With the MLB All-Star break approaching, the Cincinnati Reds seem to be headed for another season that will end in September. Despite players like Elly De La Cruz, Andrew Abbott, and Chase Burns giving reason for fans to be excited, many are still focused on the Reds’ wild-card race.
Cincinnati is currently fourth in their division and outside of wild-card consideration, so do they even still stand a chance? Here’s the Reds’ 2025 Wild-card outlook, including internal problems and how other teams enter the fold.
Within their organization, Cincinnati has several hurdles to clear if they want to call themselves a wild card team. Their primary issue is injuries, as their number of players on the IL is now in double digits.
The biggest losses to the Reds currently injured include Hunter Greene, Jake Fraley, Ian Gibaut, Rhett Lowder, and Brandon Williamson. While the absence of both Fraley’s bat and glove is felt, the major blow is to the rotation and bullpen.
Greene is the most notable player missing, but the addition of multiple other pitchers is causing a ripple effect that’s seen in the Reds’ struggle on the mound. In July, they currently rank 25th in team ERA (5.55), 26th in WHIP (1.45), and 27th in opponents’ batting average (.282).
Simply put, since July began, they’ve been one of the absolute worst pitching teams in baseball. This is reflected in them entering the month at 44-41, having set themselves above the .500 mark, only for them to go 2-5 and end up right back at 50-50 with a 46-46 record.
They also still have series against the New York Mets (twice), Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers (twice), Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, and two apiece with the rest of their division. It may seem like an obvious answer to say that Cincinnati needs to play better and be healthy if they want a chance to reach the postseason, but how will the rest of the division play into it?
In the National League Central, the Reds are in fourth place and 8.5 games back from the leading Chicago Cubs. Following the Cubs are the Milwaukee Brewers (52-40) and the St. Louis Cardinals (49-43).
Chicago is a safe bet to win the division, as they not only have the best record but have also been playing like one of the best teams in the entire MLB. Milwaukee has a chance to overtake them, and (if the season ended today), would be a wild-card team.
St. Louis is right in the mix, too, sitting only a game and a half back from being a wild-card team themselves. Directly behind them is Cincinnati, three games behind the Cards, and four and a half games back from being a wild-card.
This is a grim preview for the Reds, as the rest of the teams in their division are (despite setbacks of their own) generally playing a significantly higher level of baseball. It doesn’t stop there, though, as the NL Central isn’t the only division making the wild-card chase as tight as it is.
The teams currently considered the NL wild-cards are the Mets (53-39), Phillies (53-39), Brewers, and San Francisco Giants (51-42). While Philadelphia and New York are tied (with one presumably taking their division), three of these four teams ending up in the wild-card is the most likely scenario.
This isn’t just because they’re currently there, either, as this group of teams has some of the easiest schedules this season. When looking at SOS, Milwaukee ranks 24th (.494), the Phillies rank 25th (.494), the Mets rank 29th (.491), and the Giants rank 30th (.490).
Cincinnati isn’t too far behind, sitting at 18th with an SOS of .498. They are, however, playing worse than the other teams with a more difficult remaining schedule.
Of these teams this month, the Reds are tied for the least amount of wins (two) with the most amount of losses (five). If they want to reach the postseason through the wild-card, they’re going to need to drastically right the ship.
As Cincinnati struggles with injuries and inconsistency, the rest of the teams in the NL wild-card chase are playing mostly well and beginning to pull away. It helps that they have easier schedules, but the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals are all distinctly in front of the Reds in this race.
Cincinnati’s probability of reaching the postseason is growing slimmer and slimmer with each passing day. Even if they start to play better immediately, and all of their injured players return as soon as possible, they will still need everything else in the NL to break their way.
The Reds have likely wasted another one of De La Cruz’s years with them, but the season is by no means over. It may seem impossible with Cincinnati’s history of missing the postseason, but there’s still a small chance they could end up in the wild-card if everything goes their way.
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