The Boston Red Sox are making no secret of their desire to sign outfield Juan Soto. Recent reports indicate that the team has asked to meet with Soto and his agent Scott Boras, with a checkbook open, ready to write any number the player desires. That number is expected to be in the vicinity of what the Los Angeles Dodgers gave Shohei Ohtani, $800 million. The big question is, why the Red Sox want Soto so badly?
One possibility would be, that they can stick it to their arch nemesis New York Yankees. Another possibility is that they want to show the fans they aren’t afraid to spend money like they used to in the old days. One thing for sure, is they aren’t trying to sign him to win games, make the playoffs, and maybe even the World Series, because signing him wouldn’t do that for them.
It’s impossible to predict the future, so when signing any player, you can only go off the past. No past performance is more relevant than the past season. In 2024, Juan Soto posted a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 7.9. This means that having him in the lineup would yield 8 more wins than the average outfielder (or an outfielder with a WAR of 0.0). The worst starting outfielder for Boston last year would be Tyler O’Neil, with a WAR of 2.6. This means if the Red Sox replaced O’Neil with Soto, they would win 5 more games in 2025 than they did in 2024.
Last season, Boston went 81-81, finished third in the AL East, and missed the playoffs. A five-game swing in the positive would make them 86-76, and based on last year’s finishes, that would put them third in the AL East, and they would miss the playoffs. In other words, the team is looking to spend $800 million, so that they won’t improve at all. It doesn’t seem like a good way to spend money. If Boston is really interested in getting better and having a shot at a title, they could allocate those funds to several players that would have a bigger impact.
There are five players to Red Sox could sign, that have better WAR than their current players, that could get the team into the playoffs, and at least a shot at a title. These are all free agents, and they would still have the ability to bring up hot prospects or trade for players who are still under contract. The first signing they could make, especially if they really want to get a Yankee, is second baseman Gleyber Torres. He has a WAR of 1.8, and their current second baseman Emmanuel Valdez posted a WAR of -0.6 last year. Torres’ contract is expected to be four years and $80 million, and adding him adds 2.4 wins to the roster.
First baseman Dominic Smith was the A in WAR last season, posting a 0.0. New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso had a WAR of 2.6 and is expected to demand a 5-year deal in the vicinity of $125 million. The last position player the team could sign would be Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez (4.3 WAR) to replace Tyler O’Neil, giving the team another 1.7 wins.
Finally, the team needs to address the starting pitching situation. Cooper Criswell and Bryan Bello had a combined WAR of 2.2 last season. Corbin Burnes will likely get north of what Blake Snell got from the Dodgers, so expect five years and $200 million to secure his 3.4 WAR, and then four years and $100 million for Dodgers free agent Jack Flaherty (3.1 WAR), and you’d have a team that is 11 WAR better than they were last season. That’s 92-70, good for second place in the AL East, and it would cost a grand total of $600 million.
That’s right. The team could get 100% more production and save $200 million if they choose to let Soto walk (especially to the National League) and build out their roster instead. This isn’t even factoring in the 8 losses the Yankees could face by losing Soto, potentially putting Boston atop their division. That may fly in the face of how billionaires think, but that’s because it’s practical and logical.
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