this has been that the depth hasn’t contributed nearly as much in recent years. Matt Duchene and Jason Robertson haven’t scored yet, and guys like Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment haven’t been as productive as they were in the regular season. To beat a team like the Oilers, these four guys will have to be firing on all cylinders.
Conversely, Edmonton has played an extremely well-rounded game through two rounds, and Connor McDavid’s production is still on the level of Rantanen’s. The bottom six is playing at a much higher level than what was initially expected of them, and they are a big reason Edmonton has won eight of its last nine. Whether or not that kind of production is sustainable will be answered as the series progresses.
Both of these teams entered the playoffs missing their best defenders. For Dallas, missing Miro Heiskanen was a bigger problem as they lacked reliable depth at his position. Luckily, they have gotten just about every guy to step up in a big way. Cody Ceci took on big-time minutes and looked solid, and the bottom pairing of Lian Bichsel and Alex Petrovic looked steady more times than not. Not to mention Esa Lindell’s penalty killing prowess or the top pairing of Thomas Harley and Ilya Lyubushkin, providing both defense and offense.
Now that Heiskanen is back and seemingly fully healthy, the Stars’ defensive core is looking quite scary. Many are still underrating it, though, so they still have much to prove.
The Oilers haven’t been as lucky as Dallas. After missing Mattias Ekholm for the entirety of the first two rounds, it was announced that he’d also miss the first two games of the WCF. That’s a big hit for a team that is already on the road, as they would love to have their best defensive defender back on the ice. Somewhat surprisingly, Edmonton’s defenders have looked mightily steady in his absence. All six guys have chipped in in some way, whether it be offense, defense, or even both. All three pairings look capable of locking down any one of Dallas’ lines, which could scream problems for the home team.
This is an obvious one. Last year, Jake Oettinger was outmatched by Stuart Skinner, and it resulted in the Oilers advancing. This year looks like it might be different, though. Oettinger has been a brick wall for the Stars and was the MVP of their round two series win against the Winnipeg Jets. He outclassed Connor Hellebuyck every step of the way and proved that he is an elite goaltender. He needs to find a way to continue playing in the form he has been, and not get rattled by a bad game or play.
The Oilers’ goaltending situation is one of the more peculiar storylines in the postseason. Out of the gate, Skinner played atrociously, which resulted in him getting yanked for Calvin Pickard. Pickard ended up going 6-0, albeit having slightly below average stats, and Edmonton was rolling. Then, he got injured, which forced Skinner back into the net. Whatever happened in between his first playoff start and now can only be described as sorcery, as he has posted two straight shutouts in games six and seven. The big question now is, will Skinner be able to replicate his performance against the Golden Knights, or will it be the LA Kings version of Skinner that shows up?
This is one of the more underrated and appreciated categories. Coaching in the NHL, especially in the NHL, isn’t as easy as it looks. When one team goes against another at least four times in a condensed period, the importance of coaching adjustments gets amplified. The home team gets last change, which can help them with line matchups. The counter to that is the away team’s coach needs to find a way to get around that.
An example would be Stars coach Peter DeBoer double-shifting Rantanen in game one of the Winnipeg series to get him away from the Adam Lowry checking line. This playoff run, the Stars and DeBoer have been especially good at making changes and adjustments on a night-to-night basis. The all Finish line didn’t play with each other until game three of the first round, and the bottom six have been shuffled around countless times. Another statistic to keep in mind, the Stars are yet to lose two games in a row during this playoff run. That is indicative of DeBoer’s adjustments.
Kris Knoblauch, the Oilers’ head coach, has also been phenomenal this postseason. He’s managed a defensive core that has looked stellar without their number one guy on the ice. His adjustments against the LA Kings played a key role in their 2-0 series comeback. The way he’s gotten guys to buy into his system has been a treat to watch, and he’s got that bottom six rolling right now. If he can outmaneuver DeBoer, the upper hand in this series could go to Edmonton.
This will likely be one of the best series in the playoffs. Two teams duking it out for a spot in the SCF, what more can you ask for? I am obviously biased, but I truly believe the Stars will win this one in seven. Oettinger has looked nearly unstoppable, and the power play is contributing to this playoff run. The Oilers are scary, though, as they are one of the hottest teams remaining. It won’t be easy beating them, as Knoblaugh has them playing like a well-oiled machine (pun intended).
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