It’s official. The two-seeded Dallas Stars will face the one-seeded Winnipeg Jets in the second round of the NHL playoffs. Both teams just barely made it, but now they will duke it out to advance to the conference finals. With question marks coming from both teams regarding injuries, who has the edge in this Central Division clash between two competitive teams? Once again, this could be a conference finals matchup in just the second round (thanks Gary Bettman)
These two teams have both had their fair share of injuries heading into and during the postseason. For Dallas, it’s been missing number one defenseman Miro Heiskanen, who’s been out since February with a knee injury. Then, in game 82 of the regular season, Jason Robertson, the team’s number one left wing, suffered a lower-body injury. Missing their number one offensive and defensive player for an entire series, and still making it out is no easy feat.
Their return dates are still unknown, but the Stars staff all seem optimistic that each will play at some point in round two. If Dallas was that good against Colorado without them, imagine a team with both those guys back in the lineup. Scary stuff.
Unfortunately for the Jets, things seem to be going in the opposite direction from the Stars. They will potentially be missing their number one defenseman and center. Josh Morrissey and Mark Scheifele have both been huge contributors to the team offensively and defensively. Losing those two for any amount of time in the second round could be bad news for Winnipeg. On the bright side, Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabriel Vilardi returned in the first round, and the Jets should be able to count on them to contribute more in the round two.
This goaltending matchup has a little higher stakes for Jake Oettinger and Connor Hellebuyck. Both players were on the Team USA roster during the 4 Nations tournament, with Hellebuyck earning (rightfully so) the starting position. Throughout one round of the playoffs, though, the backup Oettinger has looked worlds better than his starting counterpart. Hellebuyck was yanked in three of the seven games he played against the St. Louis Blues, while Oettinger actively kept the Stars in multiple games.
If the Jets want any chance of keeping the series in reach, Hellebuyck needs to dig deep and find his regular-season form. Hopefully, after a miracle goal kept Winnipeg’s season alive, Hellebuyck will be able to find his game. As far as Oettinger goes, he’s already played great, and so long as he isn’t losing Dallas any games, he will be just fine.
The regular season meetings between the Stars and Jets haven’t been particularly close. Outside of a 1-3 loss in December, Winnipeg has dismantled Dallas in each and every one of their matchups. In those wins, the Jets scored four goals in all three games, while the Stars were held to one goal or less. That’s even when the final two games had major seeding implications, as Dallas was trying to catch Winnipeg in the standings down the stretch. It’s hard to brush those games off as just regular-season fluff, as to them, it was a playoff-like game.
Even so, the actual postseason still plays very differently, less room and more physicality force teams to play differently . If Dallas can split one of the first two games in Winnipeg, their chances of moving on go way up. Just like in the Colorado series, all it takes is one game, one moment, for the Stars to overcome their demons and completely take over a series. For Winnipeg, all they should need to do is whatever it was when they crushed Dallas twice in a month.
To hoist the Stanley Cup, a team must go through a gauntlet of series. To sustain those series and still win the final game, a team needs to have quality depth that can hold its own throughout the ups and downs of the top six’s production. This philosophy has proven itself time and time again, just take the Florida Panthers, who have one of the deepest lineups in the league. In the West, Dallas has long been crowned the king of depth, their third-line center is Wyatt Johnston for Pete’s sake. Even beyond that, the Stars’ fourth line has come out rolling night after night and has been a force defensively.
The Jets roster is no slouch either. Before the Scheifele injury, Winnipeg was sneakily good down the middle. Where Winnipeg stands out in its depth is its physicality. Their bottom six is much more willing and able to lay the body than the Stars. The Jets are averaging an astonishing 46 hits per game through round one, crushing Dallas’ 29.71. It is entirely possible that the Jets’ bottom six will be able to gradually wear down Dallas, enough so that there won’t be enough gas left in the tank for them to finish out the series.
Special team play is amplified 10x in the postseason. Every power play opportunity is a chance to swing momentum, similarly to penalty kills, boosting the morale of the team. Taking a look at Winnipeg’s special team play through one round, it leaves much to be desired. Their PP is scoring 22.7% of the time, way down from their league-leading 28.9% in the regular season. The talent and level of play are there, the Jets just need to find it.
This is especially true because scoring on the man advantage will be harder than ever against the Stars’ penalty kill. They were already a top-five unit in the regular season, and they’ve only gotten better in the playoffs, against a strong Colorado team. They killed 86.4% of the Avs’ power plays, so good luck, Winnipeg.
The Jets don’t necessarily stand out on the kill like the Stars do either. They are currently killing PPs at a 76.9 percent clip, which is in the ballpark of their regular-season numbers. Unfortunately for Winnipeg, the Stars’ PP has found its stride at the right time. After struggling for most of the regular season, they are now scoring 30.4% of their man-advantage opportunities, including a game-seven winner. Whether or not this streak continues is yet to be seen, but as things currently stand, Dallas has a significant special-teams advantage.
This is going to be another fun series between two of the Central’s best. The Hellebuyck v. Oettinger matchup will be a fun narrative to watch throughout the series, as well as the injury returns from both sides. While I would have much preferred a Stars vs Blues matchup (and was two seconds away from it), I still do believe that Dallas will take this series in six. Yes, they struggled against Winnipeg in the regular season, but that’s much different than the playoffs. Just Ask Hellebuyck!
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